UCF Knights vs Cincinnati Bearcats Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 04/03/2025

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Thursday, April 3, 2025

Venue:  Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, NV 

Where to Watch:  Fox Sports 1

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  UCF +6.5, Cincinnati -6.5; Over/Under:  151.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  UCF +6.5, Cincinnati -6.5; Over/Under:  151.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  UCF +6.5, Cincinnati -6.5; Over/Under:  151.5 points

UCF Knights:  18-16 (7-13) (14th place, Big 12)

Cincinnati Bearcats:  19-15 (7-13) (13th place, Big 12)

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UCF Knights:  3-2  last 5

Cincinnati Bearcats:  2-3  last 5

UCF is entering this game with an 18-16 record overall, a 7-13 record in conference games, and they are 3-3 in their neutral site games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Oregon State Beavers in their last game. Darius Johnson, Tyler Hendricks, and Nils Machowski each led the team in points in that game with 15 while Moustapha Thiam was next on the team with 10. Dior Johnson led the team in assists with 4 in that game while Tyler Hendricks led the team in rebounds with 10. They were 41.8% from the field, 38.5% from 3-point range, and 71.4% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 79.2 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 80 PPG against them. UCF has an ATS record of 16-18 this season and their O/U record is 20-14.

Cincinnati is entering this game with a 19-15 record overall, a 7-13 conference record, and they are 3-1 in their neutral site games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the DePaul Blue Demons in their last game. Dillon Mitchell led the team in points in that game with 15 while Jizzle James and Day Day Thomas each were next on the team with 13. Day Day Thomas led the team in assists with 5 in that game while Dillon Mitchell led the team in rebounds with 7. They were 49.3% from the field, 42.9% from 3-point range, and 66.7% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 70.9 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 65.6 PPG against them. Cincinnati has an ATS record of 15-17-2 this season and their O/U record is 11-23.

The current betting odds have Cincinnati listed as a 6.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Cincinnati hasn't looked great in their games this season with their 19-15 record overall and their 7-13 conference record which had them right near the bottom of the Big 12. They were good in neutral site games though, going 3-1 in those. Meanwhile, UCF hasn't looked good in their games this season with their 18-16 record overall and their 7-13 conference record which had them right near the bottom of the Big 12. They haven't been great in these neutral site games either as they are 3-3 this season. UCF did finish the season playing better than Cincinnati as Cincinnati is 2-3 in their last 5 games and UCF is 3-2. Both of these teams also won in very different ways in the 1st round too. Cincinnati crushed DePaul by over 20 points in the 1st round while UCF struggled to beat Oregon State in their game, winning that game by 1 point in the end. That game could have easily gone the other way though, and this is a familiar matchup too since these two both played in the Big 12 this season and did meet with each other. Cincinnati won their only meeting this season by double digits on the road, and UCF didn't really do anything in that 1st round to show they can hang in this game. Cincinnati is off a blowout win and has the momentum on their side. The best way to place a bet here is on Cincinnati to cover the spread in this game. 

UCF Cincinnati Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Thursday, April 3, 2025 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Cincinnati 77 UCF 68.

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UCF Knights: 6-11 ATS when the total is 150 to 159.5. 2-7 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite. 3-11 1H ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%). 6-1 OVER as a neutral court underdog or pick. 8-4 OVER revenging a home loss vs opponent.

Cincinnati Bearcats: 4-1 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less or pick. 13-6 ATS when the total is 150 to 159.5. 9-5 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%). 8-4 OVER versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 45% or more. 

UCF Knights:  None.

Cincinnati Bearcats:  None.

"Cincinnati's a really good team, very talented. They've got good size, good length and they play hard. They're a tough team." - Johnny Dawkins Jr on his team’s game against Cincinnati in the Crown Basketball Tournament.

"We're not coaching based on messaging for the future. We're trying to win the tournament. We all agreed we're going to come out here and try to win. When you make decisions as a coach, they may not be the right decisions, but we're trying to make the right decision to win." - Wes Miller on his team’s game against UCF in the Crown Basketball Tournament.

D. Coleman 

K. Hall 

J. Ivy-Curry 

D. Johnson 

M. Thiam

A. Bandaogo 

J. James 

S. Lukosius 

D. Mitchell 

D. Skillings

PPG: K. Hall (18.5)

APG: D. Johnson (4.2)

Reb/G: K. Hall (7.1)

PPG: J. James (12.8)

APG: J. James (3.6)

Reb/G: D. Mitchell (6.7)

Coaches:

UCF Knights: Johnny Dawkins Jr (9th season)

Cincinnati Bearcats: Wes Miller (4th season)