by Chuck Sommers
Wednesday, Jan 19, 2022
Time: 9 p.m. ET
Venue: Clune Arena, Colorado Springs, CO
Where to watch: N/A
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: UNLV -6
BetMGM: UNLV -6.5
Caesars: UNLV -6
Season record
UNLV: 10-7 (2-2 Mountain West)
Air Force: 8-7 (1-3 Mountain West)
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UNLV - Air Force preview, analysis and prediction
You try to avoid Las Vegas puns when it comes to the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels, but then you find yourself really immersed in certain stats.
Like this one, for example: The Runnin’ Rebels have 10 wins this season. All have come when they’ve been favored. They have seven losses this season; all when they were underdogs.
So when you see something like that come about, you want to believe that UNLV will in fact take care of business against the Air Force Falcons, and that’s what I’m believing heading into Thursday’s matchup in Colorado Springs.
UNLV’s first season under Kevin Kruger has seen its ups and downs, but as of late the Runnin’ Rebels are on a 6-2 stretch and coming off an 81-56 win at San Jose State on Monday. Donovan Williams had a team-high 23 points on 9 of 13 shooting, pulling the weight left behind from leading scorer Bryce Hamilton (12 points on 4 of 16 shooting).
The Runnin’ Rebels are favored at most books by six points to open, which seems like a fair enough number to go for against a heavily struggling Air Force team that’s lost six of seven after losing 62-56 at Boise State on Tuesday.
This last decade of a slide for UNLV has not benefitted the Rebels in terms of being a good team against the spread, so the last few seasons might not be a good eye test to see how they fare. UNLV is just 6-10 against the spread this season and 34-39 over the past three seasons.
But then you look a bit further down and see how drastically bad the Rebels have been. UNLV is 1-5 in its last six following a win of 20 points or more against a conference opponent and 15-22 ATS following a win over the past three seasons.
That’s not to say Air Force has been any better. The Falcons are just 12-25 ATS following a stretch of three straight conference games; they’re also an abysmal 5-18 ATS following a stretch of losing six or seven of their past eight games.
UNLV’s defense has been hit or miss, but you have to feel good about where the Rebels are considering the Falcons have just scored 59 points per game. Air Force’s last four games have been decided by single digits, but I don’t see how Air Force keeps it close enough to cover. UNLV by 10
Betting trends
UNLV is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games.
UNLV is 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games against a team with a winning home percentage of greater than .600.
Air Force is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games.
Air Force is 11-1 ATS in its last 1`2 against a team with a winning record.
Projected starting lineup
UNLV:
PG: Jordan McCabe
SG: Josh Baker
SF: Bryce Hamilton
PF: Donovan Williams
C: Royce Hamm Jr.
SF: Bryce Hamilton
PF: Donovan Williams
C: Royce Hamm Jr.
Air Force:
PG: A.J. Walker
SG: Camden Vander Zwaag
SF: Ethan Taylor
PF: Jake Heidbreder
C: Lucas Moerman
SF: Ethan Taylor
PF: Jake Heidbreder
C: Lucas Moerman
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
