Game Time: 7:00 PM ET, Thursday, January 6th, 2022

Venue: Haas Pavilion, Berkeley, California

Where to Watch:  FS1

 

DraftKings Sportsbook:  NL

Caesars:  Spread: NL

VegasInsider:  Spread: NL

BetOnline: Spread: NL

Opening line:  USC -5.5

USC: 2-0 conf, 12-0 overall.  (Pac-12)

Cal: 2-1 conf, 9-5 overall. (Pac-12)

A Pac-12 matchup of opponents that have history.  The Pac-12 doesn’t get much respect in the world of college football lately, but college basketball is a different story.  The Arizona Wildcats is a monster, UCLA is a monster, the California Bears are a good team… but the USC Trojans are a new monster.  Over the last few seasons USC has built a reputation for producing NBA players… and as a result the star recruits are giving them a look.

The USC Trojans are #1 in the Pac-12 AND undefeated in 12 games. Their star player is Forward Isaiah Mobley who just so happens to be the brother of Cleveland Cavalier NBA rookie of the year candidate Evan Mobley… the brothers were teammates last season here at USC when Evan was clearly the star.  This year it is Isaiah’s turn.  Now don’t get too impressed the Trojan record is seriously aided by wins over actual nobodies: Eastern Kentucky, Long Beach State, University California Irvine, Dixie State, FGCU… you get it.  The Trojans really have only beaten 4-5 teams worth playing… Georgia Tech, Utah, Washington State, … you get it.  At the moment they are 10-0 over their last ten games and 6-4 ATS over their last ten.  They will have to dig deep as the roster is not equivalent to UCLA’s or Arizona’s.  Still they are a good team capable of winning.

Cal is on a 5-game winning streak.  Their last loss was to the Utah Utes on December 5th.  The final score was Utah 66-58… it’s the same Utah team that USC beat 93-73.  That is a direct comparison against the same team that makes Cal look like a serious underdog in this matchup.  Cal F Andre Kelly is leading Cal in ppg, rpg, FG% and blocks… Cal will need Andre to dominate USC’s Isaiah Mobley or it will be an easy night for USC.

 

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USC is 12-0 on the season, but 7-5 ATS.  They have logged 4 Overs and 8 Unders.  They are 3-0 on the road.

Cal is 9-5 on the season, but 11-3 ATS.  They have notched 7 Overs and 7 Unders.  They are 9-1 in home games.

USC is 98th in the nation in scoring with 75.9 ppg, 6th in rebounds with 39.8 per game, and 20th in AST/TO ratio with 1.5.  They are shooting 48.8% FG and 35.2% in 3PT… The absolute hole in the game is the terrible 58.4% from the free throw line.

Cal is 284th in points with 66.9 per, 136th in rebounds with 34 per, 215th in AST/TO ratio with 1.0.  They are shooting 44.7% FG and 35.5 3PT%.  The advantage is at the foul line where Cal shoots an average 71.7%... It ain’t great but it is much higher than USC.

 

USC defense is good ranked 31st in the nation while only giving up 60.7 ppg… and 2nd in the nation in defending FG% only allowing 35.2%

Cal ranks 41st on defense only allowing 61.6 per game.  

Our prediction for Thursday, January 6th is… USC 73 - Cal 62

USC will beat Cal… the guard play at USC is better.  If Cal wants a better chance they should employ a hack-a? Strategy.  Whoever on USC is dragging the FT% down to a coinflip should be put on the line 10 times in a row in the first half to give Cal the lead on possessions and momentum.  However no one ever really does that at the college level.

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USC is 14-7 ATS versus Cal since 1997.

Cal is 1-0 ATS versus USC at Cal the last 3 seasons.

That one game went Over.

USC: F Max Agbonkpolo (covid) Out

Cal: F Monty Bowser Out, F D.J. Thorpe Out

USC: G Boogie Ellis, G Chevez Goodwin, G Drew Peterson, G Ethan Anderson, F/C Isaiah Mobley

Cal: G Joel Brown, G Jordan Shepherd, F Kuany Kuany, F Grant Anticevich, F Andre Kelly

USC

Points: Isaiah Mobley 15

Assists: Drew Peterson 3.7

Rebounds: Isaiah Mobley 9.6
Steals: Boogie Ellis 1.0

Blocks: Joshua Morgan 1.2

Cal

Points: Andre Kelly 14.6

Assists: Joel Brown 3.1

Rebounds: Andre Kelly 8.6

Steals: Jordan Shepherd 1.2

Blocks: Andre Kelly 0.6

USC: Andy Enfield

Cal: Mark Fox