Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators Prediction, Preview and Odds - 04/24/2025

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Thursday, April 24, 2025

Venue:  Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, ON 

Where to Watch:  ESPN2

DraftKings:  Moneyline:  Leafs -108, Senators -112; Over/Under:  5.5 goals

Bet365:  Moneyline:  Leafs -110, Senators -110; Over/Under:  5.5 goals

BetMGM:  Moneyline:  Leafs -110, Senators -110; Over/Under:  5.5 goals

Toronto Maple Leafs:  52-26-4 (1st place, Atlantic Division)

Ottawa Senators:  45-30-7 (4th place, Atlantic Division)

Do not miss out on our expert handicapper analysis! Amedeus Mastrangelo is on a HOT STREAK in the NHL on a 7-2 NHL RUN for +$5,350 PROFIT! Make sure you check out his picks and many more from the expert handicappers featured in the Shop Picks section.

Toronto Maple Leafs:  9-1-0 last 10

Ottawa Senators:  6-2-2 last 10

The Maple Leafs are entering the playoffs with 108 points, a 52-26-4 record overall, and they were 25-13-3 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Ottawa Senators in their last game, winning that one at home 3-2 in overtime. John Tavares, Max Domi, and Morgan Rielly each scored 1 goal for them in that one. John Tavares, Simon Benoit, Mitchell Marner, Auston Matthews, and William Nylander each led the team in assists with 1 while Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Morgan Rielly, and Pontus Holmberg each led the team in shots on net in that game with 3. Anthony Stolarz was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 2 goals on 28 shots with 26 saves and a .928 sv percentage. Their offense has scored 268 goals this season averaging 3.3 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 231 goals against them allowing 2.8 goals per game.

The Senators are entering the playoffs with 97 points, a 45-30-7 record overall, and they were 27-11-3 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Toronto Maple Leafs in their last game, losing that one on the road 3-2 in OT. Adam Gaudette and Brady Tkachuk each scored 1 goal for them in that one. Thomas Chabot, Claude Giroux, Tyler Kleven, and Tim Stützle each led the team in assists with 1 while Brady Tkachuk and Dylan Cozens each led the team in shots on net in that game with 5. Linus Ullmark was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 3 goals on 21 shots with 18 saves and a .857 save percentage. Their offense has scored 243 goals this season averaging 3 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 234 goals against them allowing 2.9 goals per game.

The current betting odds have the Senators listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 3 of a 7 game series between the 1st seeded Maple Leafs and the 1st Wild Card seeded Senators from the Atlantic Division for the 1st round of the NHL playoffs. The Maple Leafs are leading this series 2-0 after winning game 2 at home. The Maple Leafs took a 2-0 series lead with a 3-2 win over the Senators in the 2nd game of this series, but that was a much tighter game that went to overtime and looked nothing like the 6-2 crushing in game 1. The Maple Leafs crushed the Senators in game 1, but the Senators looked a lot better in that tight game 2 and they did have a lot of success against the Maple Leafs during the regular season so they have a good chance of getting their first win of the series here. The Maple Leafs were a really good road team this year, but the Senators also looked a lot better on home ice with their 27-11-3 home record. The Senators are going to have a much better effort in this one at home where they have played a lot better all season, and they can't afford to go down 3-0 in this series or it might just be over so look for them to bring their best effort and throw everything they have at the Maple Leafs to get a win here. The Senators don't have the playoff experience that the Maple Leafs have, but they played well enough to get the win in that 2nd game and this is a desperate situation for them. The best way to place a bet here is on the Senators to win this game.  

Maple Leafs Senators Prediction:  Our NHL Pick for Thursday, April 24, 2025 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Senators 2 Leafs 1.

Don't miss our champion handicappers free picks and expert hockey picks today. And if you enjoyed this Toronto Maple Leafs Ottawa Senators prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our weekly NHL predictions and previews.

Toronto Maple Leafs: 122-80 (-23.4 units) on the moneyline as a favorite. 90-66 (-18.3 units) on the moneyline off a win in their previous game. 76-55 (-9.2 units) on the moneyline after playing a home game. 16-10 UNDER off a home win against a division rival.

Ottawa Senators: 70-51 (+10.6 units) on the moneyline in home games. 28-16 (+8.5 units) on the moneyline at home when the money line is -100 to -150. 43-39 (+5.6 units) on the moneyline revenging a same season loss vs opponent. 26-12 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%).

Toronto Maple Leafs:  M. Pacioretty (LW) Day To Day - Undisclosed. J. Hakanpaa (D) Out - Knee.

Ottawa Senators:  H. Hodgson (RW) Day To Day - Lower-body. 

“The first period was really good, I liked our start a lot. We came out playing on our toes, got to our forecheck. We were aggressive, we got out to a good lead and the power play came through again. Second period, I thought they were the better team. We didn’t make plays. We looked like we were protecting the lead a little bit, didn’t make enough plays, didn’t advance it and get to the offensive zone enough. The third period was fine, we were in good shape. The goal was the first shot we gave up in the third period.” - Craig Berube after his team’s win against the Senators in game 2 of this series on Tuesday.

“We didn’t give up and we played our game. We didn’t give them a whole lot, probably the last 40 minutes of the game, and we were in their zone on top of them, which is exactly the way we want to play. I mean, it [stinks] to lose in overtime, don’t get me wrong, but there’s still some positives to take away from it. So, just got to turn the page and get excited to go home.” - Thomas Chabot after their loss against the Maple Leafs in game 2 of this series on Tuesday.

LW Matthew Knies

C Auston Matthews

RW Mitchell Marner

LD Jake McCabe

RD Christopher Tanev

G Anthony Stolarz

LW Brady Tkachuk

C Tim Stutzle

RW Claude Giroux

LD Jake Sanderson

RD Artyom Zub

G Linus Ullmark

Points: M. Marner (102)

Goals: W. Nylander (45)

Assists: M. Marner (75)

GAA: A. Stolarz (2.14)

Points: T. Stutzle (79)

Goals: B. Tkachuk (29)

Assists: T. Stutzle (55)

GAA: L. Ullmark (2.72)

Coaches:

Toronto Maple Leafs: Craig Berube (1st season)

Ottawa Senators: Travis Green (1st season)