Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Detroit Red Wings: Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 11/28/2022

by Chuck Sommers

Monday, Nov 28, 2022
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Venue: Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI
Where to watch: BSDET, SN, TVAS

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Maple Leafs -170, Red Wings +145
FanDuel: Maple Leafs -164, Red Wings +136
BetMGM: Maple Leafs -167, Red Wings +140
Caesars: Maple Leafs -165, Red Wings +140

Season record
Maple Leafs: 13-5-5
Red Wings: 11-5-4

What an electric start to the NHL season. So much parity, so many good teams through the first 10-plus games, you have every right to be excited! Of course the Vegas Golden Knights and Boston Bruins (and the New Jersey Devils?) are heading the fun charge here as the top two teams in the league, because of course they are. But never count out the Avalanche, you know they're always going to be hanging around and will be eating worlds once they get everyone healthy. But this is a good time to be playing these hockey games, as well. Look no further than our own Doc's Sports on a 14-7-0 run over the first 30 days of the NHL season. There's also ASA, Inc. posting a 12-5-1 mark through the first month. You know you can trust our champion handicappers to get you across the finish line with your NHL bets. Check out our Best Bets page at bigal.com to see what we're throwing down!

Maple Leafs - Red Wings preview, prediction and analysis


Recent results
Maple Leafs: won 3 straight; won 4-1 at Penguins
Red Wings: won 4 straight; won 4-3 (OT) vs. Coyotes

Once again, we have gotten to the point of a sports season where if you don't look at the standings for a long enough period of time, you are going to be surprised by some teams that you didn't expect to be there. Case in point, the Detroit Red Wings. Winners of four in a row and on a 5 game-point streak, Detroit is looking pretty good right now. Albeit the strength of schedule has not looked kindly upon them with a ton of easy wins over the last couple of weeks, Detroit is still winning games and that is better than what a lot of teams could ask for right now. They will put their four-game winning streak on the line on Monday against the Toronto Maple Leafs, who come into this game on an 8-game point streak and winners of six of their last eight.

Detroit is an interesting bunch just because I think a lot of people anticipated that they would take that next leap into being a potential playoff contender with the amount of young talent that they have at their disposal. And if you look at who is providing the scoring on this group, you'd be a little shocked at who it is. For starters, at the forward spot of course you have the captain Dylan Larkin who has 23 points in 20 games. That's not surprising you have David Perron with 16 points in 20 games, also not surprising. Even Lucas Raymond with 14 points in 20 games. Not surprising. But then you get to the defense. Filip Hronek is the latest name in the league's defense race that is shocking the world right now with 18 points in 20 games. Considering the fact that he is well outperforming the production from fellow blueliner Moritz Seider, the fact that he is the one getting the recognition for his play on the blue line is sort of shocking.

And then you get to the goaltending, which was supposed to be a chance for Alex Nedeljkovic to become the guy in Detroit, but that is absolutely not the case right now period. Ville Husso is off to a 9-2-3 start with a .919 save percentage and a 2.39 goals against average. If you had that on your bingo card after Detroit acquired Husso from the St. Louis Blues during the offseason, then you probably deserve a cookie. A combination of all of those factors is what's put the Red Wings together right now to the point where they are winning games much more efficiently than they have in the past. Of course, when you look at the standings it's not going to be any easier. Right now Detroit is third in the Atlantic division but we know that is not going to stand. Tampa Bay is right behind them, and so is Florida.

The team ahead of them right now, Toronto, has played three more games than Detroit however. That is a very good sign considering Detroit is only five points back of the Maple Leafs going into this game. Toronto seems to be catching lightning in a bottle at the moment with three straight victories, including ending the New Jersey Devils' 13-game winning streak last week. Wins in Minnesota and Pittsburgh have seemingly put Toronto back in place as one of the league's best teams, but of course, things are subject to change.

Prediction


Ultimately, I feel like this game is going to come down to which hot goaltender is going to make the most saves. Husso has been great as of late and I feel with a home crowd behind you in this sense, you can get an early season-defining win here. Red Wings win 3-2

Betting trends


Red Wings are 93-102 at home when the total is 6 or more since 1996.

Red Wings are 56-56 after winning their last game in OT since 1996.

Maple Leafs are 134-142 after scoring 4 goals or more in 2 straight games since 1996.

Projected lines


Maple Leafs:

Michael Bunting -- Auston Matthews -- William Nylander

Calle Jarnkrok -- John Tavares -- Mitchell Marner

Alexander Kerfoot -- Pontus Holmberg -- Denis Malgin

Zach Aston-Reese -- David Kampf -- Pierre Engvall

Mark Giordano -- Justin Holl

Rasmus Sandin -- Timothy Liljegren

Victor Mete -- Mac Hollowell

Matt Murray

Red Wings:

Dominik Kubalik -- Dylan Larkin -- David Perron

Tyler Bertuzzi -- Andrew Copp -- Lucas Raymond

Adam Erne -- Michael Rasmussen -- Oskar Sundqvist

Jonatan Berggren -- Joe Veleno -- Pius Suter

Olli Maatta -- Filip Hronek

Ben Chiarot -- Moritz Seider

Jordan Oesterle -- Jake Walman

Ville Husso

Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert hockey picks today. And if you enjoyed this Toronto Maple Leafs - Detroit Red Wings prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily NHL projections and previews.

Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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