by Rod Pearson
Wednesday, Dec 20, 2023
Game Time: 12:00 pm ET, Saturday, December 23, 2023
Venue: Protective Stadium, Birmingham, AL
Where to Watch: ABC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Troy -7.5, Duke +7.5; Over/Under: 44.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Troy -7.5, Duke +7.5; Over/Under: 44.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Troy -7.5, Duke +7.5; Over/Under: 44.5 points
Season Record
Troy Trojans: 11-2 (8-1) (1st place, SBC West)
Duke Blue Devils: 7-5 (4-4) (8th place, ACC)
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Recent Form
Troy Trojans: won their last game at home against the Appalachian State Mountaineers 49-23.
Duke Blue Devils: won their last game at home against the Pittsburgh Panthers 30-19.
Troy Trojans vs Duke Blue Devils Preview and Analysis
Troy is entering this game with an 11-2 record overall and they have an 8-1 record in their conference games too. They are 6-1 in their home games, 5-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at a neutral site for this game. They won their last game against App State 49-23. Gunnar Watson was the starting QB and he completed 16/24 passes for 192 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Kimani Vidal led the team in rushing yards with 233 and 5 TDs. Chris Lewis led the receivers with 98 receiving yards on 3 receptions and 1 TD. Dell Pettus led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 6 assisted tackles while Javon Solomon led the defense in sacks with 2. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.
Duke is entering this game with a 7-5 record overall and they have a 4-4 record in their conference games too. They are 6-1 in their home games, 1-4 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at a neutral site for this game. They won their last game against Pittsburgh 30-19. Grayson Loftis was the starting QB and he completed 20/37 passes for 248 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Jordan Waters led the team in rushing yards with 31. Jordan Moore led the receivers with 106 receiving yards on 8 receptions and 1 TD. Nick Morris Jr. led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 7 assisted tackles while RJ Oben led the defense in sacks with 1.5. Jeremiah Lewis came away with the only interception for them in that game.
Troy vs Duke Prediction
The current betting odds have Troy listed as a 7.5 point favorite in this 76 Birmingham Bowl game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Both of these teams are in similar situations entering this game with both teams being under interim head coaches as each of their respective coaches have moved on to new jobs. Troy looked great in their games all season with their 11-2 record overall and even went on to win the Sun Belt Conference Championship. Meanwhile, Duke also looked good in their games this season with their 7-5 record overall but they also had a much stronger start to their season than the way they finished it. They started off very strong and were one of the best teams in the ACC for a while but then they started to lose more games as their schedule got tougher and they also ended up losing their starting QB near the end of the season. Their backup QB wasn't great down the stretch either and now they have no head coach to finish the season with while Troy is in a similar situation but Troy still won their Conference Championship and have hopes of being ranked by the end of the season so they will be looking to cap off their year with a bowl win here, especially since this bowl game is being played close to home too. The best way to place a bet here is on Troy to cover the spread in this game.
Troy Duke Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, December 23, 2023 (12:00 pm ET start time) is Troy 34 Duke 20.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Troy Trojans: 7-19 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival. 9-17 ATS after 3 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers. 7-1 OVER in a bowl game. 12-7 OVER after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers.
Duke Blue Devils: 8-4 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. 8-2 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival. 14-7 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread. 9-2 OVER in a bowl game. 8-1 OVER in games played on a neutral field.
Key Injuries
Troy Trojans: J. Ingram (RB) Out indefinitely - Knee. R. Bracy (S) Out indefinitely - Suspension.
Duke Blue Devils: H. Belin IV (QB) Out indefinitely - Upper Body. R. Leonard (QB) Out indefinitely - Toe. E. Pancol (WR) Out indefinitely - Lower Body.
Notable Quotes
"Extremely proud of our team. These guys — it's all about them. Grateful. Just thank God for everything they've done. They have changed me and helped make me better. I'm just glad they let us coach them. I could not be more proud of their accomplishments. They've had a heck of a year, and I am just extremely grateful for what they've done." - Jon Sumrall after his team’s win against App State in the Sun Belt Conference Championship.
"Special thanks to Mark Meadows and the 76® Birmingham Bowl for this opportunity -- we are excited to travel to Birmingham and play an excellent Sun Belt champion Troy team. I am very familiar with the City of Birmingham so I know our players and fans will have a great experience." - Trooper Taylor on his team playing in the Birmingham Bowl.
Starting Lineups
Troy Trojans
WR Lewis, Chris
WR Barber, Jabre
WR Stoudemire, Deshon
TE Ollendieck, Clayton
QB Watson, Gunnar
RB Vidal, Kimani
Duke Blue Devils
WR Hagans, Sahmir
WR Moore, Jordan
WR Calhoun, Jalon
TE Dalmolin, Nicky
QB Loftis, Grayson
RB Coleman, Jaylen
Statistical Leaders
Troy Trojans
Passing: G. Watson (3328)
Rushing: K. Vidal (1583)
Receiving: J. Barber (887)
Touchdowns: K. Vidal (15)
Duke Blue Devils
Passing: R. Leonard (1102)
Rushing: J. Waters (753)
Receiving: J. Moore (794)
Touchdowns: J. Moore (14)
Coaches:
Troy Trojans: Greg Gasparato (Interim)
Duke Blue Devils: Trooper Taylor (Interim)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
