Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/01/2025

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Thursday, May 1, 2025

Venue:  Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, ON 

Where to Watch:  TBS, MAX

DraftKings:  Moneyline:  Leafs -102, Senators -118; Over/Under:  5.5 goals

Bet365:  Moneyline:  Leafs +100, Senators -120; Over/Under:  5.5 goals

BetMGM:  Moneyline:  Leafs +100, Senators -115; Over/Under:  5.5 goals

Toronto Maple Leafs:  52-26-4 (1st place, Atlantic Division)

Ottawa Senators:  45-30-7 (4th place, Atlantic Division)

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Toronto Maple Leafs:  8-1-1 last 10

Ottawa Senators:  5-2-3 last 10

The Maple Leafs are entering the playoffs with 108 points, a 52-26-4 record overall, and they were 25-13-3 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Ottawa Senators in their last game, losing that one at home 4-0. No one on the team scored a goal for them or recorded an assist in that one. Matthew Knies led the team in shots on net in that game with 6. Anthony Stolarz was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 2 goals on 17 shots with 15 saves and a .882 sv percentage. Their offense has scored 268 goals this season averaging 3.3 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 231 goals against them allowing 2.8 goals per game.

The Senators are entering the playoffs with 97 points, a 45-30-7 record overall, and they were 27-11-3 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Toronto Maple Leafs in their last game, winning that one on the road 4-0. Tim Stützle, Brady Tkachuk, Thomas Chabot, and Dylan Cozens each scored 1 goal for them in that one. Tim Stützle and Brady Tkachuk each led the team in assists with 2 while Brady Tkachuk led the team in shots on net in that game with 5. Linus Ullmark was the starting goalie in that game and he recorded the shutout as he allowed 0 goals on 29 shots with 29 saves and a 1.000 save percentage. Their offense has scored 243 goals this season averaging 3 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 234 goals against them allowing 2.9 goals per game.

The current betting odds have the Senators listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 6 of a 7 game series between the 1st seeded Maple Leafs and the 1st Wild Card seeded Senators from the Atlantic Division for the 1st round of the NHL playoffs. The Maple Leafs are leading this series 3-2 after the Senators won game 5 on the road. The Senators made it a 3-2 series with a 4-0 road win over the Maple Leafs in the 5th game of this series and now they have some momentum on their side. They gutted out a tight OT win in game 4 to avoid the sweep, but now they are going back home off a shutout win and have 2 wins in a row now. It is very rare for a team to come back from a 3-0 series deficit in the NHL, but if there is any team that can blow a 3-0 lead, it is the Maple Leafs. They have had some success in the playoffs in recent years and have a lot more playoff experience on their side than the Senators do, but they have also struggled to close a series out in the past and now they are going to start feeling the pressure of a much closer series. The Senators haven't played badly in this series either with 2 of their losses coming in overtime so now that they have their feet planted in the series, look for them to bring that same effort that they did in the last game. The Senators also crushed the Maple Leafs in the regular season this year so they know how to beat this team and now that they have been given a lifeline in the series, they will take advantage of it at home. The best way to place a bet here is on the Senators to win this game. 

Maple Leafs Senators Prediction:  Our NHL Pick for Thursday, May 1, 2025 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Senators 4 Leafs 3.

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Toronto Maple Leafs: 158-109 (-9.8 units) on the moneyline in all games. 59-49 (-17.9 units) on the moneyline revenging a loss versus opponent as a favorite. 77-55 (-8.1 units) on the moneyline after playing a home game. 4-1 UNDER when attempting to close out a playoff series.

Ottawa Senators: 29-17 (+8.3 units) on the moneyline at home when the money line is -100 to -150. 29-15 (+15.1 units) on the moneyline off a win against a division rival. 78-60 (+8.8 units) on the moneyline against poor defensive teams - 29 shots on goal or more, converting 17% pp or more. 28-13 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%).

Toronto Maple Leafs:  J. Hakanpaa (D) Out - Knee.

Ottawa Senators:  H. Hodgson (RW) Day To Day - Lower-body. 

“He couldn’t see it. So, first of all, we can do a better job off that face-off and we’ve got to have a block there or we’ve got to have guys clearing the net out in front of the net so we can see the puck. One of the two.” - Craig Berube after his team’s loss against the Senators in game 5 of this series on Tuesday.

“Not surprising. I feel like I’ve been talking about Linus a lot this series and we’ve got a lot of confidence in him and rightfully so. He was sharp again tonight.” - Travis Green on Linus Ullmark after his team’s win against the Maple Leafs in game 5 of this series on Tuesday.

LW Matthew Knies

C Auston Matthews

RW Mitchell Marner

LD Jake McCabe

RD Christopher Tanev

G Anthony Stolarz

LW Brady Tkachuk

C Tim Stutzle

RW Claude Giroux

LD Jake Sanderson

RD Artyom Zub

G Linus Ullmark

Points: M. Marner (102)

Goals: W. Nylander (45)

Assists: M. Marner (75)

GAA: A. Stolarz (2.14)

Points: T. Stutzle (79)

Goals: B. Tkachuk (29)

Assists: T. Stutzle (55)

GAA: L. Ullmark (2.72)

Coaches:

Toronto Maple Leafs: Craig Berube (1st season)

Ottawa Senators: Travis Green (1st season)