Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators Prediction, Preview and Odds - 04/26/2025

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Saturday, April 26, 2025

Venue:  Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, ON 

Where to Watch:  TBS, MAX, truTV

DraftKings:  Moneyline:  Leafs -105, Senators -115; Over/Under:  5.5 goals

Bet365:  Moneyline:  Leafs -105, Senators -115; Over/Under:  5.5 goals

BetMGM:  Moneyline:  Leafs -105, Senators -115; Over/Under:  5.5 goals

Toronto Maple Leafs:  52-26-4 (1st place, Atlantic Division)

Ottawa Senators:  45-30-7 (4th place, Atlantic Division)

Do not miss out on our expert handicapper analysis! Brian Bitler is on a HOT STREAK in the NHL on a 20-11 NHL RUN for +$8,040 PROFIT! Make sure you check out his picks and many more from the expert handicappers featured in the Shop Picks section.

Toronto Maple Leafs:  9-1-0 last 10

Ottawa Senators:  5-2-3 last 10

The Maple Leafs are entering the playoffs with 108 points, a 52-26-4 record overall, and they were 25-13-3 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Ottawa Senators in their last game, winning that one on the road 3-2 in overtime. Auston Matthews, Simon Benoit, and Matthew Knies each scored 1 goal for them in that one. Mitchell Marner led the team in assists with 2 while Simon Benoit, Bobby McMann, and John Tavares each led the team in shots on net in that game with 3. Anthony Stolarz was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 2 goals on 20 shots with 18 saves and a .900 sv percentage. Their offense has scored 268 goals this season averaging 3.3 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 231 goals against them allowing 2.8 goals per game.

The Senators are entering the playoffs with 97 points, a 45-30-7 record overall, and they were 27-11-3 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Toronto Maple Leafs in their last game, losing that one at home 3-2 in OT. Claude Giroux and Brady Tkachuk each scored 1 goal for them in that one. Claude Giroux, Drake Batherson, Tyler Kleven, and Jake Sanderson each led the team in assists with 1 while Brady Tkachuk led the team in shots on net in that game with 4. Linus Ullmark was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 3 goals on 20 shots with 17 saves and a .850 save percentage. Their offense has scored 243 goals this season averaging 3 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 234 goals against them allowing 2.9 goals per game.

The current betting odds have the Maple Leafs listed as a slight underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 4 of a 7 game series between the 1st seeded Maple Leafs and the 1st Wild Card seeded Senators from the Atlantic Division for the 1st round of the NHL playoffs. The Maple Leafs are leading this series 3-0 after winning game 3 on the road. The Maple Leafs took a 3-0 series lead with a 3-2 win over the Senators and they have now won 2 games in a row in overtime. The Maple Leafs did not beat the Senators during the regular season, but the opposite has been true in the playoffs so far. They opened the series with a big 6-2 win over the Senators and have now played 2 tighter games in a row, both games going to OT, but they gutted out each of those games to win and that is only going to give them momentum coming into this one. The Senators looked a lot better on home ice all season, but they have struggled to find the net on them in this series and that is going to be a key part of their downfall. The Maple Leafs also have playoff experience from previous years to lean on here while the Senators made the playoffs for the first time in years, so the Maple Leafs know what they need to do to close out this series. The Maple Leafs aren't going to take anything for granted in the playoffs, especially when they have been so dominant over another team in a series, so look for them to bring their best effort here and deliver the final blow in this series. The best way to place a bet here is on the Maple Leafs to win this game. 

Maple Leafs Senators Prediction:  Our NHL Pick for Saturday, April 26, 2025 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Leafs 4 Senators 3.

Don't miss our champion handicappers free picks and expert hockey picks today. And if you enjoyed this Toronto Maple Leafs Ottawa Senators prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our weekly NHL predictions and previews.

Toronto Maple Leafs: 158-107 (-7.1 units) on the moneyline in all games. 91-66 (-17.2 units) on the moneyline off a win in their previous game. 20-26 (-19.8 units) on the moneyline after a 3 game winning streak. 4-1 UNDER when leading in a playoff series. 

Ottawa Senators: 70-52 (+9.3 units) on the moneyline in home games. 28-17 (+7.2 units) on the moneyline at home when the money line is -100 to -150. 69-52 (+13.7 units) on the moneyline after playing a home game. 27-12 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%).

Toronto Maple Leafs:  J. Hakanpaa (D) Out - Knee.

Ottawa Senators:  H. Hodgson (RW) Day To Day - Lower-body. 

“It’s always great when a guy like that scores a goal. A big goal like that, overtime goal, game-winner. ‘Beny’ has played extremely well for us defensively and being hard to play against and does all of those things. So, it’s nice when guys like that are rewarded with a big goal.” - Craig Berube after his team’s win against the Senators in game 3 of this series on Thursday.

"There's not much I'm going to say to them right now that's going to help or make them feel any better. It's disheartening, to say the least. I thought both teams played a hell of a game. And sometimes playoff hockey comes down to little inches or bounces, and we were on the wrong end of it tonight.” - Travis Green after his team’s loss against the Maple Leafs in game 3 of this series on Thursday.

LW Matthew Knies

C Auston Matthews

RW Mitchell Marner

LD Jake McCabe

RD Christopher Tanev

G Anthony Stolarz

LW Brady Tkachuk

C Tim Stutzle

RW Claude Giroux

LD Jake Sanderson

RD Artyom Zub

G Linus Ullmark

Points: M. Marner (102)

Goals: W. Nylander (45)

Assists: M. Marner (75)

GAA: A. Stolarz (2.14)

Points: T. Stutzle (79)

Goals: B. Tkachuk (29)

Assists: T. Stutzle (55)

GAA: L. Ullmark (2.72)

Coaches:

Toronto Maple Leafs: Craig Berube (1st season)

Ottawa Senators: Travis Green (1st season)