UMass Minutemen vs New Mexico State Aggies Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 08/26/2023

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Saturday, August 26, 2023

Venue:  Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, NM

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  UMass +7.5, NMSU -7.5; Over/Under:  45 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  UMass +7.5, NMSU -7.5; Over/Under:  45 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  UMass +7.5, NMSU -7.5; Over/Under:  44.5 points

UMass Minutemen:  0-0 (FBS Independents)

New Mexico State Aggies:  0-0 (C-USA)

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UMass Minutemen:  N/A

New Mexico State Aggies:  N/A

UMass finished last season with a 1-11 record overall and they had a 0-0 record in their conference games as they are an Independent school.  They were 1-4 in their home games, 0-7 in their road games, and they were also 0-0 in their neutral site games last season, but they will be on the road for this season opener. Last season, their offense was averaging 12.5 points scored per game while their defense was allowing an average of 31.1 points per game. Their offense also averaged 265.8 yards per game while their defense was allowing an average of 369.6 yards per game. Brady Olson led the team in passing yards with 791, Ellis Merriweather led the team in rushing yards with 575, and George Johnson led the team in receiving yards with 402.

 

 

 

New Mexico State finished last season with a 7-6 record overall and they had a 0-0 record in their conference games as they were an Independent school last year but are no longer for this season.  They were 4-2 in their home games, 2-4 in their road games, and they were also 1-0 in their neutral site games last season, but they will be at home for this season opener. Last season, their offense was averaging 25.5 points scored per game while their defense was allowing an average of 23.9 points per game. Their offense also averaged 330.6 yards per game while their defense was allowing an average of 336.3 yards per game. Diego Pavia led the team in passing yards with 1450, Star Thomas led the team in rushing yards with 518, and Justice Powers led the team in receiving yards with 440.

The current betting odds have New Mexico State listed as a 7.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. New Mexico State finally broke out of their funk of being one of the worst teams in FBS last season under their new head coach Jerry Kill as they actually finished the regular season .500 and went on to win their bowl game. That was a huge step for them as a program and now they will be in an actual conference this season as opposed to being an Independent school so they are going to be looking to take another big step this season under Kill. UMass has been terrible for years and had another bad season last year but it is not going to get any better for them this season. They didn't have a good transfer portal this season and they are left in a worse position than they were last year. New Mexico State improved a lot last season under head coach Kill and they are only going to continue to improve this year as they look to win another bowl game and hopefully do well in their new conference making a strong 1st impression. The best way to place a bet here is on New Mexico State to cover the spread in this game. 

UMass New Mexico State Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, August 26, 2023 (7:00 pm ET start time) is NMSU 31 UMass 10.

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UMass Minutemen: 4-9 ATS in road games. 1-8 ATS as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points. 10-5 OVER as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. 34-27 OVER as a road underdog.

New Mexico State Aggies: 6-1 ATS as a favorite. 5-1 ATS as a home favorite. 5-1 OVER as a home favorite. 60-42 OVER in non-conference games. 

UMass Minutemen:  T. Baldwin Jr. (RB) Out Sat - Undisclosed.

New Mexico State Aggies:  None.

“It’s not a scenario where one guy won the job and the other guys didn’t really play exemplary, but I’m very happy and comfortable with the other guys as well. [Phommachanh] can run, he can throw it … we made the decision that he’s going to get us off on the right foot. He’s very controlled, got a nice way about him … he’s determined. He’s very determined to help UMass football be successful.” - Don Brown on Taisun Phommachanh starting their 1st game of the season.

"That worries me because you know that goes into leadership and everything else so only having seven seniors, they're good seniors but that is a concern. Experience is everything. You can't put a price on that you've done it for four years, or three years or two years." - Jerry Kill on his lack of seniors on the team coming into the season.

WR Johnson III, George 

WR Pope, Mark 

WR Simpson, Anthony 

TE Falayi, Eni 

QB Phommachanh, Taisun

RB Adams, Kay'Ron 

WR Akles, Reggie 

WR David, Kordell 

WR Brady, Jonathan 

TE Whitford, Thomaz 

QB Pavia, Diego 

RB Thomas, Star 

Passing: N/A

Rushing: N/A

Receiving: N/A

Touchdowns: N/A

Passing: N/A

Rushing: N/A

Receiving: N/A

Touchdowns: N/A

Coaches:

UMass Minutemen: Don Brown (2nd season)

New Mexico State Aggies: Jerry Kill (2nd season)