Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Pittsburgh Penguins: Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 11/26/2022

by Chuck Sommers

Saturday, Nov 26, 2022
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Venue: PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh, PA
Where to watch: NHLN, CBC, TVAS, SN, ATTSN-PT

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Penguins -135, Maple Leafs +115
FanDuel: Penguins -128, Maple Leafs +106
BetMGM: Penguins -120, Maple Leafs +100
Caesars: Penguins -135, Maple Leafs +115

Season record
Maple Leafs: 12-5-5
Penguins: 11-7-3

What an electric start to the NHL season. So much parity, so many good teams through the first 10-plus games, you have every right to be excited! Of course the Vegas Golden Knights and Boston Bruins (and the New Jersey Devils?) are heading the fun charge here as the top two teams in the league, because of course they are. But never count out the Avalanche, you know they're always going to be hanging around and will be eating worlds once they get everyone healthy. But this is a good time to be playing these hockey games, as well. Look no further than our own Doc's Sports on a 14-7-0 run over the first 30 days of the NHL season. There's also ASA, Inc. posting a 12-5-1 mark through the first month. You know you can trust our champion handicappers to get you across the finish line with your NHL bets. Check out our Best Bets page at bigal.com to see what we're throwing down!

Maple Leafs - Penguins preview, prediction and analysis


Recent results
Maple Leafs: won 4-3 at Wild
Penguins: won 4-1 at Flyers

Clearly, when the Toronto Maple Leafs need a victory, they call on Matt Murray? Hey, at least winning that game over Marc-Andre Fleury had to feel somewhat good for the Toronto goalie that's now healthy and is determined to play better than what he showed in the first couple of games before he went down injured. Nevertheless, it does appear to be a good time to be a Toronto fan as begrudgingly as I say that. But the Maple Leafs will look to win their third straight game on Saturday when they visit the Pittsburgh Penguins for the second night of a back-to-back.

I will be the one to give the Leafs their flowers for this game against Minnesota, which was a four dash 3V over the wild in Minnesota. They played well, and the goalie played well, which those are things that when you think about Toronto this year they do not add up whatsoever. Toronto has just been a run-of-the-mill team that has not looked good all year long and has been able to really just work a lot of people knowing that they should be bad but somehow they're good and none of it makes sense to me.

But when you look at Toronto in the grand scheme of things you start to understand that at some point they're gonna have to put the talent together. The collection of talents and the overall body of work that Toronto is trying to instill hasn't really meshed together. But what has worked is that they are actually playing a more sound team style of hockey. When you are looking at this Toronto team from the standpoint that they are missing 3 defensemen and have responded in kind with ending the New Jersey Devils 13 game-winning streak, and to come back right off a holiday and win by a goal over Minnesota, which really should be taken into consideration because a lot of the Canadian people on that roster don't celebrate American Thanksgiving but I digress.

Nevertheless Toronto has been able to play very well in this instance and they have been able to squeeze out a couple of victories that maybe three weeks ago they would not have been able to get because of how inept they look on offense and how decimated they are at the back end. Now the fact that Morgan Riley is out for an extended period of time, toronto's defense is gonna have to be all hands on deck for the longest time and I am not going to be the one to try and tell them who they should put where and what not because that is a Sheldon Keefe type of situation that has never made sense under any circumstances whatsoever.

But if you are Toronto you gotta be feeling pretty good about yourself. That's going to put a lot of pressure on Pittsburgh because now the Penguins suddenly are the hottest team in hockey because now they are the ones that will not lose a game period Pittsburgh has won five straight and is coming off a 4-0 road trip in which four of those winds came on the road. You're talking about wins at Minnesota, at Winnipeg, at Chicago, and at Philadelphia. The one home win was against Calgary and that in itself is a mission accomplished from this author.

You look at the road games in that stretch and you see that Pittsburgh really hasn't played anybody that resembles that kind of adoration, but considering the fact that the sky was falling ever so harshly for Pittsburgh not even two weeks ago when Sidney Crosby was scoring goals at will and they were finding ways to lose 6-2, you'll really take anything at this point if you are Pittsburgh.

Prediction


if Murray was going again for Toronto, I would have a lot more confidence that Toronto on the second night of a back-to-back could win a game like this. However I don't see that happening. And I promise it has nothing to do with my Toronto bias. This is a team that is very capable of winning some games when needed, but sometimes rest and fatigue can catch up to some people. Penguins win 3-2

Betting trends


Maple Leafs are 9-0 on the road in November the last 2 seasons.

Penguins are 14-18 after winning 4 or 5 of their last 6 the last two seasons.

Maple Leafs are 10-15 on the road in 2nd game in 5 days the last 3 seasons.

Projected lines


Maple Leafs:

Michael Bunting -- Auston Matthews -- William Nylander

Nicholas Robertson -- John Tavares -- Mitchell Marner

Alexander Kerfoot -- Pontus Holmberg -- Calle Jarnkrok

Zach Aston-Reese -- David Kampf -- Pierre Engvall

Mark Giordano -- Justin Holl

Victor Mete -- Mac Hollowell

Rasmus Sandin -- Timothy Liljegren

Erik Kallgren

Penguins:

Jake Guentzel -- Sidney Crosby -- Rickard Rakell

Jason Zucker -- Evgeni Malkin -- Bryan Rust

Brock McGinn -- Jeff Carter -- Danton Heinen

Ryan Poehling -- Teddy Blueger -- Josh Archibald

Marcus Pettersson -- Kris Letang

Pierre-Olivier Joseph -- Jeff Petry

Brian Dumoulin -- Jan Rutta

Tristan Jarry

Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert hockey picks today. And if you enjoyed this Toronto Maple Leafs - Pittsburgh Penguins prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily NHL projections and previews.

Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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