Game Time: 3:00 pm ET, Saturday, October 16, 2021
Venue: Bobcat Stadium, San Marcos, TX
Where to Watch: ESPN+
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Troy -7.5, Texas State +7.5; Over/Under: 49.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Troy -7.5, Texas State +7.5; Over/Under: 49.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Troy -7.5, Texas State +7.5; Over/Under: 49.5 points
Troy Trojans: 3-3 (3rd place, Sun Belt Group A)
Texas State Bobcats: 2-3 (2nd place, Sun Belt Group B)
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Troy Trojans vs Texas State Bobcats Preview and Analysis
Troy Trojans: won at home on Oct. 9 against the Georgia Southern Eagles 27-24.
Texas State Bobcats: won at home on Oct. 9 in overtime against the South Alabama Jaguars 33-31.
Troy Trojans Analysis
Troy is coming into this FBS game with a 3-3 record overall and they are 1-2 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. This will be their 3rd conference matchup of the season and they are currently 1-1 in their conference games this year. Their 1 loss came against the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks while their 1 win came against GA Southern in their last game. They won that game 27-24 but they had a large lead in the 2st half and let them back into the game later on in the 2nd half. Gunnar Watson had a good game as he completed 24/36 passes for 270 yards and 2 touchdowns. Jamontez Woods led the team in rushing yards with 98 and 1 touchdown on 9 carries while Kimani Vidal had 57 rushing yards on 13 carries. Those two made up their entire ground game in that one. Reggie Todd led the receivers with 71 yards and 1 touchdown on 4 receptions but the ball was spread around quite a bit with 10 different players catching a pass for them in that game so no one player stood out for the receiving corps. TJ Harris led the defense with 5 solo tackles, 1 sack and 1 interception while Dell Pettus was right behind with 4 solo tackles and 3 assisted ones. Harris along with Richard Jibunor and Javon Solomon all had 1 sack and 1 interception each in that game. Elgin Griffin and Jayden McDonald both got to the quarterback as well in that one recording 1 sack each. They have scored 146 points in their first 6 games averaging 24.3 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 109 points against them allowing 18.2 PPG. Their offense is averaging 346.3 YPG while their defense is allowing 272 YPG.
Texas State Bobcats Analysis
Texas State is coming into this NCAA football game with a 2-3 record overall and they are 1-2 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. This will be their 2nd conference matchup on their schedule and they are off to a good start so far with a 1-0 record in their conference games this season. Their 1 win came against South Alabama in their last game. They won a very close game in OT 33-31. Brady McBride struggled a lot in that game as he completed 18/28 passes for 187 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Calvin Hill led the team in rushing with 70 yards on 11 carries while Jahmyl Jeter was right behind him with 66 rushing yards and 1 touchdown on 10 carries. McBride also racked up 57 rushing yards on 15 carries himself while Brock Sturges had the other TD on the ground in that one. Javen Banks had a nice day as he led the receivers with 104 yards and 1 touchdown on 4 receptions. Marcell Barbee caught the only other TD through the air in that game but Banks was the biggest threat of all the receiving corps. Sione Tupou led the defense with 5 solo tackles and 9 assisted ones while Troy Lefeged Jr. was right behind him with 4 solo tackles, 1 assisted one and the only interception caught by them in that game. No one else on the defense had an interception while Jordan Revels and Samuel Obiang both combined for 1 sack in the game. They have scored 131 points in their first 5 games averaging 26.2 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 178 points against them allowing 35.6 PPG. The Texas State offense is averaging 346 YPG while their defense is allowing 414.6 YPG.
Troy vs Texas State Prediction
Texas State is coming into this game as a 7.5 point underdog with the current betting odds according to Draftkings sportsbook. They have not been playing well leading up to their last game but they really showed up as they pulled off a big conference win in overtime. They are getting a Troy team that has not been playing any better themselves recently. Troy has lost 2 of their last 3 games and they are coming off of a win but that win was by 3 points at home against a very bad Georgia Southern team. This will be a close game that both teams fight hard for the win and Troy is not really playing that much better than Texas State right now. Texas State has the home advantage here too so the best bet to place in this game is on Texas State to cover the spread.
Troy Texas State Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 16, 2021 (3:00 pm ET start time) is Troy 23 Texas State 20.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Troy Trojans: 118-114 ATS in all games. 26-22 ATS as a road favorite. 72-58 ATS in road games. 66-63 ATS against conference opponents.
Texas State Bobcats: 51-58 O/U in all games. 12-24 O/U when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 36-48 O/U as an underdog. 31-39 O/U against conference opponents.
Troy Trojans: None.
Texas State Bobcats: R. Groves (WR) Out Indefinitely - Undisclosed injury. W. Jones (WR) Out indefinitely - Foot injury.
Players to Watch
Troy Trojans: Jamontez Woods is one player to watch in this contest. He leads his team in touchdowns scored this season. He is coming off of a good game where he scored again and led the team in rushing yards. He will want to keep up his good performance so look for him to get a lot of touches here and find the end zone again.
Texas State Bobcats: Javen Banks is one player to watch here. He leads his team in receiving yards this season. He is coming off of a good game where he led the team in receiving and had over 100 yards in that game. He is a key piece in this offense so look for him to keep getting balls thrown his way as he makes big catches down the field.
"Obviously, really excited to get a win, especially a conference win. Any time you do that you've got to be happy about it. I really like the way our guys just kept fighting. I think it says a lot about our team.” - Chip Lindsey on the way his team performed in their win over GA Southern.
“McBride has a short-term memory, so I knew he was going to be fine. He doesn’t get rattled with this stuff. He understands that he has got to take care of the ball a little better, and he gets frustrated with that, but there was no hesitation because I knew that kid was going to make some plays. He’s the guy everyone wanted to have the game ball in the locker room.” - Jake Spavital on his starting quarterback and his performance in their OT win over South Alabama.
WR Todd, Reggie
WR Luke Whittemore
WR Barber, Jabre
WR Tez Johnson
TE Lewis, Deyunkrea
QB Powell, Taylor
RB Vidal, Kimani
Texas State Bobcats
WR Marcell Barbee
WR Banks, Javen
WR Speights, Chandler
WR Drue Jackson
TE Lanam, Jackson
QB McBride, Brady
RB Hill, Calvin
Passing: T. Powell (1144)
Rushing: K. Vidal (281)
Receiving: T. Johnson (335)
Touchdowns: J. Woods (4)
Sacks: J. Solomon (7.5)
Tackles: C. Martial (18)
Texas State Bobcats
Passing: B. McBride (973)
Rushing: C. Hill (308)
Receiving: J. Banks (252)
Touchdowns: J. Jeter (4)
Sacks: I. Nixon (3)
Tackles: Z. Childress (17)
Troy Trojans: Chip Lindsey (3rd season)
Texas State Bobcats: Jake Spavital (3rd season)
73 degrees F mostly sunny, 43% humidity, 0% chance of rain, up to 15 mph wind speeds N.