by Chuck Sommers
Tuesday, Oct 26, 2021
Game time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, Greenville, NC
Where to watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: East Carolina -9.5
BetMGM: East Carolina -9.5
Caesars: East Carolina -9.5
Season record
South Florida: 2-5 (1-2 AAC)
East Carolina: 3-4 (1-2 AAC)
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USF - ECU preview and analysis
Last week
USF: won 34-14 vs. Temple on Oct. 23
East Carolina: lost 31-24 (OT) at Houston on Oct. 23
The South Florida Bulls and East Carolina Pirates aren’t going to compete for an American Athletic Conference, but this is an important game for the bowl game implications for both programs.
Both schools are coming into this week on rather interesting slides. The Pirates have dropped two straight after winning three in a row, including a one-touchdown loss at the Houston Cougars that followed a four-point loss at the UCF Knights.
ECU quarterback Holton Ahlers had one of his better games of the season by passing for 278 yards and two touchdowns, but the Pirates couldn’t generate anything on the ground with 82 rush yards combined on 35 carries. The one-dimensional offense couldn’t keep with the consistency despite Ahlers throwing no interceptions in the loss.
The Pirates, despite being favored by almost double digits this week, has not had a defense consistent enough to believe in. ECU has allowed nearly 281 pass yards per game, which could be an opening USF’s anemic passing attack could exploit; the Bulls have averaged just under 170 passing yards per game heading into this matchup.
But USF’s defense hasn’t been any better in that regard. For a unit that gives us 464 yards per game, 262.6 of them have come through the air while the Bulls have given up 32.3 points per game. USF is on the books for being outscored by 10 point per game, while ECU is only giving up 28.4.
But it’s the South Florida ground attack that paves the way. Running backs Jaren Mangham (152 yards, 1 TD) and Kelley Joiner (126 yards, 1 TD) set the tone for a whopping 421 total rushing yards in a 20-point victory over the Temple Owls last week. Bulls quarterback Timmy McClain had enough of a day where he didn’t have to overdo it (10 of 13, 71 yards, 1 TD).
Receiver Jimmy Horn Jr. had a team-high seven receptions for 56 yards, showing that USF actually has some wherewithal to actually pass the ball. But the only way the Bulls hang in this game is if they have another 400-yard day on the ground.
Prediction
With October winding down, there’s not much to this game and we know which group is the better of the bunch. The ECU pass rush can still make a difference if it stifles the USF running attack. The Pirates win this by a couple of scores, get back to .500 and inches closer to postseason play. ECU by 17
Betting trends
South Florida is 4-14 ATS since 1992 on Thursday games.
South Florida is 2-10 ATS the past three seasons following a win against the spread.
East Carolina is 1-7 ATS in its last eight off two covers where it lost as an underdog.
ECU is 3-1 in its last four ATS following a loss of seven points or less against a conference opponent.
Statistical leaders
USF:
Passing: Terry McClain -- 1,000 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT
Rushing: Jaren Mangham -- 416 yards, 12 TD
Receiving: Xavier Weaver -- 380 yards, 1 TD
ECU:
Passing: Holton Ahlers -- 1,763 yards, 10 TD, 6 INT
Rushing: Keaton Mitchell -- 677 yards, 4 TD
Receiving: Tyler Snead -- 476 yards, 2 TD
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
