by AAA Sports
Saturday, Jul 15, 2023History tells us that several of the NFC teams that were on the outside looking in during the playoffs last year will trade places with a few other teams this coming post-season. That’s good news for the teams in the NFC North and South, which each sent only one team (Minnesota, Tampa Bay) to play in January. Here’s a look at last season’s nine also-rans, and their odds of making it to the playoffs six months from now:
ARIZONA (Yes +1100, No -2000) – Everything depends on QB Kyler Murray and whether he will be fully recovered from ACL surgery. Murray is bullish on the Cardinals’ prospects after last season’s disaster (4-13 overall, one win at home), but he appears to be the only one showing optimism. Most everyone else believes Arizona will once again wilt in the desert heat.
ATLANTA (Yes +105, No -125) – With Tom Brady gone, the NFC South is wide open. Can the Falcons separate themselves from a mediocre pack and replace the Buccaneers at the top? Who knows, but the arrow appears headed in the right direction. It looks like Atlanta will go with Desmond Ridder at QB, after Ridder got some last run in 2022 as the Falcons moved on from Marcus Mariotta.
CAROLINA (Yes +210, No -250) – Seems like a millennium ago that the Panthers were 3-0 and creating all kinds of buzz, but a 2-12 finish in 2022 tossed cold water on all that. Now the buzz is centered around QB Bryce Young, the overall No. 1 pick. But even if Young is the real deal, getting Carolina to the 9- or 10-win mark needed for the post-season seems like a bridge too far, even in the talent-challenged NFC South.
CHICAGO (Yes +160, No -190) – Perhaps no team in the NFL will experience more roster churn than the Bears, who used cap space to sign a bevy of free agents. The O-line in front of Justin Fields should be better, but the defense looks like a crapshoot. Newcomer DJ Moore gives Fields a legit WR1 to throw to, but much of the offense will still be built around Fields’s ability to scramble.
DETROIT (YES -165, No +140) – The Lions were a solid 12-5 ATS last season and one win away from the playoffs, so it wouldn’t take a quantum leap this season to get to the post-season. All eyes will be on a D-Line that could be the best in the league. On offense, they will be content to let Jared Goff manage things as they grind out yards on the ground.
GREEN BAY (Yes +190, No -225) – After three decades of seeing either Brett Favre or Aaron Rodgers under center, the Pack will now turn to ever-patient Jordan Love. Missing the playoffs last season was a culture shock for Pack fans, and with Rodgers now in New Jersey, hopes aren’t exactly high. But there is experience and there is a good amount of talent, and the NFC North is not exactly loaded.
LOS ANGELES RAMS (Yes +300, No -370) – It could get ugly early in LA. The Rams have made a concerted effort to get a lot younger, shedding veterans and bringing in a sea of newcomers just two years after winning the Super Bowl. Where they wind up in an NFC West that figures to be dominated by the talented 49 is anyone’s guess.
NEW ORLEANS (Yes -180, No +155) – The Saints look like the best of a mediocre bunch in a weak NFC South, even with Derek Carr as a place-holder at QB after NO declined to break the bank for Lamar Jackson. It wouldn’t be a shock to see the Saints finish first – or last – in the division. A top-10 defense would make things easier for Carr.
WASHINGTON (Yes +300, No -370) – Controversial owner Dan Snyder is gone, and that’s a good thing. Plus, there is a lot of talent on the roster. But it’s NOT a good thing that Washington has the biggest QB question mark (Sam Howell) in a division in which the other three teams all made the playoffs and were a combined 20 games over .500.
ARIZONA (Yes +1100, No -2000) – Everything depends on QB Kyler Murray and whether he will be fully recovered from ACL surgery. Murray is bullish on the Cardinals’ prospects after last season’s disaster (4-13 overall, one win at home), but he appears to be the only one showing optimism. Most everyone else believes Arizona will once again wilt in the desert heat.
ATLANTA (Yes +105, No -125) – With Tom Brady gone, the NFC South is wide open. Can the Falcons separate themselves from a mediocre pack and replace the Buccaneers at the top? Who knows, but the arrow appears headed in the right direction. It looks like Atlanta will go with Desmond Ridder at QB, after Ridder got some last run in 2022 as the Falcons moved on from Marcus Mariotta.
CAROLINA (Yes +210, No -250) – Seems like a millennium ago that the Panthers were 3-0 and creating all kinds of buzz, but a 2-12 finish in 2022 tossed cold water on all that. Now the buzz is centered around QB Bryce Young, the overall No. 1 pick. But even if Young is the real deal, getting Carolina to the 9- or 10-win mark needed for the post-season seems like a bridge too far, even in the talent-challenged NFC South.
CHICAGO (Yes +160, No -190) – Perhaps no team in the NFL will experience more roster churn than the Bears, who used cap space to sign a bevy of free agents. The O-line in front of Justin Fields should be better, but the defense looks like a crapshoot. Newcomer DJ Moore gives Fields a legit WR1 to throw to, but much of the offense will still be built around Fields’s ability to scramble.
DETROIT (YES -165, No +140) – The Lions were a solid 12-5 ATS last season and one win away from the playoffs, so it wouldn’t take a quantum leap this season to get to the post-season. All eyes will be on a D-Line that could be the best in the league. On offense, they will be content to let Jared Goff manage things as they grind out yards on the ground.
GREEN BAY (Yes +190, No -225) – After three decades of seeing either Brett Favre or Aaron Rodgers under center, the Pack will now turn to ever-patient Jordan Love. Missing the playoffs last season was a culture shock for Pack fans, and with Rodgers now in New Jersey, hopes aren’t exactly high. But there is experience and there is a good amount of talent, and the NFC North is not exactly loaded.
LOS ANGELES RAMS (Yes +300, No -370) – It could get ugly early in LA. The Rams have made a concerted effort to get a lot younger, shedding veterans and bringing in a sea of newcomers just two years after winning the Super Bowl. Where they wind up in an NFC West that figures to be dominated by the talented 49 is anyone’s guess.
NEW ORLEANS (Yes -180, No +155) – The Saints look like the best of a mediocre bunch in a weak NFC South, even with Derek Carr as a place-holder at QB after NO declined to break the bank for Lamar Jackson. It wouldn’t be a shock to see the Saints finish first – or last – in the division. A top-10 defense would make things easier for Carr.
WASHINGTON (Yes +300, No -370) – Controversial owner Dan Snyder is gone, and that’s a good thing. Plus, there is a lot of talent on the roster. But it’s NOT a good thing that Washington has the biggest QB question mark (Sam Howell) in a division in which the other three teams all made the playoffs and were a combined 20 games over .500.
