UMass Minutemen vs. Temple Owls: Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 9/24/2022

Game time: 2 p.m. ET

Venue: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA

Where to watch: ESPN+

DraftKings: Temple -9

FanDuel: Temple -9.5

BetMGM: Temple -9

Caesars: Temple -9

UMass: 1-2

Temple: 1-2

UMass: won 20-3 vs. Stony Brook

Temple: lost 16-14 vs. Rutgers

It’s the battle between the irresistible force and … well, the irresistible force when the UMass Minutemen face the Temple Owls on Saturday in Philadelphia. And if you’ve ever been so torn to see a spread of nine favor a home team that’s not favored by two scores often, then does the college football world ever have the game for you?

Conventional wisdom would dictate you stay away from this game. We’re talking about two teams that combine to average 28 points per game. No, not one team having 28 points per game. Combined, as in UMass averages 13.3 and Temple averages 14.7.

If we’re looking at one thing to pinpoint why Temple would be favored by nearly 10, UMass’ defense has been truly incomprehensible. The Minutemen are coming off a 20-3 win at home against Stony Brook, the home opener for UMass, after losing to Toledo and Tulane by a combined score of 97-20. UMass has given up 33 points and 371 yards per game with a dead split down the middle in terms of rushing yards.

Historically speaking, UMass has not been a fun team to watch. As an underdog, the Minutemen are 4-54 all-time as a road underdog. That’s not against the spread. That’s straight-up numbers. On the road in general, UMass is 9-68 all-time away from the state of Massachusetts. Don’t even get into the spread with them. It’s almost a nearly guaranteed certified loss for UMass.

UMass is not going to pass the ball. They’re a running team that tries to pass but struggles. Gino Campiotti, which might be the greatest name ever for a quarterback, does not play like one. He was 10 of 15 for just 90 yards last week in the 20-3 win over Stone Brook. UMass, which averages 188 yards per game on the ground, had just 159 on 43 carries.

But it was the defense that made the difference with Jordan Mahoney taking a pass 95 yards back for a touchdown to put the game away.

Temple’s offense isn’t any better, however. This is a group that averages just 268 yards per game on its own, but is more of a passing offense than UMass. The Owls played a tough game but came up short against Rutgers on Saturday. Quarterback E.J. Warner threw for 215 yards and a touchdown, but Rutgers’ defense did just enough to squeak out their third straight win.

Temple has not been any better as a program over the last 30 years. Overall, the Owls are 124-230 since 1992. That is bad. Against the spread, the Owls are 6-16 in their last 22. Also not good. Where does everything look a bit different? Off an under. The Owls are 63-38 ATS since 1992 off an under, and they are 20-4 ATS after allowing 75 passing yards or less in their last game.

If you’ve never been happier as a Temple bettor against a team that can’t pass, you are in line for one thrilling Saturday, I reckon.

Whoever came up with the word reckon? Which state came up with that one? Weird.

If you don’t feel overly confident about taking Temple in this one, stay away. But I think the numbers fairly back up that Temple should handle business and get a win against a struggling UMass team. Temple by 20

UMass is 8-22 ATS after losing two of its last three games.

UMass is 6-11 ATS in its last 17 Saturday games.

Temple is 30-26 ATS in its last 56 as a home favorite.

Temple is 1-3 ATS off a home loss.

Passing: Gino Campiotti -- 129 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT

Rushing: Gino Campiotti -- 195 yards, 1 TD

Receiving: Cameron Sullivan-Brown -- 63 yards, 1 TD

Passing: E.J. Warner -- 388 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT

Rushing: Edward Saydee -- 98 yards, 1 TD

Receiving: Jose Barbon -- 172 yards