by Rod Pearson
Friday, Oct 13, 2023
Game Time: 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, October 14, 2023
Venue: Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA
Where to Watch: Big Ten Network
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: UMass +41.5, PSU -41.5; Over/Under: 54.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: UMass +41.5, PSU -41.5; Over/Under: 54.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: UMass +41.5, PSU -41.5; Over/Under: 54.5 points
Season Record
Umass Minutemen: 1-6 (0-0) (FBS Independents)
Penn State Nittany Lions: 5-0 (3-0) (2nd place, Big Ten East)
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Recent Form
Umass Minutemen: lost their last game at home against the Toledo Rockets 41-24.
Penn State Nittany Lions: won their last game on the road against the Northwestern Wildcats 41-13.
Umass Minutemen vs Penn State Nittany Lions Preview and Analysis
UMass is entering this game with a 1-6 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their conference games too. They are 0-4 in their home games, 1-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against Toledo 41-24. Taisun Phommachanh was the starting QB and he completed 20/31 passes for 272 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Kay'Ron Adams led the team in rushing yards with 157 and 1 TD. Anthony Simpson led the receivers with 140 receiving yards on 7 receptions and 1 TD. Noah Boykin led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while no one on the defense recorded a sack in that one. Juan Lua came away with the only interception for them in that game.
Penn State is entering this game with a 5-0 record overall and they have a 3-0 record in their conference games too. They are 3-0 in their home games, 2-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against Northwestern 41-13. Drew Allar was the starting QB and he completed 18/33 passes for 189 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Nick Singleton led the team in rushing yards with 80 and 1 TD. KeAndre Lambert-Smith led the receivers with 86 receiving yards on 4 receptions. Kevin Winston Jr. led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Zane Durant, Kobe King, Keon Wylie, Zuriah Fisher, Dani Dennis-Sutton, and Adisa Isaac each led the defense in sacks with 1. Daequan Hardy came away with the only interception for them in that game.
Umass vs Penn State Prediction
The current betting odds have Penn State listed as a 41.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Penn State is having a great season with their 5-0 record overall as they are ranked as a top 10 team in the nation. They are already 3-0 in their conference games and they have covered the spread in every game this year. UMass has been having the complete opposite season with their 1-6 record overall and they have been getting blown out in a lot of their losses since they are one of the worst teams in the country this year. Their defense isn't going to stand a chance against this Penn State offense as PSU will be able to score at will at home here while UMass struggles to move the ball and even get into scoring position against this great Penn State defense. The best way to place a bet here is on Penn State to cover the spread in this game.
Umass Penn State Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 14, 2023 (3:30 pm ET start time) is PSU 56 UMass 7.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Umass Minutemen: 3-10 ATS in a road game where the total is between 52.5 and 56. 1-6 ATS against Big 10 conference opponents. 6-1 OVER in all games. 10-3 OVER in a road game where the total is between 52.5 and 56.
Penn State Nittany Lions: 21-9 ATS in all games. 18-5 ATS as a favorite. 11-5 ATS in home games. 7-2 OVER as a favorite of 31 or more points. 28-12 OVER off 3 straight wins against conference rivals.
Key Injuries
Umass Minutemen: J. Gibson (WR) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. C. Davis (QB) Ques Sat - Abdominal. T. Rudolph (DB) Ques Sat - Upper Body. T. Baldwin Jr. (RB) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed.
Penn State Nittany Lions: M. Meiga (WR) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. J. Mahlert (WR) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. K. Allen (RB) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. H. Wallace III (WR) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. D. Kency (RB) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. M. Robinson (DE) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. J. Green (S) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. I. Harvie (OL) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. K. Kiesewetter (QB) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. T. Johnson (WR) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. A. Ford Jr. (DT) out for season - Undisclosed.
Notable Quotes
“They are 50/50 in the run-pass ratio, so you’re gonna have to have balance [on defense]. You gotta do a great job in the run game on the early downs, and obviously on third down you better be ready to handle it. They throw it around pretty good, and they run it well. The thing I like about the quarterback is he does a very good job of just dumping the ball down, getting it out of his hand, and giving the receivers a chance to make first downs.” - Don Brown on his team’s upcoming game against PSU this week.
“That was my message to the team. The first half is gone. Let’s play really well in the second half.” - James Franklin after his team’s win against Northwestern in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Umass Minutemen
WR Johnson III, George
WR Pope, Mark
WR Simpson, Anthony
TE Campiotti, Gino
QB Phommachanh, Taisun
RB Lynch-Adams, Kay'Ron
Penn State Nittany Lions
WR Cephas, Dante
WR Lambert-Smith, KeAndre
WR Clifford, Liam
TE Johnson, Theo
QB Allar, Drew
RB Singleton, Nicholas
Statistical Leaders
Umass Minutemen
Passing: C. Davis (886)
Rushing: K. Adams (661)
Receiving: A. Simpson (566)
Touchdowns: K. Adams (6)
Penn State Nittany Lions
Passing: D. Allar (1092)
Rushing: K. Allen (307)
Receiving: K. Lambert-Smith (372)
Touchdowns: N. Singleton (7)
Coaches:
Umass Minutemen: Don Brown (2nd season)
Penn State Nittany Lions: James Franklin (10th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
