Toronto Maple Leafs vs Vegas Golden Knights Prediction, Preview and Odds - 03/05/2025

Game Time: 10:00 pm ET, Wednesday, March 5, 2025

Venue:  T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV

Where to Watch:  TNT, MAX, truTV

DraftKings:  Moneyline:  Leafs +105, Knights -125; Over/Under:  6.5 goals

Bet365:  Moneyline:  Leafs +105, Knights -125; Over/Under:  6.5 goals

BetMGM:  Moneyline:  Leafs +105, Knights -125; Over/Under:  6.5 goals

Toronto Maple Leafs:  38-20-3 (1st place, Atlantic Division)

Vegas Golden Knights:  36-18-6 (1st place, Pacific Division)

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Toronto Maple Leafs:  8-1-1 last 10

Vegas Golden Knights:  5-3-2 last 10

The Maple Leafs are entering this game with 79 points, a 38-20-3 record overall, and they are 18-9-2 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the San Jose Sharks in their last game, losing that one at home 3-2 in a shootout. John Tavares and Matthew Knies each scored 1 goal for them in that one. John Tavares, Mitchell Marner, Auston Matthews, and William Nylander each led the team in assists with 1 while Auston Matthews and William Nylander each led the team in shots on net in that game with 6. Anthony Stolarz was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 2 goals on 21 shots with 19 saves and a .905 save percentage. Their offense has scored 196 goals this season averaging 3.2 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 175 goals against them allowing 2.9 goals per game.

The Golden Knights are entering this game with 78 points, a 36-18-6 record overall, and they are 22-6-3 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the New Jersey Devils in their last game, winning that one at home 2-0. Noah Hanifin and Mark Stone each scored 1 goal for them in that one. Jack Eichel led the team in assists with 2 while Noah Hanifin led the team in shots on net in that game with 6. Adin Hill was the starting goalie in that game and he recorded the shutout as he allowed 0 goals on 25 shots with 25 saves and a 1.000 sv percentage. Their offense has scored 199 goals this season averaging 3.3 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 166 goals against them allowing 2.8 goals per game.

The current betting odds have the Golden Knights listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Golden Knights have looked really good in their games this season with their 36-18-6 record overall which has them right at the top of their division in the West. They have also looked great on home ice this year with their 22-6-3 home record. Meanwhile, the Maple Leafs have looked really good in their games this season with their 38-20-3 record overall which has them right at the top of their division in the East. They have been a good road team too with their 18-9-2 road record this season. They have been really hot lately as they are 8-1-1 in their last 10 games, but they are coming off a terrible loss to the Sharks in their last one and could be cooling off after their win streak. They lost at home to the worst team in the NHL and they blew a 2-0 lead in that game too. The Golden Knights haven't been as hot lately as they are only 5-3-2 in their last 10 games, but they have some momentum with 2 wins in a row now and they are coming off a nice 2-0 win over the Devils in their last one. The Golden Knights also have one of the best home records in the NHL this season and they have the talent to take advantage of the Maple Leafs starting to cool off now. The best way to place a bet here is on the Golden Knights to win this game. 

Maple Leafs Golden Knights Prediction:  Our NHL Pick for Wednesday, March 5, 2025 (10:00 pm ET start time) is Knights 3 Leafs 2.

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Toronto Maple Leafs: 141-100 (-16.7 units) on the moneyline in all games. 69-51 (-11.5 units) on the moneyline after playing a home game. 82-70 (-10.2 units) on the moneyline against good passing teams - averaging 5 or more assists per game. 22-14 OVER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%). 

Vegas Golden Knights: 151-102 (+18.1 units) on the moneyline in all games. 68-35 (+26.7 units) on the moneyline revenging a loss versus opponent as a favorite. 35-17 (+21.8 units) on the moneyline when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%). 32-24 OVER revenging a road loss versus opponent.

Toronto Maple Leafs:  S. Lorentz (C) Day To Day - Undisclosed. C. Tanev (D) Out - Upper-body. M. Pacioretty (LW) Out - Undisclosed. J. Hakanpaa (D) Out - Knee.

Vegas Golden Knights:  S. Theodore (D) Out - Arm. W. Karlsson (C) Out - Lower Body. C. Schwindt (RW) Out - Lower Body. L. Cormier (D) Out - Undisclosed.

“Well, it’s disappointing. Any loss is disappointing. Two-nothing lead. We’re in a good spot to close it out, and we didn’t do the job. And then we got a chance in OT with (a full two minutes of 4-on-3) power play and couldn’t get one.” - Craig Berube after his team’s loss against the Sharks in their game on Monday.

“I thought, defensively, we were really dialed in.” - Bruce Cassidy after his team’s win against the Devils in their game on Sunday.

LW Matthew Knies

C Auston Matthews

RW Mitchell Marner

LD Morgan Rielly

RD Oliver Ekman-Larsson

G Anthony Stolarz

LW Tanner Pearson

C Jack Eichel

RW Mark Stone

LD Nicolas Hague

RD Alex Pietrangelo

G Adin Hill

Points: M. Marner (76)

Goals: W. Nylander (35)

Assists: M. Marner (58)

GAA: A. Stolarz (2.20)

Points: J. Eichel (72)

Goals: P. Dorofeyev (24)

Assists: J. Eichel (53)

GAA: A. Hill (2.52)

Coaches:

Toronto Maple Leafs: Craig Berube (1st season)

Vegas Golden Knights: Bruce Cassidy (3rd season)