by Amedeus Mastrangelo
Tuesday, Nov 23, 2021
Game Time: 4:00 pm ET, Saturday, November 27, 2021
Venue: Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX
Where to Watch: ESPN2
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Tulsa +6.5, SMU -6.5; Over/Under: 62 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Tulsa +6.5, SMU -6.5; Over/Under: 62 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Tulsa +6.5, SMU -6.5; Over/Under: 62 points
Season Record
Tulsa Golden Hurricane: 5-6 (5th place, AAC)
SMU Mustangs: 8-3 (4th place, AAC)
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Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs SMU Mustangs Preview and Analysis
Recent Form
Tulsa Golden Hurricane: won at home on Nov. 20 against the Temple Owls 44-10.
SMU Mustangs: lost on the road on Nov. 20 against the Cincinnati Bearcats 48-14.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane Analysis
Tulsa is coming into this FBS game with a 5-6 record overall and they are 2-3 in their road games this college football season where they will be in this game. This will be their 8th conference matchup this year and they are currently 4-3 in their conference games this season. They are coming into this game on a 2 game winning streak after a win in their last game. Davis Brin played well in that game as he completed 18/30 passes for 297 yards, 2 touchdowns and no interceptions. Shamari Brooks led the team in rushing with 60 yards on 11 carries while Deneric Prince had 58 yards and 1 touchdown on 8 carries. Steven Anderson and Brin both ran in 1 TD each on the ground in that one. Josh Johnson had a nice day as he led the receivers with 159 yards and 1 touchdown on 9 receptions while J.C. Santana had 59 yards and 1 touchdown on 5 receptions. Yohance Burnett led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 6 assisted ones. Treyvon Reeves and Anthony Goodlow both recorded the only sacks in that game with 1 each while TieNeal Martin came up with the only interception for them in that one. They have scored 279 points in their 11 games this season averaging 25.4 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 298 points against them allowing 27.1 PPG. Their offense is averaging 439.5 YPG while their defense is allowing 378.1 YPG.
SMU Mustangs Analysis
SMU is coming into this college football game with an 8-3 record overall and they are 5-0 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. This will be the 8th conference matchup on their schedule this year and they are currently 4-3 in their conference games this season. They have lost 3 of their last 4 games and are coming into this one off of a loss in their last game. Tanner Mordecai did not play well at all in that game as he completed 15/26 passes for 66 yards and 1 touchdown. Ulysses Bentley IV led the team in rushing with 68 yards on 11 carries while Tre Siggers had 64 yards and 1 touchdown on 10 carries. Rashee Rice led the receivers with 21 yards and 1 touchdown on 7 receptions in what was a very quiet day for the receiving corps. Jahari Rogers led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles. No one on the defense recorded a sack or an interception for them in that one. They have scored 430 points in their 11 games this season averaging 39.1 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 307 points against them allowing 27.9 PPG. SMU’s offense is averaging 472.5 YPG while their defense is allowing 418.3 YPG.
Tulsa vs SMU Prediction
Tulsa is coming into this game as a 6.5 point underdog with the current betting odds according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Tulsa has been playing much better in their recent games coming into this one with 2 straight wins and they are just 1 win away from becoming bowl eligible. They have to get this win as it is their last game or else their season is over if they lose. SMU is really only competing for a better bowl game here and there is not as much urgency for them to win this game. They have not been playing well either recently, they have 3 losses all season but those 3 losses came in their last 4 games as their schedule got tougher. Tulsa is playing well right now and they will be motivated to win this game and become bowl eligible. The best bet to place in this game is on Tulsa to cover the spread here.
Tulsa SMU Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, November 27, 2021 (4:00 pm ET start time) is Tulsa 21 SMU 17.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Tulsa Golden Hurricane: 31-21 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63. 96-91 ATS as an underdog. 60-52 ATS as a road underdog. 92-79 ATS in road games. 113-109 ATS against conference opponents.
SMU Mustangs: 20-24 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. 157-187 ATS in all games. 17-28 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63. 52-66 ATS as a favorite. 36-39 ATS as a home favorite. 82-87 ATS in home games. 103-127 ATS against conference opponents.
Key Injuries
Tulsa Golden Hurricane: S. Crawford Jr. (WR) Ques Sat - Undisclosed injury. C. Paul (OL) Ques Sat - Knee injury. K. Ray (S) Out indefinitely - Foot injury.
SMU Mustangs: J. Kerley (WR) Ques Sat - Leg injury. D. Gray (WR) Ques Sat - Leg injury. A. Ali (OL) Late Nov - Knee injury. T. McDaniel (RB) Out indefinitely - Ankle injury.
Notable Quotes
“They’ve really raised the level of our program. We’ve done some good things and we’ve had some up-and-down years in there, and they’ve been involved in the majority of all of those.” - Philip Montgomery on the seniors in his program.
"Well, certainly not our best performance. Got to give Cincinnati a lot of credit. Thought they lined up and whipped and really whipped us pretty good so when that happens, that's on everybody. We've got to do a better job coaching. Got to do a better job of playing, but again, you've got to give them a lot of credit.” - Sonny Dykes on his team’s loss against Cincinnati in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
WR Naylor II, Ezra
WR JuanCarlos Santana
WR Johnson, Josh
TE Hall, Ethan
QB Brin, Davis
RB Brooks, Shamari
SMU Mustangs
WR Roberson Jr., Reggie
WR Rice, Rashee
WR Gray, Danny
TE Calcaterra, Grant
QB Mordecai, Tanner
RB Ulysses Bentley IV
Statistical Leaders
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Passing: D. Brin (2713)
Rushing: S. Brooks (851)
Receiving: J. Johnson (841)
Touchdowns: S. Brooks (6)
SMU Mustangs
Passing: T. Mordecai (3330)
Rushing: T. Siggers (728)
Receiving: D. Gray (803)
Touchdowns: D. Gray (9)
Coaches:
Tulsa Golden Hurricane: Philip Montgomery (7th season)
SMU Mustangs: Sonny Dykes (4th season)
Amedeus Mastrangelo
About the Author:
Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.
