Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, Preview and Odds - 04/17/2024

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Wednesday, April 17, 2024

Venue:  Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL

Where to Watch:  ESPN+

DraftKings:  Moneyline:  Leafs +110, Lightning -130; Over/Under:  6.5 goals

Bet365:  Moneyline:  Leafs +110, Lightning -130; Over/Under:  6.5 goals

BetMGM:  Moneyline:  Leafs +110, Lightning -130; Over/Under:  6.5 goals

Toronto Maple Leafs:  46-24-10 (3rd place, Atlantic Division)

Tampa Bay Lightning:  44-29-8 (4th place, Atlantic Division)

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Toronto Maple Leafs:  6-3-1 last 10

Tampa Bay Lightning:  5-4-1 last 10

The Maple Leafs are entering this game with 102 points, a 46-24-10 record overall, and they are 24-9-6 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Detroit Red Wings in their last game, losing that one at home 5-4 in overtime, but this is also the 2nd game of a back-to-back for them with their game against the Florida Panthers still to be played on Tuesday night. In their game against the Red Wings, Mitchell Marner, Auston Matthews, Nicholas Robertson, and John Tavares each scored 1 goal for them in that game. Mitchell Marner and Morgan Rielly each led the team in assists with 2 while Auston Matthews led the team in shots on net in that game with 10. Ilya Samsonov was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 5 goals on 32 shots with 27 saves and a .844 save percentage. Their offense has scored 297 goals this season averaging 3.7 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 252 goals against them allowing 3.2 goals per game.

The Lightning are entering this game with 96 points, a 44-29-8 record overall, and they are 24-11-5 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Buffalo Sabres in their last game, losing that one at home 4-2. Erik Černák and Steven Stamkos each scored 1 goal for them in that game. Nikita Kucherov and Nicholas Paul each led the team in assists with 1 while Steven Stamkos led the team in shots on net in that game with 7. Andrei Vasilevskiy was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 4 goals on 34 shots with 30 saves and a .882 sv percentage. Their offense has scored 285 goals this season averaging 3.5 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 264 goals against them allowing 3.3 goals per game.

The current betting odds have the Lightning listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Lightning have looked good in their games this season with their 44-29-8 record overall which has them in 4th place of their division in the East and in the 1st Wild Card spot, having clinched that a few games ago. They have also looked a lot better on home ice this year with their 24-11-5 home record. Meanwhile, the Leafs have looked really good in their games this season with their 46-24-10 record overall which has them in 3rd place of their division in the East and in a playoff spot. Just like the Lightning, the Leafs clinched a playoff spot a while ago and with this being the last game of the regular season, they cannot really move up or down in the standings so they are locked into 3rd place. They have looked really good in their road games this year with their 24-9-6 road record too, but they aren't in a great situation for this game. Both of these teams are playing their final games of the regular season and both are already locked into their places, but the Lightning are in a better situation here since they have the homer advantage and will be rested for this game while the Leafs are playing this one a back-to-back with a harder game against the Panthers the night before. Neither team needs to win this game and the Leafs will likely use the opportunity on this back-to-back to rest some players for the playoffs. The best way to place a bet here is on the Lightning to win this game. 

Maple Leafs Lightning Prediction:  Our NHL Pick for Wednesday, April 17, 2024 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Lightning 4 Leafs 2.

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Toronto Maple Leafs: 29-12 (+9.9 units) on the moneyline off a loss against a division rival. 37-17 (+12.4 units) on the moneyline off a road loss. 20-8 (+7 units) on the moneyline off a road blowout loss by 3 goals or more. 6-3 UNDER off a loss by 2 goals or more to a division rival. 8-2 UNDER after a blowout loss by 3 goals or more in their previous game. 

Tampa Bay Lightning: 48-46 (-16.7 units) on the moneyline vs. division opponents. 11-14 (-8.4 units) on the moneyline off a loss by 2 goals or more to a division rival. 55-48 (-13.6 units) on the moneyline after allowing 4 goals or more. 7-2 UNDER after scoring 2 goals or less in 3 straight games. 7-2 UNDER after 2 straight losses by 2 goals or more.

Toronto Maple Leafs:  B. McMann (C) Out Tues - Lower Body. M. Domi (C) Out Tues - Undisclosed. J. Edmundson (D) Ques Tues - Undisclosed. C. Jarnkrok (C) Out indefinitely - Hand. J. Klingberg (D) out for season - Hip. M. Murray (G) out for season - Hip. J. Muzzin (D) out for season - Spine.

Tampa Bay Lightning:  T. Motte (C) Ques Wed - Lower Body. J. Johansson (G) Late April - Lower Body. H. Fleury (D) Out Mon - Undisclosed. M. Sergachev (D) Early May - Leg. B. Seabrook (D) out for season - Shoulder. L. Brown (C) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed.

“I felt our team was gonna be better. And I felt Sammy needed to be a part of that. Glad it worked out the way it did, because he was outstanding.” - Sheldon Keefe after his team’s loss against the Red Wings in their game on Saturday.

“At times tonight it looked like we just wanted to get out of the game instead of finishing it through.” - Jon Cooper after his team’s loss against the Sabres in their game on Monday.

LW Bertuzzi, Tyler

C Matthews, Auston

RW Marner, Mitchell

LD Rielly, Morgan

RD Lyubushkin, Ilya

G Woll, Joseph

LW Duclair, Anthony

C Point, Brayden

RW Kucherov, Nikita

LD Hedman, Victor

RD Raddysh, Darren

G Vasilevskiy, Andrei

Points: A. Matthews (107)

Goals: A. Matthews (69)

Assists: M. Marner (58)

GAA: M. Jones (2.70)

Points: N. Kucherov (142)

Goals: B. Point (45)

Assists: N. Kucherov (99)

GAA: A. Vasilevskiy (2.90)

Coaches:

Toronto Maple Leafs: Sheldon Keefe (5th season)

Tampa Bay Lightning: Jon Cooper (12th season)