by Chuck Sommers
Tuesday, Nov 15, 2022
Time: 11 p.m. ET
Venue: Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, Honolulu, HI
Where to watch: TBD
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: UNLV -11
FanDuel: UNLV -10.5
BetMGM: UNLV -11
Caesars: UNLV -11
Season record
UNLV: 4-6 (2-4 Mountain West)
Hawaii: 2-9 (1-5 Mountain West)
The college football fun never stops and we're inching closer to conference championship season. A lot of big games are still to be determined in who will play whom and where, and our top-notch handicappers have been at the forefront for the last month or so providing you with the winners you need to head into December with some confidence in your pocket. How can you be so sure? Of course you have to look at the likes of Kyle Hunter going 20-8-0 over the last 30 days, as well as Will Rogers at 22-14-0 over the last month. What about Vegas Writer? He's sitting at 12-6-1 over the last 30 days since joining our team of champion handicappers that has been killing it everywhere this year. You see the success rate. You need to be on board to join our guys who can get you where you need to go for the homestretch of the college football season. Make sure you're keeping tabs here at bigal.com to find out what our champion handicappers are thinking in all sports!
UNLV - Hawaii preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
UNLV: lost 37-30 vs. Fresno State
Hawaii: lost 41-34 vs. Utah State
If you’ve followed the UNLV Rebels closely, you know that their whole season was predicated on these two final, winnable games. When UNLV got to 4-1 earlier in the year, the contingent following this miserable football program knew that if it could beat Hawaii and Reno, they’d go bowling for the first time in eight years. Well, no one mentioned that UNLV would lose five in a row, three of them in embarrassing fashion, and suddenly have their season come down to these final two weeks.
If you’ve followed the UNLV Rebels closely, you know that their whole season was predicated on these two final, winnable games. When UNLV got to 4-1 earlier in the year, the contingent following this miserable football program knew that if it could beat Hawaii and Reno, they’d go bowling for the first time in eight years. Well, no one mentioned that UNLV would lose five in a row, three of them in embarrassing fashion, and suddenly have their season come down to these final two weeks.
But alas, here we are with UNLV needing two wins to finish 6-6 and to go to a bowl game for the first time in the Marcus Arroyo era. But while the Rebels are taking on a Rainbow Warriors team that has lost four in a row, three of those losses have come by one score and this rivalry always tends to be one of those that has a crazy finish at the end.
The Rebels are getting healthy at the right time, which is also a byproduct of losing five in a row. Without quarterback Doug Brumfield for most of this slide, UNLV has reverted back to the pumpkin of yesteryear. And UNLV had a chance last week at home against a high-powered Fresno State team, but ultimately lost 37-30 because it had no idea how to stop Jake Haener. No one normally does.
Brumfield struggled to go 18 of 33 for 172 yards, but did run for 60 and a touchdown to complement Aidan Robbins running for 144 yards and a touchdown. The defense just couldn’t make enough plays to stop the pass-first attack of Fresno State.
Brumfield has been back for two weeks and hasn’t looked like himself, but the hope for UNLV is against this Hawaii defense that’s given up 442 yards per game that Brumfield can find his groove from earlier in the season. The sophomore quarterback has just nine touchdowns to four interceptions, but his presence also gets Robbins going, as the transfer is closing in on a 1,000-yard season, which seems incredible with this program, really.
This Hawaii team isn’t like the old teams that can throw the football for thousands of yards. It’s a team that scores under 20 a game and gives up 36. The last win the Rainbow Warriors had? About a month ago against the team UNLV faces next week: Nevada-Reno. You now see the situation that is presented to the Rebels at this current point in time.
Hawaii is coming off a 41-34 loss to a Utah State team that has somehow managed its way back to .500, I really had no idea until this moment that the Aggies were one win from a bowl game after the abysmal start to the season they had. Hawaii quarterback Braden Schager threw for 306 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions while completing 50% of his passes, because that’s efficient.
Prediction
UNLV is laying 11 here. There’s absolutely no reason why the Rebels should lose this game. It would be a shame for Arroyo to have two horrendous seasons to start his coaching career, and then completely falter down the stretch because he forgot how to coach. UNLV, this is your chance. Do not screw this up. UNLV by 21
Betting trends
UNLV is 11-2 ATS on Saturday the last two seasons.
UNLV is 6-0 ATS on the road after allowing 37 points or more the last game in the last 3 seasons.
UNLV is 6-0 ATS after a game where 60 total points were scored the last two seasons.
Hawaii is 25-43 off 2 straight conference losses since 1992.
Statistical leaders
UNLV:
Passing: Doug Brumfield -- 1,610 yards, 9 TD, 4 INT
Rushing: Aidan Robbins -- 850 yards, 9 TD
Receiving: Ricky White -- 560 yards, 4 TD
Hawaii:
Passing: Braden Schager -- 1,916 yards, 9 TD, 10 INT
Rushing: Dedrick Parson -- 687 yards, 10 TD
Receiving: Zion Bowens -- 386 yards, 3 TD
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
