UCLA Bruins vs. NC State Wolfpack: Holiday Bowl Prediction & Game Preview - 12/28/2021

by Chuck Sommers

Monday, Dec 13, 2021
Game time: 8 p.m. ET; Dec. 28, 2021
Venue: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Where to watch: FOX

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: NC State -1
BetMGM: NC State -1.5
Caesars: NC State -1

Season record
NC State: 9-3
UCLA: 8-4

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UCLA - NC State preview and analysis


I can’t help but think we as a college football contingent were robbed of the UCLA Bruins playing in the Las Vegas Bowl.

That’s alright. The bowl committee did some good by making up for it, putting the Bruins in the Holiday Bowl against a very worthy North Carolina State Wolfpack team that was on the verge of the ACC Championship game this season.

UCLA closed the season on a three-game winning streak, but not against the most dominant of opponents; the Bruins won by at least three touchdowns against Colorado, USC and Cal following tough losses to Oregon and Pac-12 champion Utah.

The Bruins were one of the top offenses in the country at almost 37 points per game, led by quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson and his 30 total touchdowns. The Las Vegas native completed 62.2 percent of his passes and threw only six interceptions while accumulating over 3,000 total yards.

The senior quarterback playing his final game in Allegiant Stadium would have been a perfect end to a storybook career, but if anything, the end of DTR’s run should be classified as a much-needed resurgence in UCLA football. It was by far Chip Kelly’s best run in his fourth season in Los Angeles; the Bruins amassed at least four wins in his first three seasons.

Thompson-Robinson had the perfect complement on offense with running back Zach Charbonnet. The Junior tail back had a career season with 1,137 yards and 13 touchdowns after the Michigan transfer carried it only 19 times last season. Charbonnet went over 100 yards on seven occasions, including 167 yards and a touchdown against USC on Nov. 20.

Opposite Thompson-Robinson is a talented quarterback for NC State in sophomore Devin Leary. After a rough curve through his first two seasons, Leary threw for a career-best 3,433 yards and 35 touchdowns while completing 65.7 percent of his passes

The depth of the Wolfpack showed this year. Emeka Emezie led all receivers with 802 yards and six touchdowns on 60 receptions. Thayer Thomas also had 51 receptions to go with 596 yards, but Devin Carter was the big-play threat; he reached  556 yards but took only 31 receptions to do it.

They combined to create a passing attack that averaged over 288 passing yards per game and face a UCLA defense that has given up pretty close to that (260.2). The Bruins allowed fewer than 200 yards in three of their last four games and four in the last six, but the 325 against USC and 455 against Fresno State puts this defense in a bad spot.

Prediction


This should be a fun one between a good Pac-12 and ACC team. My gut tells me to go with the better quarterback at the end of the day . Leary gets it done with a late drive. NC State by 6

Betting trends


UCLA is 4-0 ATS in its last four after winning outright by 20 points in their previous game.

The over is 7-1 in UCLA’s games when facing a team with a winning record.

NC State is 5-0 ATS following an ATS loss.

Statistical leaders


UCLA:
Passing: Dorian Thompson-Robinson – 2,409 yards, 21 TD, 6 INT
Rushing: Zach Charbonnet – 1,137 yards, 13 TD
Receiving: Kyle Philips – 739 yards, 10 TD

NC State:
Passing: Devin Leary – 3,433 yards, 35 TD, 5 INT
Rushing: Zonovan Knight – 753 yards, 3 TD
Receiving: Emeka Emezie – 802 yards, 6 TD

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Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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