by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Nov 12, 2024
Game Time: 7:30 pm ET, Wednesday, November 13, 2024
Venue: Capital One Arena, Washington, DC
Where to Watch: ESPN+
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline: Leafs +100, Capitals -120; Over/Under: 6.5 goals
Bet365: Moneyline: Leafs +100, Capitals -120; Over/Under: 6.5 goals
BetMGM: Moneyline: Leafs +100, Capitals -120; Over/Under: 6 goals
Season Record
Toronto Maple Leafs: 9-5-2 (2nd place, Atlantic Division)
Washington Capitals: 10-4-0 (3rd place, Metropolitan Division)
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Recent Form
Toronto Maple Leafs: 5-3-2 last 10
Washington Capitals: 7-3-0 last 10
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Washington Capitals Preview and Analysis
The Maple Leafs are entering this game with 20 points, a 9-5-2 record overall, and they are 2-3-2 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Montreal Canadiens in their last game, winning that one at home 4-1, but this is also the 2nd game of a back-to-back for them with their game against the Ottawa Senators still to be played on Tuesday night. In their game against the Canadiens, Mitchell Marner, William Nylander, John Tavares, and Conor Timmins each scored 1 goal for them in that one. Mitchell Marner, William Nylander, Simon Benoit, David Kämpf, Matthew Knies, Ryan Reaves, and Morgan Rielly each led the team in assists with 1 while William Nylander led the team in shots on net in that game with 7. Joseph Woll was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 1 goal on 21 shots with 20 saves and a .952 save percentage. Their offense has scored 50 goals this season averaging 3.1 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 41 goals against them allowing 2.6 goals per game.
The Capitals are entering this game with 20 points, a 10-4-0 record overall, and they are 7-2-0 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the St Louis Blues in their last game, winning that one on the road 8-1. Alexander Ovechkin and Connor McMichael each led the team in goals scored with 2 while Jakob Chychrun, Michael Sgarbossa, Brandon Duhaime, and Rasmus Sandin each scored 1 goal for them in that one. Dylan Strome led the team in assists with 3 while Alexander Ovechkin led the team in shots on net in that game with 5. Logan Thompson was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 1 goal on 25 shots with 24 saves and a .960 sv percentage. Their offense has scored 59 goals this season averaging 4.2 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 40 goals against them allowing 2.9 goals per game.
Maple Leafs vs Capitals Prediction
The current betting odds have the Capitals listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Capitals have looked really good in their games this season with their 10-4-0 record overall which has them in 3rd place of their division in the East. They have looked great all season with Ovechkin chasing Wayne Gretzky for most goals in NHL history, really energizing this entire team. They have looked great on home ice this year with their 7-2-0 home record and they are coming off a big 8-1 win in their last one so they will have some momentum from that win. Meanwhile, the Leafs have looked good in their games this season with their 9-5-2 record overall which has them in 2nd place of their division in the East at the moment. They have also looked good lately and are coming off a win in their last one, but this isn't a great situation for the team. They are already missing their best player on the ice and now they are going to be playing this game on a back-to-back with a game against the Senators before this. The Senators will bring their best effort for the Leafs with that being a rivalry game so the Leafs aren't going to have the energy for this game with the travel included. They have also looked a lot worse in their road games this season with their 2-3-2 road record. The best way to place a bet here is on the Capitals to win this game.
Maple Leafs Capitals Prediction: Our NHL Pick for Wednesday, November 13, 2024 (7:30 pm ET start time) is Capitals 4 Leafs 2.
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NHL Betting Trends
Toronto Maple Leafs: 18-18 (+4 units) on the moneyline as an underdog. 15-13 (+5.5 units) on the moneyline as a road underdog of +100 to +200. 55-41 (+6.9 units) on the moneyline when playing against a team with a winning record. 17-10 OVER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%). 13-6 OVER against poor power play teams - scoring on over 14.5% of their chances.
Washington Capitals: 85-97 (-10.4 units) on the moneyline in all games. 47-46 (-4.5 units) on the moneyline in home games. 5-11 (-7.1 units) on the moneyline off a road blowout win by 3 goals or more. 7-4 OVER after a blowout win by 4 goals or more. 26-19 OVER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%).
Key Injuries
Toronto Maple Leafs: M. Pacioretty (LW) Out - Lower-body. A. Matthews (C) Day To Day - Upper-body D. Mermis (D) Out - Upper Body. C. Jarnkrok (C) Out - Lower-body.
Washington Capitals: S. Milano (LW) Out - Upper-body. N. Backstrom (C) Out For Season - Hip. T. Oshie (RW) Out For Season - Back.
Notable Quotes
“It’s not getting where it needs to get to… We’re trying to manage it and make sure that when he comes back, he is 100%.” - Craig Berube on the injury to Auston Matthews.
"You can't control those things, just try to help the team win and help get him there and do what you can to get him to that position where hopefully has a chance to break the record. Hockey's a pretty random game, and could be anyone that gets an assist on that goal or the tying goal or the goal after or 900 — there's lots of important ones. Whatever it may be, try to do my best to help him get there and help the team win games at the same time. So far, it's been going well." - Dylan Strome on Alex Ovechkin.
Starting Lineups
Toronto Maple Leafs
LW Matthew Knies
C Max Domi
RW Mitchell Marner
LD Morgan Rielly
RD Oliver Ekman-Larsson
G Anthony Stolarz
Washington Capitals
LW Aliaksei Protas
C Dylan Strome
RW Alex Ovechkin
LD Jakob Chychrun
RD John Carlson
G Charlie Lindgren
Statistical Leaders
Toronto Maple Leafs
Points: M. Marner (20)
Goals: W. Nylander (11)
Assists: M. Marner (16)
GAA: A. Stolarz (2.00)
Washington Capitals
Points: D. Strome (22)
Goals: A. Ovechkin (10)
Assists: D. Strome (18)
GAA: L. Thompson (2.55)
Coaches:
Toronto Maple Leafs: Craig Berube (1st season)
Washington Capitals: Spencer Carbery (2nd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
