by Amedeus Mastrangelo
Saturday, Nov 20, 2021
Game Time: 7:30 pm ET, Sunday, November 21, 2021
Venue: UBS Arena, Elmont, NY
Where to Watch: MSG+
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline: Maple Leafs -125, Islanders +105; Over/Under: NL goals
Bet365: Moneyline: Maple Leafs -115, Islanders -105; Over/Under: 5.5 goals
BetMGM: Moneyline: Maple Leafs -115, Islanders -105; Over/Under: 5.5 goals
Season Record
Toronto Maple Leafs: 12-5-1 (2nd place, Atlantic Division)
New York Islanders: 5-6-2 (8th place, Metropolitan Division)
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Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders Preview and Analysis
Recent Form
Toronto Maple Leafs: 9-1-0 last 10
New York Islanders: 4-4-2 last 10
Toronto Maple Leafs Analysis
The Leafs are coming into this game with a 12-5-1 record overall and they are 3-3-0 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They have won their last 5 games straight and 10 of their last 11 games, coming into this game on a 5 game winning streak after another win in their last game against the New York Rangers in regulation. They still have a game on Saturday night against the Pittsburgh Penguins that still needs to be played with that result pending, so this will be the 2nd leg of a back-to-back for them on Sunday night. In their game against the Rangers, Morgan Rielly scored both of the goals for them in that game. Michael Bunting, Auston Matthews, Wayne Simmonds, and John Tavares all had 1 assist each in that one. Tavares led the team in shots on goal with 5. Jack Campbell was the starting goaltender in that game and he allowed 1 goal on 28 shots with 27 saves and a .964 sv percentage. They have scored 46 goals in their 17 games this season averaging 2.7 goals scored per game and they have allowed their opponents to score 47 goals against them allowing 2.8 goals per game.
New York Islanders Analysis
The Isles are coming into this game with a 5-6-2 record overall and this will be their 2nd home game of the season after starting their regular season on the road for 13 straight games while their new arena was being built. Their home opener is still to be played on Saturday night against the Calgary Flames with that result pending, so this will be the 2nd leg of a back-to-back for them on Sunday night. The Islanders are coming into this one on a 4 game losing streak after another loss against the Florida Panthers in the last game that they have played as of right now. Kyle Palmieri was the only one able to put a puck in the back of the net in that game while Noah Dobson and Kieffer Bellows both had 1 assist each. Dobson along with Anders Lee both led the team in shots on goal with 4 each in that one. Ilya Sorokin was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 4 goals on 17 shots with 13 saves and a .765 sv percentage. He was pulled after allowing 4 goals and he was replaced by Semyon Varlamaov who allowed another 2 goals on 19 shots with 17 saves and a .895 sv percentage. They have scored 29 goals in their 13 games this season averaging 2.2 goals scored per game and they have allowed their opponents to score 39 goals against them allowing 3 goals per game.
Maple Leafs vs Islanders Prediction
The Leafs are coming into this game as a -125 favorite with the current betting odds according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Leafs have been playing very well after a rough start to their season, they are the hottest team in the NHL right now with the amount of games they have been winning recently. The Islanders just got back from a long 13 game road trip to start the season and are playing their first 2 home games of the season on the weekend. Both teams are on a back-to-back here but this is going to be a let down spot for the Islanders as it will be the game right after their home opener in a new building and with the way the Leafs have been playing, the value is too good in this spot. The best bet to place in this game is on the Leafs to win this game on the moneyline.
Maple Leafs Islanders Prediction: Our NHL Pick for Sunday, November 21, 2021 (7:30 pm ET start time) is Leafs 3 Islanders 1.
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NHL Betting Trends
Toronto Maple Leafs: 89-67 (-23.2 units) in all games. 34-25 (-2.2 units) first half of the season. 35-21 (-4.2 units) when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days.
New York Islanders: 96-82 (+3.2 units) in all games. 30-20 (+2.9 units) in a home game where where the total is 5.5. 30-21 (+6.7 units) first half of the season.
Key Injuries
Toronto Maple Leafs: P. Mrazek (G) Early Dec - Groin injury. I. Mikheyev (RW) Mid Dec - Thumb injury.
New York Islanders: R. Johnston (LW) Out indefinitely - Illness. A. Lee (LW) Out indefinitely - Illness. R. Pulock (D) Late Dec - Lower Body injury. J. Bailey (RW) Out indefinitely - Illness.
Notable Quotes
“It’s a mindset. That’s half the battle in most things, if not more than that. Once you get it in your mind that you’re gonna play a certain way, and you’re just not going to give up chances against, the rest follows.’ - Morgan Rielly on their big win streak after another win against the rangers on Thursday night.
“There wasn’t a big window as Barkov came laterally between him (Mayfield) and another player. He looked like he was trying to hit him shoulder to shoulder. I know Scott, there’s no intent there. It’s all in the interpretation.” - Barry Trotz after their loss against the Panthers on Tuesday night.
Starting Lineups
Toronto Maple Leafs
LW Ritchie, Nick
C Matthews, Auston
RW Marner, Mitchell
LD Rielly, Morgan
RD Brodie, TJ
G Campbell, Jack
New York Islanders
LW Bellows, Kieffer
C Mathew Barzal
RW Anthony Beauvillier
LD Pelech, Adam
RD Mayfield, Scott
G Sorokin, Ilya
Statistical Leaders
Toronto Maple Leafs
Points: W. Nylander (16)
Goals: J. Tavares (8)
Assists: M. Marner (11)
GAA: J. Campbell (1.63)
New York Islanders
Points: B. Nelson (9)
Goals: B. Nelson (7)
Assists: J. Bailey (5)
GAA: I. Sorokin (2.50)
Coaches:
Toronto Maple Leafs: Sheldon Keefe (3rd season)
New York Islanders: Barry Trotz (4th season)
Amedeus Mastrangelo
About the Author:
Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.
