Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, Preview and Odds - 04/22/2023

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Saturday, April 22, 2023

Venue:  Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL

Where to Watch:  TBS

DraftKings:  Moneyline:  Maple Leafs -120, Lightning +100; Over/Under:  6 goals

Bet365:  Moneyline:  Maple Leafs -115, Lightning -105; Over/Under:  6.5 goals

BetMGM:  Moneyline:  Maple Leafs -115, Lightning -105; Over/Under:  6.5 goals

Toronto Maple Leafs:  50-21-11 (2nd place, Atlantic Division)

Tampa Bay Lightning:  46-30-6 (3rd place, Atlantic Division)

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Toronto Maple Leafs:  7-2-1 last 10

Tampa Bay Lightning:  5-5-0 last 10

The Maple Leafs are entering this game finishing the regular season with 111 points, a 50-21-11 record overall, and they were 23-13-5 in their road games this regular season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off of a win against the Tampa Bay Lightning in their last game, winning that one at home 7-2. John Tavares had a hattrick scoring 3 goals, Mitch Marner scored 2 goals, while William Nylander and Zach Aston-Reese each scored 1 goal in that game. Morgan Rielly led the team in assists with 4 while John Tavares and Ryan O'Reilly each led the team in shots on net in that game with 6. Ilya Samsonov was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 2 goals on 22 shots with 20 saves and a .909 sv percentage. Their offense has scored 279 goals this season averaging 3.4 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 222 goals against them allowing 2.7 goals per game.

The Lightning are entering this game finishing the regular season with 98 points, a 46-30-6 record overall, and they were 28-8-5 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off of a loss against the Toronto Maple Leafs in their last game, losing that one on the road 7-2. Ian Cole and Corey Perry each scored 1 goal in that game. Pierre-Édouard Bellemare, Patrick Maroon, Brayden Point, and Steven Stamkos each led the team in assists with 1 while Corey Perry, Steven Stamkos, and Nikita Kucherov each led the team in shots on net in that game with 3. Andrei Vasilevskiy was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 7 goals on 37 shots with 30 saves and a .811 sv percentage. Their offense has scored 283 goals this season averaging 3.5 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 254 goals against them allowing 3.1 goals per game.

The current betting odds have the Lightning listed as a slight underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 3 of a 7-game series between the Lightning and the Maple Leafs for the 1st round of the NHL Eastern Conference playoffs. This series is all tied up 1-1 going into Tampa Bay after the Leafs responded with a big 7-2 win on home ice to even up the series. The Lightning looked terrible in game 2 after crushing the Leafs in game 1 but they will be looking to respond in this game in a big way after an embarrassing loss like that. The Lightning were nowhere near as good this season as they have been over the last few years but they still have a lot of playoff experience on their team and that will be big in this series. They have flipped it so they have the home advantage now and will try to take advantage of this game to take another series lead. The Leafs have also been bullying the Lightning in this series with some big hits that have injured a few players and the Lightning will be taking note of that as they look to open their home portion of the series with a win to take back the series lead. The Leafs looked great in game 2 but it will be tough for them to put together 2 games in a row like that and the Lightning are going to have some extra motivation here with some of the injuries they have been receiving. The best way to place a bet here is on the Lightning to win this game.

Maple Leafs Lightning Prediction:  Our NHL Pick for Saturday, April 22, 2023 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Lightning 4 Maple Leafs 1.

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Toronto Maple Leafs: 27-12 (+7.8 units) on the moneyline after one or more consecutive overs. 28-11 (+9.8 units) on the moneyline after playing a game where 7 or more total goals were scored. 16-8 OVER after scoring 6 goals or more in their previous game. 28-13 OVER after playing a game where 9 or more total goals were scored.

Tampa Bay Lightning: 13-15 (-9.8 units) on the moneyline vs. division opponents. 9-16 (-14.6 units) on the moneyline revenging a loss where the opponent scored 4 or more goals. 24-13 OVER in a home game where the total is 6 or more. 26-12 OVER after playing a road game.

Toronto Maple Leafs:  M. Bunting (LW) Elig Thurs - Suspension. V. Mete (D) Early May - Lower Body. M. Murray (G) Out indefinitely - Head. E. Gustafsson (D) Ques Sat - Personal. B. McMann (C) Out indefinitely - Knee. J. Muzzin (D) out for season - Neck. N. Robertson (LW) out for season - Shoulder.

Tampa Bay Lightning:  M. Eyssimont (C) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. E. Cernak (D) Ques Sat - Head. V. Hedman (D) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. B. Seabrook (D) out for season - Shoulder.

“That’s the type of performance you’re looking for from those guys. We needed to have a good day today, and we did. Now we have a series.” - Sheldon Keefe after his team’s win against the Lightning in their game on Thursday, game 2 of this series. 

“These guys are pros. We all had a close seat to what happened. They know what’s going on.” - Jon Cooper after his team’s loss against the Leafs in their game on Thursday, game 2 of this series. 

LW Järnkrok, Calle

C Matthews, Auston

RW Marner, Mitchell

LD McCabe, Jake

RD Brodie, TJ

G Samsonov, Ilya

LW Stamkos, Steven

C Point, Brayden

RW Kucherov, Nikita

LD Sergachev, Mikhail

RD Raddysh, Darren

G Vasilevskiy, Andrei

Points: M. Marner (99)

Goals: W. Nylander (40)

Assists: M. Marner (69)

GAA: J. Alexander (0.00)

Points: N. Kucherov (113)

Goals: B. Point (51)

Assists: N. Kucherov (83)

GAA: A. Vasilevskiy (2.65)

Coaches:

Toronto Maple Leafs: Sheldon Keefe (4th season)

Tampa Bay Lightning: Jon Cooper (11th season)