by Chuck Sommers
Monday, Apr 04, 2022
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL
Where to watch: Bally Sports Sun, Sportsnet, TVAS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Lightning -135, Maple Leafs +115
BetMGM: Lightning -135, Maple Leafs +110
Caesars: Lightning -130, Maple Leafs +110
Season record
Maple Leafs: 44-19-5
Lightning: 43-18-7
Ben Burns has reeled off a strong 29-14-0 run over the last month in the NHL. After an action-packed month of March, April is bound to be just as crazy with the playoff push underway. Do you have the right picks to lead you to glory and get you ready for what should be an exciting push to the end? Catch Ben's plays available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers.
Maple Leafs - Lightning preview and analysis
We’ve got a potential playoff preview on Monday in Tampa, and I’m not talking about just a future situation. There’s a legitimate chance that this game between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning might be playing in the first round.
Talk about a perfect storm. If the season were to end today, the Maple Leafs would have to host a seven-game series against the Lightning. Toronto hasn’t advanced to the second round in hundreds of years, facing the two-time defending Stanley Cup champions. If you’re looking for one way to crack the multiverse of the hockey world, this would be it.
Toronto is coming in on a four-game winning streak after dismantling the Philadelphia Flyers 6-3 on Saturday, highlighted by Auston Matthews scoring his league-leading 51st goal and continuing to set the world ablaze with his scoring knack. Morgan Rielly also chipped in with a three-point night.
“Not a very good hockey game by us,” Toronto coach Sheldon Keefe said. “Maybe we showed up for an easy game and they didn’t give it to us. So we looked bad for a while.”
They may have looked bad for a while, but I think we all know that this sort of thing is not what the eyes of the world are on right now. It’s all about what the Maple Leafs do in the playoffs and actually getting out of the first round. Funny thing is, you look if the season ended today, this would be a situation where they’d get a seven-game series against Tampa.
We’re not actually talking about the chance of the Lightning losing in the first round, that’s even crazy, but to the Maple Leafs in general? There’s no way, right? Alas with the Lightning, they’re trying to keep things afloat and not falter in the Atlantic Division standings.
It didn’t help the Lightning lost 5-4 in a shootout to the Montreal Canadiens in Martin St. Louis’ first game as a coach against the team he won the Stanley Cup with in 2004. Nikita Kucherov had a goal and two assists, but Tampa lost after having a 2-0 lead in the first period.
“Giving up chances, too many,” Lightning center Brayden Point said. “Too many odd-man (rushes). Just missed assignments. I don’t feel it was fatigue or what, but just sloppy tonight.”
Prediction
Just because of the fact that the Maple Leafs tend to not put things together and fold at the right time. And because I just don't care for the Leafs and find it hilarious every time they falter. So, Tampa gets the win at home and puts the fear in the hearts of Leafs fans again. Lightning win 4-3
Betting trends
The Maple Leafs are 19-7 this season when playing their fourth game in seven days.
The Maple Leafs are 10-0 this season off a road win by three goals or more.
The Maple Leafs are 16-3 off a win by three goals or more overall this year.
The Lightning are 11-2 this season when playing their third game in four days.
The Lightning are 11-15 after three or more overs in the past three seasons.
Projected lines
Maple Leafs:
Michael Bunting -- Auston Matthews -- Mitchell Marner
Ilya Mikheyev -- John Tavares -- Alexander Kerfoot
William Nylander -- David Kampf -- Pierre Engvall
Nicholas Abruzzese -- Colin Blackwell -- Wayne Simmonds
Morgan Rielly -- Ilya Lyubushkin
TJ Brodie -- Justin Holl
Mark Giordano -- Timothy Liljegren
Jack Campbell
Michael Bunting -- Auston Matthews -- Mitchell Marner
Ilya Mikheyev -- John Tavares -- Alexander Kerfoot
William Nylander -- David Kampf -- Pierre Engvall
Nicholas Abruzzese -- Colin Blackwell -- Wayne Simmonds
Morgan Rielly -- Ilya Lyubushkin
TJ Brodie -- Justin Holl
Mark Giordano -- Timothy Liljegren
Jack Campbell
Lightning:
Steven Stamkos -- Brayden Point -- Nikita Kucherov
Ondrej Palat -- Anthony Cirelli -- Alex Killorn
Brandon Hagel -- Ross Colton -- Nicholas Paul
Pat Maroon -- Pierre-Edouard Bellemare -- Corey Perry
Victor Hedman -- Jan Rutta
Mikhail Sergachev -- Erik Cernak
Cal Foote -- Zach Bogosian
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Steven Stamkos -- Brayden Point -- Nikita Kucherov
Ondrej Palat -- Anthony Cirelli -- Alex Killorn
Brandon Hagel -- Ross Colton -- Nicholas Paul
Pat Maroon -- Pierre-Edouard Bellemare -- Corey Perry
Victor Hedman -- Jan Rutta
Mikhail Sergachev -- Erik Cernak
Cal Foote -- Zach Bogosian
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Statistical leaders
Maple Leafs:
Points: Auston Matthews -- 88
Goals: Auston Matthews -- 51
Assists: Mitchell Marner -- 53
Goalie: Jack Campbell -- 25-9-4, 2.66 GAA, .914 SV%
Lightning:
Points: Steven Stamkos -- 76
Goals: Steven Stamkos -- 32
Assists: Victor Hedman -- 47
Goalie: Andrei Vasilevskiy -- 35-14-4, 2.37 GAA, .919 SV%
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
