Toronto Maple Leafs vs Florida Panthers Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/09/2025

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Friday, May 9, 2025

Venue:  Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise, FL

Where to Watch:  TNT, MAX, truTV

DraftKings:  Moneyline:  Leafs +190, Panthers -238; Over/Under:  5.5 goals

Bet365:  Moneyline:  Leafs +195, Panthers -240; Over/Under:  6 goals

BetMGM:  Moneyline:  Leafs +185, Panthers -225; Over/Under:  6 goals

Toronto Maple Leafs:  52-26-4 (1st place, Atlantic Division)

Florida Panthers:  47-31-4 (3rd place, Atlantic Division)

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Toronto Maple Leafs:  8-1-1 last 10

Florida Panthers:  5-5-0 last 10

The Maple Leafs are entering the playoffs with 108 points, a 52-26-4 record overall, and they were 25-13-3 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Florida Panthers in their last game, winning that one at home 4-3. Max Domi, Max Pacioretty, Mitchell Marner, and William Nylander each scored 1 goal for them in that one. Morgan Rielly led the team in assists with 2 while Auston Matthews and Brandon Carlo each led the team in shots on net in that game with 3. Joseph Woll was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 3 goals on 28 shots with 25 saves and a .893 sv percentage. Their offense has scored 268 goals this season averaging 3.3 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 231 goals against them allowing 2.8 goals per game.

The Panthers are entering the playoffs with 98 points, a 47-31-4 record overall, and they were 27-12-2 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Toronto Maple Leafs in their last game, losing that one on the road 4-3. Anton Lundell, Aleksander Barkov, and Brad Marchand each scored 1 goal for them in that one. Eetu Luostarinen led the team in assists with 2 while Anton Lundell, Aaron Ekblad, Gustav Forsling, Niko Mikkola, and Matthew Tkachuk each led the team in shots on net in that game with 3. Sergei Bobrovsky was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 4 goals on 20 shots with 16 saves and a .800 save percentage. Their offense has scored 252 goals this season averaging 3.1 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 223 goals against them allowing 2.7 goals per game.

The current betting odds have the Panthers listed as a big favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 3 of a 7 game series between the 1st seeded Maple Leafs and the 3rd seeded Panthers from the Atlantic Division for the 2nd round of the NHL Eastern Conference playoffs. The Maple Leafs are leading this series 2-0 after winning game 2 at home. The Maple Leafs took a 2-0 series lead with a 4-3 win over the Panthers in the 2nd game of this series and so far they have looked like the better team in this series. They got out to a big lead in game 1 before the Panthers started to make their way back, making it a closer game in the end, and then game 2 was a game that the Panthers couldn't hang onto the slim lead they got. Now the Panthers are going back home for the next 2 games where they have been a much better team this season and they are going to throw everything they have at the Maple Leafs to avoid going into a 3-0 hole. This is a desperate game for the Panthers so they are going to bring their best effort in this one and they are still the defending champions too so they have the playoff experience to lean on in this game and help dig their way out of this 2-0 hole. The Maple Leafs got out to a 3-0 series lead in the last round before the Senators won 2 games in a row to put the pressure on so as bad as it looks right now down 2-0 in the series, the Panthers are still right in this thing with 2 home games on deck and they have the Maple Leafs right where they want them, in position to unravel with their lead. The best way to place a bet here is on the Panthers to win this game and on the puckline. 

Maple Leafs Panthers Prediction:  Our NHL Pick for Friday, May 9, 2025 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Panthers 4 Leafs 1.

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Toronto Maple Leafs: 24-18 (+12.2 units) on the moneyline as a road underdog of +100 to +200. 36-20 (+5.3 units) on the moneyline off a win against a division rival. 76-55 (+15.3 units) on the moneyline when playing against a team with a winning record. 5-2 UNDER in the second round of the playoffs.

Florida Panthers: 141-88 (-8.5 units) on the moneyline as a favorite. 63-59 (-19.1 units) on the moneyline revenging a loss versus opponent as a favorite. 47-47 (-8.4 units) on the moneyline against good starting goalies - saving 91.5% of shots against or more. 48-29 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%).

Toronto Maple Leafs:  A. Stolarz (G) Day To Day - Upper Body. J. Hakanpaa (D) Out - Knee.

Florida Panthers:  None.

“Very calm and cool in net I thought, and made saves. Pucks are coming to the net all the time playing Florida, so he was on his toes and fighting through traffic making the saves that were needed. Very impressed with him tonight.” - Craig Berube on Joseph Woll after his team’s win against the Panthers in game 2 of this series on Wednesday.

“We didn’t love our Game 1 but we liked our game here tonight. We came out on the road and lost two games, but we get to go back home now. There will be lots of stuff we like about our game that we think we can improve on and do more with. We will take a look at it and get better.” - Paul Maurice after his team’s loss against the Maple Leafs in game 2 of this series on Wednesday.

LW Matthew Knies

C Auston Matthews

RW Mitchell Marner

LD Jake McCabe

RD Christopher Tanev

G Joseph Woll

LW Carter Verhaeghe

C Aleksander Barkov

RW Sam Reinhart

LD Gustav Forsling

RD Aaron Ekblad

G Sergei Bobrovsky

Points: M. Marner (102)

Goals: W. Nylander (45)

Assists: M. Marner (75)

GAA: A. Stolarz (2.14)

Points: S. Reinhart (81)

Goals: S. Reinhart (39)

Assists: A. Barkov (51)

GAA: S. Bobrovsky (2.44)

Coaches:

Toronto Maple Leafs: Craig Berube (1st season)

Florida Panthers: Paul Maurice (3rd season)