Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, Preview and Odds - 04/29/2023

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Saturday, April 29, 2023

Venue:  Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL

Where to Watch:  TBS

DraftKings:  Moneyline:  Maple Leafs -110, Lightning -110; Over/Under:  6.5 goals

Bet365:  Moneyline:  Maple Leafs -115, Lightning -105; Over/Under:  6.5 goals

BetMGM:  Moneyline:  Maple Leafs -110, Lightning -110; Over/Under:  6.5 goals

Toronto Maple Leafs:  50-21-11 (2nd place, Atlantic Division)

Tampa Bay Lightning:  46-30-6 (3rd place, Atlantic Division)

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Toronto Maple Leafs:  7-2-1 last 10

Tampa Bay Lightning:  3-5-2 last 10

The Maple Leafs are entering this game finishing the regular season with 111 points, a 50-21-11 record overall, and they were 23-13-5 in their road games this regular season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off of a loss against the Tampa Bay Lightning in their last game, losing that one at home 4-2. Auston Matthews and Morgan Rielly each scored 1 goal in that game. John Tavares led the team in assists with 2 while John Tavares led the team in shots on net in that game with 5. Ilya Samsonov was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 3 goals on 37 shots with 34 saves and a .919 sv percentage. Their offense has scored 279 goals this season averaging 3.4 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 222 goals against them allowing 2.7 goals per game.

The Lightning are entering this game finishing the regular season with 98 points, a 46-30-6 record overall, and they were 28-8-5 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off of a win against the Toronto Maple Leafs in their last game, winning that one on the road 4-2. Mikey Eyssimont, Anthony Cirelli, Alex Killorn, and Nick Paul each scored 1 goal in that game. Brandon Hagel, Ross Colton, Anthony Cirelli, Mikey Eyssimont, Zach Bogosian, Ian Cole, Victor Hedman, and Nick Perbix each led the team in assists with 1 while Brandon Hagel, Nikita Kucherov, and Steven Stamkos each led the team in shots on net in that game with 5. Andrei Vasilevskiy was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 2 goals on 30 shots with 28 saves and a .933 sv percentage. Their offense has scored 283 goals this season averaging 3.5 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 254 goals against them allowing 3.1 goals per game.

The current betting odds have the Lightning listed as a pick 'em in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 6 of a 7-game series between the Lightning and the Maple Leafs for the 1st round of the NHL Eastern Conference playoffs. The Leafs are entering this game with a 3-2 series lead after wasting their chance to end the series on home ice in the last game. The Leafs had a 3-1 series lead but now they go back to Tampa up 3-2 and the pressure is starting to build for this inexperienced team going against the team who has made it to the finals the last 3 straight years, winning the Stanley Cup in 2 of those years too. The Lightning have a chance to even up this series on home ice now and put a ton of pressure on the Leafs going back home for game 7 after blowing a 2 game series lead. The Lightning know if they win this game they have the Leafs right where they want them and they have tons of playoff experience behind them to dig in deep here and even this series up. The Lightning were also a really good home team all year and they have already lost both home games of this series so they are not going to let the Leafs walk into their building and win again in an elimination game. The best way to place a bet here is on the Lightning to win this game and even up the series 3-3.

Maple Leafs Lightning Prediction:  Our NHL Pick for Saturday, April 29, 2023 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Lightning 5 Maple Leafs 2.

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Toronto Maple Leafs: 12-2 (+9.3 units) on the moneyline off a home loss. 25-7 (+14.5 units) on the moneyline after a game where they failed to cover the spread. 9-3 OVER as a # 2 seed in the playoffs. 22-15 OVER after allowing 3 goals or more 3 straight games.

Tampa Bay Lightning: 14-17 (-10.7 units) on the moneyline vs. division opponents. 20-23 (-11.2 units) on the moneyline after playing a road game. 26-13 OVER in a home game where the total is 6 or more. 27-12 OVER after playing a road game.

Toronto Maple Leafs:  E. Gustafsson (D) Ques Sat - Upper Body. M. Giordano (D) day-to-day - Undisclosed. V. Mete (D) Early May - Lower Body. M. Murray (G) Out indefinitely - Head. B. McMann (C) Out indefinitely - Knee. J. Muzzin (D) out for season - Neck. N. Robertson (LW) out for season - Shoulder.

Tampa Bay Lightning:  T. Jeannot (LW) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. E. Cernak (D) Ques Sat - Upper Body. B. Seabrook (D) out for season - Shoulder.

“Didn’t get the result. But I don’t think it has anything to do with the moment or anything like that. It’s a good hockey team we’re playing. They played as perfect a road game as you could probably ask.” - Sheldon Keefe after his team’s loss against the Lightning in their game on Thursday, game 5 of this series.

“Don’t bet against the guys — not that group. I’m not saying we’ve won the series. We’ve won one game and still have so far to go. They dug their heels in tonight. And who really dug his heels in tonight was the goalie.” - Jon Cooper after his team’s win against the Leafs in their game on Thursday, game 5 of this series.

LW Järnkrok, Calle

C Matthews, Auston

RW Nylander, William

LD McCabe, Jake

RD Brodie, TJ

G Samsonov, Ilya

LW Stamkos, Steven

C Point, Brayden

RW Kucherov, Nikita

LD Hedman, Victor

RD Perbix, Nick

G Vasilevskiy, Andrei

Points: M. Marner (99)

Goals: W. Nylander (40)

Assists: M. Marner (69)

GAA: J. Alexander (0.00)

Points: N. Kucherov (113)

Goals: B. Point (51)

Assists: N. Kucherov (83)

GAA: A. Vasilevskiy (2.65)

Coaches:

Toronto Maple Leafs: Sheldon Keefe (4th season)

Tampa Bay Lightning: Jon Cooper (11th season)