by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, May 12, 2022
Eastern Conference First Round, Game 6 -- Maple Leafs lead 3-2
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL
Where to watch: TBS, Bally Sports Sun, CBC, TVAS, Sportsnet
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Maple Leafs -130, Lightning +105
BetMGM: Maple Leafs -125, Lightning +105
Caesars: Maple Leafs -130, Lightning +110
Ben Burns has reeled off a strong 24-13-0 run over the last month in the NHL. The last week of the NHL season is here before we get cracking to playoff coverage. The postseason is here, the matchups are set, and you can count on our coverage for all the playoff matchups. Who's going to win the Cup? You need to be tuned in here to find out all the expert analysis. Catch Ben's plays available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers.
Lightning - Maple Leafs preview and analysis
You have to go back a long ways to find the last time the Toronto Maple Leafs won a game that they absolutely needed to have. Not that they were trailing in the series, but you knew they had to win a crucial Game 5, against the two-time Stanley Cup champions, to give themselves a shot to finally move past the first round.
That’s exactly what they did in Game 5, winning 4-3 and fighting off the Tampa Bay Lightning’s attempted comeback in the third period. Somehow, someway, the Maple Leafs are one win away from their biggest series victory since they last won the Stanley Cup. That might not be as much a stretch as we anticipated.
The Leafs. The Maple Leafs of Toronto. One win away from the second round and ensuring the hockey world of a new Stanley Cup champion this season. What a time.
Auston Matthews, as Auston Matthews tends to do, scored the game-winning goal on a rebound with just over six minutes remaining, scoring arguably the biggest goal of his life to date.
"That felt good," Matthews said. "Just the crowd, the energy, there's nothing like a playoff atmosphere especially here in Toronto. It was pretty special. It was a big win for us but there's still some work to be done. It's a good night just to battle back down two goals, never losing hope and just competing but like I said, the job is not done."
That work that needs to be done is going back to Tampa Bay, a place where they’ve won before, but have to do it again in a close-out situation. That means Jack Campbell has to play the game of his life, and the Maple Leafs will need to play their most complete game in 20 years to make it happen.
But they can make it happen if they continue to take advantage of the Swiss-cheese-like defense of the Lightning and the questionable goaltending of Andrei Vasilevskiy. The latter is fully capable of turning this series quickly on a dime. If he gets hot, Toronto is still in danger of losing everything.
"We're here to win the series," Tampa Bay coach Jon Cooper said. "We lost a game tonight; we let this one slip away, that's on us. But we haven't let the series slip away; we let a game slip away so that's how you look at it. Play it game by game."
Tampa isn’t used to getting involved in track meets with the opposing team, but it might have to do that in order to win this series. Clearly, sitting home and trying to stop Matthews and Mitch Marner will not work as much as they thought. Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov will have to make things happen.
But when it happens, they can’t go up 2-0 and sit back. We’re talking a 5-0, 6-0 result that needs to happen, unlike Game 5.
"We knew that they were going to push and you have to give them credit," Stamkos said. "It was a tremendous start for us, the start we wanted. It's usually one of those bad omens when you get an extended 5-on-3 and you don't score, I always say that's kind of a rule. It wasn't for lack of looks, we had some unbelievable looks and that could kind of ice the game early, go up 3-0 so I was disappointed that we didn't execute. We just sat back too much and got away from our game plan."
Prediction
It wouldn’t be a Toronto playoff series if they didn’t go back home in a Game 7, and I think that’s happening here. You are not discounting the champs until they’re fully out of it. Play against Tampa at your own risk. Lightning win 5-3
Betting trends
Lightning are 83-44 against division opponents the past three seasons.
Lightning are 29-20 off an over this season.
Lightning are 10-2 off a win by four goals or more this season.
Maple Leafs are 21-10 after a division game this season.
Maple Leafs are 17-4 this season after playing two straight road games.
Projected lines
Maple Leafs:
Michael Bunting -- Auston Matthews -- Mitchell Marner
Ilya Mikheyev -- John Tavares -- Alexander Kerfoot
William Nylander -- David Kampf -- Pierre Engvall
Nicholas Abruzzese -- Colin Blackwell -- Jason Spezza
Morgan Rielly -- Ilya Lyubushkin
Mark Giordano -- Timothy Liljegren
Jake Muzzin -- TJ Brodie
Jack Campbell
Lightning:
Ondrej Palat -- Steven Stamkos -- Nikita Kucherov
Alex Killorn -- Anthony Cirelli -- Brandon Hagel
Nicholas Paul -- Brayden Point -- Ross Colton
Pat Maroon -- Pierre-Edouard Bellemare -- Corey Perry
Victor Hedman -- Erik Cernak
Ryan McDonagh -- Cal Foote
Mikhail Sergachev -- Zach Bogosian
Andrei Vasilevskiy
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
