USC Trojans vs TCU Horned Frogs Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 12/30/2025

Game Time: 9:00 pm ET, Tuesday, December 30, 2025

Venue:  Alamodome, San Antonio, TX

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  USC -6.5, TCU +6.5; Over/Under:  55.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  USC -6.5, TCU +6.5; Over/Under:  55.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  USC -6.5, TCU +6.5; Over/Under:  55.5 points

USC Trojans:  9-3 (7-2) (5th place, Big Ten)

TCU Horned Frogs:  8-4 (5-4) (9th place, Big 12)

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USC Trojans:  won their last game at home against the UCLA Bruins 29-10.

TCU Horned Frogs:  won their last game at home against the Cincinnati Bearcats 45-23.

USC is entering this game with a 9-3 record overall and they have a 7-2 record in their conference games too. They are 7-0 in their home games, 2-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, and they will be at a neutral site for this game. They won their last game against UCLA 29-10. Jayden Maiava was the starting QB and he completed 21/29 passes for 257 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. King Miller led the team in rushing yards with 124 and 2 TDs. Ja'Kobi Lane led the receivers with 52 receiving yards on 3 receptions. Desman Stephens II led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 0 assisted tackles while Jide Abasiri led the defense in sacks with 1.5. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

TCU is entering this game with an 8-4 record overall and they have a 5-4 record in their conference games too. They are 5-1 in their home games, 3-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at a neutral site for this game. They won their last game against Cincinnati 45-23. Josh Hoover was the starting QB and he completed 19/22 passes for 306 passing yards, 4 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Jeremy Payne led the team in rushing yards with 174 and 2 TDs. Eric McAlister led the receivers with 101 receiving yards on 8 receptions and 1 TD. Jordan Lester led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Paul Oyewale, Devean Deal, and Julius Simms each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have USC listed as a 6.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. USC has looked good in their games this season with their 9-3 record overall and their 7-2 conference record which had them in the top half of the Big Ten. They haven't played in any neutral site games this season so this will be their first, playing in the Alamo Bowl. Meanwhile, TCU has looked good in their games this season with their 8-4 record overall and their 5-4 conference record which had them in the top half of the Big 12. They haven't played in any neutral site games this season either so this will be their first. TCU is off a 45-23 win over Cincinnati in their last one and their offense has looked great this season, but they were not playing great to end the regular season with their defense giving up a ton of points. Their defense has been a big issue for them all year and USC had one of the best offenses in the Big Ten this year. USC is off a 29-10 win over UCLA in their last one and they weren't able to compete with some of the top teams in their own conference, but they still finished near the top as they had a really good team. Their defense didn't look great at times, but they were playing better to end the regular season and their offense is going to do a lot of the heavy lifting in this game. USC still has a chance to get to 10 wins with a win in this game so look for them to bring their best effort against an up and down TCU team that had a bad defense all season. The best way to place a bet here is on USC to cover the spread in this game. 

USC TCU Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Tuesday, December 30, 2025 (9:00 pm ET start time) is USC 41 TCU 21.

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USC Trojans: 2-9 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. 3-12 ATS off a win against a conference rival. 4-8 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. 7-3 OVER when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 10-5 OVER off a win against a conference rival.

TCU Horned Frogs: 9-2 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. 6-1 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. 6-3 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 yards/game or more. 8-4 UNDER when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 6-3 UNDER after a win by 17 or more points.

USC Trojans:  M. Lemon (WR) Out - Personal. P. Brown (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. B. Fitzgerald (S) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Jarrett (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. O'Connor (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. E. Paige (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Noa (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. W. Jordan (RB) Questionable - Ankle. C. Chittenden (K) Questionable - Undisclosed. E. Sanders (RB) Out - Knee. C. Johnson (CB) Out - Knee.

TCU Horned Frogs:  J. Dwyer (WR) Out - Foot. K. Lemmermann (K) Questionable - Undisclosed. B. Whatley (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. E. Small (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. L. Lingard (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Jones (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. E. Jackson (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Jamerson (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Helm (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Hayes (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Coppinger (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. B. Clark (S) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Barnes (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Ezukanma (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Jackson (S) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Abrams (LB) Out - Leg.

"That was a fun night in the Coliseum right there. Another phenomenal atmosphere. One of the things we talked about earlier in the season with this team was protecting our home, and there's two parts of that. It's one, that us as a program, playing well at home. And then the flip side of that is the Coliseum lit up like it was tonight. There was a major factor in the game. Again, it was an awesome, awesome atmosphere. It has been all year.” - Lincoln Riley after his team’s win against UCLA in their regular season finale.

“Our fans are very excited for this opportunity to play against USC, one of the great programs in all of college football. We’re very excited about the opportunity to go to San Antonio and stay in the state of Texas.” - Sonny Dykes on his team playing in the Alamo Bowl.

WR Richardson, Jaden

WR Williams, Zacharyus

WR Hines, Tanook

TE Lyons, Walker

QB Maiava, Jayden

RB Jordan, Waymond

WR Dwyer, Jordan

WR McAlister, Eric

WR Manjack IV, Joseph

TE Rogers, DJ

QB Hoover, Josh

RB Barnes, Kevorian

Passing: Jayden Maiava (3,431)

Rushing: King Miller (873)

Receiving: Makai Lemon (1,156)

Touchdowns: Makai Lemon (13)

Passing: Josh Hoover (3,472)

Rushing: Kevorian Barnes (550)

Receiving: Eric McAlister (1,121)

Touchdowns: Eric McAlister (10)

Coaches:

USC Trojans: Lincoln Riley (4th season)

TCU Horned Frogs: Sonny Dykes (4th season)