UFC Musings And Free Picks

Gutted? Absolutely, I was! Even though I didn’t place a bet, I was pumped for last week’s heavyweight title clash between Cyril Gane and Tom Aspinall. Aspinall’s status as a significant favorite didn’t dampen my excitement—I just wanted to see two of the world’s best heavyweights throw down. The moment arrived, but just as it kicked off, it was over. An eye poke from Gane led to a frustrating no-contest. Gane could argue he had the early edge, while Aspinall might claim he was just finding his rhythm. Regardless, a rematch is coming, and the buildup should carry some serious tension.

After the fight Dana White indicated he'd like to see a rematch as soon as possible: "The rematch is very interesting. Right here, right now, being honest – I never do this when it comes to talking about what next fight is going to happen – the rematch is what makes sense." Assuming Aspinall's eye heals in time, a December 6th date is tentatively being tossed around. Aspinall will be favored again but likely not by quite as much.

UFC Fight Night - Main Event

The main event for the November 1st Fight Night in Vegas doesn't have any household names. But I can pretty much guarantee that it'll be a lot better than last week's big fight. As of Monday afternoon, Steve Garcia is a -130 favorite against David Onama. These two featherweights are both on the rise. They’re positioned next to each other in the rankings — Garcia is No. 12, Onama is No. 13. So, the winner takes a step forward while the loser goes the other way. 

Onama, 14-2, is off four straight wins. The past three all came via unanimous decision. Both “The Silent Assassin’s” career losses also came by decision. He’s never been stopped. Onama is 31 years old and stands at 5-foot-10. Garcia, “Mean Machine,” is 18-5 and off six straight wins. His most recent victory was via decision but the previous five were all stoppages. The 6-foot fighter is 33 years old.

Garcia said this: “If you look at my history and my streak that I’ve had, I’ve been able to finish people within the first two rounds. It can be a little gritty, but for the most part, I’ve been kind of able to make it look a little bit cleaner. You look at Onama’s win streak – I have more of a finish streak, he has more of a win streak. It only turned to a win streak because I didn’t finish Calvin Kattar. If you compare the two, he’s had a lot more grittier, harder fights when it comes to trying to get the win, where mine’s kind of been more with ease, you can say.” 

Garcia’s words are accurate but do his “easy” wins prepare him properly? Or do Onama’s "grittier" fights have him more ready for what Saturday night will bring? Time will tell but I kind of like Onama! 

Favorite: Naciemento over Durden. At -185, I think Allan Nacimento is a bargain. He's won three in a row while Durden has dropped four of his past five, including each of his past two. Lay the price with the fighter with the forward momentum

Underdog: Wells over Gorimbo. At +114, as I thought he might be favored, Jeremiah Wells looks like very fair value.  Neither fighter has fought in 2025 and they're both off a loss. Though Wells (38) is four years older, this is a favorable matchup. He's capable of winning by submission and Gorimbo has been submitted three times.