Troy Trojans vs Louisiana Monroe Warhawks Prediction, Odds and Preview - 09/25/2021

by Big Al Staff

Game Time: 8:00 pm ET, Saturday, September 25, 2021
Venue:  Malone Stadium, Monroe, LA
Where to Watch:  ESPN+


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Troy -24, ULM +24; Over/Under:  50 points
Bet365:  Point Spread:  Troy -24, ULM +24; Over/Under:  49.5 points
BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Troy -23.5, ULM +23.5; Over/Under:  49.5 points

Season Record

Troy Trojans:  2-1 (3rd place, Sun Belt Group A)
Louisiana Monroe Warhawks:  1-1 (3rd place, Sun Belt Group B)
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Troy Trojans vs Louisiana Monroe Warhawks Preview and Analysis

Recent Form
Troy Trojans:  won on the road on Sep. 18 against the Southern Miss Golden Eagles 21-9.
Louisiana Monroe Warhawks:  won at home on Sep. 18 against the Jackson State Tigers 12-7.

Troy Trojans Analysis

Troy is coming into this game with a 2-1 record overall and they are also 1-0 in their road games this season where they will be playing this game. This will be their first conference game of the season as well. Their 1 loss this year came against the Liberty Flames while their 2 wins came against the Southern Jaguars in their season opener and the Southern Miss Golden Eagles in their last game. Taylor Powell played a solid game in their last as he completed 27/39 passes for 255 yards and 2 touchdowns. They did not really get a good run game going as Kimani Vidal led the team in rushing with 45 yards and 1 touchdown on 17 carries. Tez Johnson had a nice day as he led the team in receiving with 106 yards on 10 receptions. Javon Solomon led the defense with 5 solo tackles and 4 assisted ones along with 3.5 sacks in that game alone. Richard Jibunor had 4 solo tackles, 3 assisted ones, 2.5 sacks and 1 interception in the game as he went off for this defense. Even Carlton Martial had 4 solo tackles, 4 assisted ones, 1 sack and 1 interception in what was a great defensive showing for Troy. They have scored 89 points in their first 3 games and they have allowed their opponents to score 33 points against them. Troy’s offense is averaging 333.3 YPG while the Troy defense is allowing 228 YPG.

Louisiana Monroe Warhawks Analysis

The UL Monroe Warhawks are coming into this game with a 1-1 record overall and they are 1-0 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. This will be their first conference game of the year. They lost in their season opener against the Kentucky Wildcats but they followed that up with a win in their last game against the Jackson State Tigers. They did not play well in that win though as they were going up against a team from the FCS and were only able to come away with a 12-7 win. Rhett Rodriguez played alright as he completed 16/29 passes for 150 yards. They did not get a good run game going as Andrew Henry led his team in rushing with 52 yards on 9 carries. The receiving corps were also quiet as Jeremiah Knight led the team with 78 yards on 6 receptions. The offense did not even score a touchdown in that game as they relied on their kicker to make 4 field goals for them and win in such a pathetic way. Adam Sparks led the defense with 4 solo tackles and 1 assisted one in that game. Ty Shelby led the team in sacks with 2 and Quae Drake also recorded 1 as well. It was Zack Woodard who came away with the 1 interception for his team though. They have scored 22 points in their first 2 games and they have allowed their opponents to score 52 points against them. Their offense is averaging 169 YPG while their defense is allowing 424.5 YPG.


Troy vs Louisiana Monroe Prediction

ULM has a very bad offense this year. Not only have they not been able to score many points or move the ball down the field for a lot of yards, but they cut it real close with a team from the FCS. They should not be winning those games 12-7 but that is all their offense is able to do against a low tier defense. Troy has a very good defense and ULM is going to struggle a lot to move the ball on them let alone actually score. ULM is giving up way too much yardage and Troy has been moving the ball well this season. Troy is going to pull away in this game with their offense making it out of reach for ULM but they will also make it very difficult for ULM to even score in this game. Troy is going to cover the spread in this game in what will likely be a game that stays under the total as well due to that stout defense so that is the best bet to make.
Troy Louisiana Monroe Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, September 25, 2021 (8:00 pm ET start time) is Troy 38 ULM 7.
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NCAAF Betting Trends

Troy Trojans: 29-24 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 72-56 ATS in road games.
Louisiana Monroe Warhawks: 7-17 ATS in all games. 17-34 ATS after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers.

Key Injuries

Troy Trojans:  None.
Louisiana Monroe Warhawks:  None.

Players to Watch

Troy Trojans: Kimani Vidal is one player to watch in this game. He ;leads his team in rushing yards and has a team-high for touchdowns scored this season. He will be a big part of this offense so look for him to get involved in some scoring plays and help his team pull away in this game.
Louisiana Monroe Warhawks: Rhett Rodriguez is one player to watch here. He leads his team in passing and will have to lead his offense in this game if they want a chance at winning. He is one of the quarterbacks on the team so it is up to him to guide this offense in the right direction and put up some points here.

Notable Quotes

“It was a big win for us on the road. Really proud with how our guys battled. Handling the road trip for the first time against a quality opponent on the road was a big challenge for us. I liked the way we approached it. We had a good week of practice and it carried it over into Saturday.” - Chip Lindsey after a road win against Southern Miss.
"We won because of our kicking game. Not just the field goals that we made, but the punts were so good and so long. That great punt return man had to fair catch almost everything tonight." - Terry Bowden on the importance of his special teams unit in the win over Jackson State.

Starting Lineups

Troy Trojans
WR Todd, Reggie 
WR Whittemore, Luke 
WR Barber, Jabre 
WR Johnson, Tez 
TE Lewis, Deyunkrea 
QB Powell, Taylor 
RB Vidal, Kimani 
Louisiana Monroe Warhawks
WR Sparks, Jared 
WR Frett, Jevin 
WR Knight, Boogie 
WR Derrick, Will 
TE Rasmussen, Zach 
QB Rodriguez, Rhett 
RB Roach, Kadyn 
RB       Norman, Charlie 

Statistical Leaders

Troy Trojans
Passing: T. Powell (697)
Rushing: K. Vidal (164)
Receiving: T. Johnson (223)
Touchdowns: K. Vidal (2)
Sacks: J. Solomon (3.5)
Tackles: J. Solomon (8)
Louisiana Monroe Warhawks
Passing: R. Rodriguez (206)
Rushing: A. Henry (61)
Receiving: B. Knight (136)
Touchdowns: K. Roach (1)
Sacks: T. Shelby (4)
Tackles: A. Sparks (9)
Troy Trojans: Chip Lindsey (3rd season)
Louisiana Monroe Warhawks: Terry Bowden (1st season)

Weather Forecast

77 degrees F sunny, 53% humidity, 0% chance of rain, up to 2 mph wind speeds NW.

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