by Chuck Sommers
Wednesday, Oct 13, 2021
Time: Noon ET, October 16, 2021
Venue: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa FL
Where to watch: ESPNU
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Tulsa -8.5
BetMGM: Tulsa -8.5
Caesars: Tulsa -8.5
Season record
Tulsa: 2-4 (1-1 American)
South Florida: 1-4 (0-1 American)
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Tulsa - South Florida preview and analysis
Recent form
Tulsa: won 35-29 vs. Memphis on Oct. 9
South Florida: lost 41-17 at SMU on Oct. 2
After a strong victory last week, albeit against a struggling Memphis Tigers program, the Tulsa Golden Hurricane should keep the good times rolling as they hit the road to face the South Florida Bulls on Saturday in Tampa.
The Golden Hurricane are coming off a six-point win that saw them nearly blow a 15-point lead in the fourth quarter. Tulsa overcame 614 total yards of Memphis offense, but forced three turnovers despite having the ball for seven minutes less than the Tigers.
That's why college football is such a weird anomaly that one can never understand.
Quarterback Davis Brin threw only 21 times, but had 182 yards and two touchdowns on just 11 completions including a 63-yard bomb to Josh Johnson early in the fourth quarter to give Tulsa that two-score lead.
Tulsa has won two of three after starting the season 0-3. It seemed like it was only a matter of time before Tulsa would turn things around. After a five-point loss at Oklahoma State and a strong effort in the loss to Ohio State, Tulsa beat Arkansas State by a touchdown three weeks ago.
Tulsa's offense is capable of carrying them on plenty of nights. The passing attack, led by Brin, is averaging 274.8 yards per game. A solid running attack has the Hurricane averaging almost 445 yards per game. The downside is they haven't scored (24.3 PPG) and their defense is too leaky (32.7 PPG allowed).
But South Florida isn't good at either of those either, which sets up well for Tulsa. The Bulls have started the season with four losses in five games with only two notable appearances: an eight-point loss to BYU, and their lone 21-point victory against Florida A&M.
USF is coming off a 24-point loss to the now-23rd ranked SMU Mustangs two weeks ago. The Bulls couldn't match with SMU's high-octane offense despite trailing by only 10 going into the fourth quarter.
Terry McClain threw for 223 yards on 14 of 22, but didn't throw a touchdown. Jimmy Horn Jr. caught five of those passes for 102 yards while Brian Battie was held to a team-high 46 yards on seven carries.
South Florida is giving up nearly 500 yards on defense, including 218.6 on the ground. For an attack that just had leading back Shamari Brooks run for 126 and two touchdowns against the Memphis defense, that's salivating.
Prediction
This shouldn't be too hard for Tulsa. Coming off a big win at home, going on the road against a team that's fallen off a steep cliff the past few years should not be a tough challenge. Tulsa by 21
Betting trends
Tulsa is 12-1 against the spread in its last 13 road games.
Tulsa is 8-21 ATS since 1992 after being outgained by at least 125 yards in consecutive games.
South Florida is 1-18 straight up in its last 19 games as an underdog.
South Florida is 4-4 in its last eight ATS as a home underdog.
Statistical leaders
Tulsa:
Passing: Davis Brin -- 1,649 yards, 8 TD, 8 INT
Rushing: Shamari Brooks -- 416 yards, 3 TD
Receiving: Josh Johnson -- 508 yards, 2 TD
South Florida:
Passing: Timmy McClain -- 781 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT
Rushing: Jaren Mangham -- 189 yards, 9 TD
Receiving: Xavier Weaver -- 328 yards, 1 TD
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
