Toronto Maple Leafs vs Florida Panthers Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/11/2025

Game Time: 7:30 pm ET, Sunday, May 11, 2025

Venue:  Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise, FL

Where to Watch:  TBS, MAX, truTV

DraftKings:  Moneyline:  Leafs +160, Panthers -192; Over/Under:  6.5 goals

Bet365:  Moneyline:  Leafs +160, Panthers -190; Over/Under:  6 goals

BetMGM:  Moneyline:  Leafs +165, Panthers -200; Over/Under:  6 goals

Toronto Maple Leafs:  52-26-4 (1st place, Atlantic Division)

Florida Panthers:  47-31-4 (3rd place, Atlantic Division)

Do not miss out on our expert handicapper analysis! Amedeus Mastrangelo is on a HOT STREAK in the NHL on a 37-27 NHL RUN for +$10,330 PROFIT! Make sure you check out his picks and many more from the expert handicappers featured in the Shop Picks section.

Toronto Maple Leafs:  7-1-2 last 10

Florida Panthers:  5-5-0 last 10

The Maple Leafs are entering the playoffs with 108 points, a 52-26-4 record overall, and they were 25-13-3 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Florida Panthers in their last game, losing that one on the road 5-4 in overtime. John Tavares led the team in goals scored with 2 while Matthew Knies and Morgan Rielly each scored 1 goal for them in that one. Mitchell Marner, Auston Matthews, and William Nylander each led the team in assists with 2 while John Tavares led the team in shots on net in that game with 6. Joseph Woll was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 5 goals on 37 shots with 32 saves and a .865 sv percentage. Their offense has scored 268 goals this season averaging 3.3 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 231 goals against them allowing 2.8 goals per game.

The Panthers are entering the playoffs with 98 points, a 47-31-4 record overall, and they were 27-12-2 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Toronto Maple Leafs in their last game, winning that one at home 5-4 in OT. Sam Reinhart, Carter Verhaeghe, Aleksander Barkov, Jonah Gadjovich, and Brad Marchand each scored 1 goal for them in that one. Evan Rodrigues led the team in assists with 2 while Sam Reinhart led the team in shots on net in that game with 6. Sergei Bobrovsky was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 4 goals on 31 shots with 27 saves and a .871 save percentage. Their offense has scored 252 goals this season averaging 3.1 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 223 goals against them allowing 2.7 goals per game.

The current betting odds have the Panthers listed as a big favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 4 of a 7 game series between the 1st seeded Maple Leafs and the 3rd seeded Panthers from the Atlantic Division for the 2nd round of the NHL Eastern Conference playoffs. The Maple Leafs are leading this series 2-1 after the Panthers won game 3 at home. The Panthers made it a 2-1 series lead for the Maple Leafs with a 5-4 win in OT in the 3rd game of this series, and the Panthers really needed that win. The Panthers are the defending Stanley Cup champions and after breezing by the Lightning in 5 games in their last series, they find themselves in some trouble this round. They started the series down 2-0 as they lost both road games in Toronto, and they almost put themselves in a big hole as they were down 2-0 right away in game 3. The Panthers eventually found their footing in the 2nd period and mounted a big comeback to win that game in OT, and now they should have some momentum coming into this one. The Maple Leafs did the same thing in the last round as they got out to a 3-0 series lead, but then they lost 2 games in a row. Now that the Panthers have a win under their belt, they have a chance to go right back to square one in this series with a win in the next game and the pressure is on the Maple Leafs to keep their series lead. The Panthers have that playoff experience to lean on from last year when they won the Cup so they have the Maple Leafs right where they want them in this series as the pressure builds, and Woll hasn't looked great in this series for the Maple Leafs either. The Panthers will bring their best effort in this one and ensure they go back to Toronto with the series tied. The best way to place a bet here is on the Panthers to win this game and on the puckline. 

Maple Leafs Panthers Prediction:  Our NHL Pick for Sunday, May 11, 2025 (7:30 pm ET start time) is Panthers 5 Leafs 3.

Don't miss our champion handicappers free picks and expert hockey picks today. And if you enjoyed this Toronto Maple Leafs Florida Panthers prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our weekly NHL predictions and previews.

Toronto Maple Leafs: 24-19 (+11.2 units) on the moneyline as a road underdog of +100 to +200. 16-6 (+8.6 units) on the moneyline off a road loss against a division rival. 76-56 (+14.3 units) on the moneyline when playing against a team with a winning record. 22-15 OVER after 3 or more consecutive overs.

Florida Panthers: 42-39 (-17.7 units) on the moneyline as a home favorite of -200 or less. 99-75 (-6.8 units) on the moneyline off a win in their previous game. 136-107 (-11.8 units) on the moneyline against excellent power play teams- scoring on over 17.5% of their chances. 23-15 OVER after 3 or more consecutive overs. 

Toronto Maple Leafs:  A. Stolarz (G) Day To Day - Upper Body. J. Hakanpaa (D) Out - Knee.

Florida Panthers:  None.

“We had a good first, I thought, and came out in the second and we just didn’t ... [play] direct with what we needed to do. We got back to playing our game in the third, were pressuring them and getting pucks in behind them, going to work. We need to keep doing that." - Craig Berube after his team’s loss against the Panthers in game 3 of this series on Friday.

“The second period was the first block of time in this series that we looked to our identity." - Paul Maurice after his team’s win against the Maple Leafs in game 3 of this series on Friday.

LW Matthew Knies

C Auston Matthews

RW Mitchell Marner

LD Jake McCabe

RD Christopher Tanev

G Joseph Woll

LW Carter Verhaeghe

C Aleksander Barkov

RW Sam Reinhart

LD Gustav Forsling

RD Aaron Ekblad

G Sergei Bobrovsky

Points: M. Marner (102)

Goals: W. Nylander (45)

Assists: M. Marner (75)

GAA: A. Stolarz (2.14)

Points: S. Reinhart (81)

Goals: S. Reinhart (39)

Assists: A. Barkov (51)

GAA: S. Bobrovsky (2.44)

Coaches:

Toronto Maple Leafs: Craig Berube (1st season)

Florida Panthers: Paul Maurice (3rd season)