Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, Preview and Odds - 04/24/2023

Game Time: 7:30 pm ET, Monday, April 24, 2023

Venue:  Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL

Where to Watch:  TBS

DraftKings:  Moneyline:  Maple Leafs -110, Lightning -110; Over/Under:  6.5 goals

Bet365:  Moneyline:  Maple Leafs -115, Lightning -105; Over/Under:  6.5 goals

BetMGM:  Moneyline:  Maple Leafs -115, Lightning -105; Over/Under:  6.5 goals

Toronto Maple Leafs:  50-21-11 (2nd place, Atlantic Division)

Tampa Bay Lightning:  46-30-6 (3rd place, Atlantic Division)

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Toronto Maple Leafs:  7-2-1 last 10

Tampa Bay Lightning:  4-5-1 last 10

The Maple Leafs are entering this game finishing the regular season with 111 points, a 50-21-11 record overall, and they were 23-13-5 in their road games this regular season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 2 game winning streak with both wins coming against the Tampa Bay Lightning in their last 2 games, winning that last one on the road 4-3 in overtime. Ryan O'Reilly, Noel Acciari, Auston Matthews, and Morgan Rielly each scored 1 goal in that game. Ryan O'Reilly and Mitch Marner each led the team in assists with 2 while William Nylander led the team in shots on net in that game with 7. Ilya Samsonov was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 3 goals on 39 shots with 36 saves and a .923 sv percentage. Their offense has scored 279 goals this season averaging 3.4 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 222 goals against them allowing 2.7 goals per game.

The Lightning are entering this game finishing the regular season with 98 points, a 46-30-6 record overall, and they were 28-8-5 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 2 game losing streak with both losses coming against the Toronto Maple Leafs in their last game, losing that last one at home 4-3 in OT. Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli, and Darren Raddysh each scored 1 goal in that game. Brandon Hagel, Ross Colton, Alex Killorn, Nikita Kucherov, Corey Perry, and Steven Stamkos each led the team in assists with 1 while Brayden Point led the team in shots on net in that game with 7. Andrei Vasilevskiy was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 4 goals on 27 shots with 23 saves and a .811 sv percentage. Their offense has scored 283 goals this season averaging 3.5 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 254 goals against them allowing 3.1 goals per game.

The current betting odds have the Lightning listed as a pick 'em in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 4 of a 7-game series between the Lightning and the Maple Leafs for the 1st round of the NHL Eastern Conference playoffs. The Leafs are entering this game with a 2-1 series lead after stealing the 1st game in Tampa Bay of this series with an overtime a win, a game they were really fortunate to win as they were trailing for a lot of that game before tying it up with less than 1 minute to go in regulation and then grinding out the win in OT. The Lightning have now lost 2 games in a row in this series but this is still the team that won 2 Stanley Cups in a row and went to the finals again last year, they are going to dig deep in this game and even up the series here on home ice. They have the playoff experience on their side and they are familiar being in this situation as they were trailing in the 1st round of the playoffs to the Leafs last season too. The Lightning know it will be a very uphill battle for them if they go back to Toronto down 3-1 in the series when the Leafs were such a good team on home ice all season, they will make sure they do whatever it takes to even up the series here and put the pressure back on the Leafs to take the series lead back. The best way to place a bet here is on the Lightning to win this game and even up the series 2-2.

Maple Leafs Lightning Prediction:  Our NHL Pick for Monday, April 24, 2023 (7:30 pm ET start time) is Lightning 4 Maple Leafs 2.

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Toronto Maple Leafs: 29-11 (+10.8 units) on the moneyline after playing a game where 7 or more total goals were scored. 28-12 (+8.8 units) on the moneyline after one or more consecutive overs. 21-9 OVER after 3 or more consecutive overs. 8-2 OVER as a # 2 seed in the playoffs.

Tampa Bay Lightning: 13-16 (-10.8 units) on the moneyline vs. division opponents. 19-25 (-20 units) on the moneyline after playing a game where 7 or more total goals were scored. 25-13 OVER in a home game where the total is 6 or more. 30-19 OVER off a loss against a division rival.

Toronto Maple Leafs:  M. Bunting (LW) Elig Thurs - Suspension. V. Mete (D) Early May - Lower Body. M. Murray (G) Out indefinitely - Head. E. Gustafsson (D) Ques Mon - Personal. B. McMann (C) Out indefinitely - Knee. J. Muzzin (D) out for season - Neck. N. Robertson (LW) out for season - Shoulder.

Tampa Bay Lightning:  M. Eyssimont (C) Ques Mon - Undisclosed. E. Cernak (D) Ques Mon - Head. B. Seabrook (D) out for season - Shoulder.

“It wasn't the best game by us, but we did a good job of sticking with it.” - Ryan O’Reilly after their win against the Lightning in their game on Saturday, game 3 of this series.

“I really like the way we played. We won one, and took another to overtime. This wasn't the result we wanted ... but it's a gutty group. I liked the way we responded.” - Jon Cooper after his team’s loss against the Leafs in their game on Saturday, game 3 of this series.

LW Järnkrok, Calle

C Matthews, Auston

RW Marner, Mitchell

LD McCabe, Jake

RD Brodie, TJ

G Samsonov, Ilya

LW Stamkos, Steven

C Point, Brayden

RW Kucherov, Nikita

LD Hedman, Victor

RD Perbix, Nick

G Vasilevskiy, Andrei

Points: M. Marner (99)

Goals: W. Nylander (40)

Assists: M. Marner (69)

GAA: J. Alexander (0.00)

Points: N. Kucherov (113)

Goals: B. Point (51)

Assists: N. Kucherov (83)

GAA: A. Vasilevskiy (2.65)

Coaches:

Toronto Maple Leafs: Sheldon Keefe (4th season)

Tampa Bay Lightning: Jon Cooper (11th season)