by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, Apr 07, 2022
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Venue: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
Where to watch: Bally Sports Southwest, SNO
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Maple Leafs -150, Stars +130
BetMGM: Maple Leafs -140, Stars +115
Caesars: Maple Leafs -135, Stars +115
Season record
Maple Leafs: 45-19-6
Stars: 40-26-3
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Maple Leafs - Stars preview and analysis
Well, don’t we have quite the pickle in this matchup in trying to determine who wants it more?
In one corner resides the very mad Toronto Maple Leafs doing what they do best, blowing a 5-1 lead in the third and losing 7-6 to the Florida Panthers in overtime. Even when it looks like the Leafs are on the cusp of world domination and about to breakthrough, they revert back to their old ways one more time.
And in the other corner, the Dallas Stars continuing to fight for their playoff lives because they are in a dogfight with the Nashville Predators and Vegas Golden Knights for the two wild-card spots. And somehow even when it seems like they shouldn’t be winning, they keep finding ways to do it.
We’ll just start with the Leafs because why not? There’s nothing this author loves more than to pick at the pain that Toronto fans have to continue to endure. And it’s not the players I have a problem with. Watching Auston Matthews rip 54 goals this season with a realistic chance to hit 60 has been a load of fun and it shows how fun scoring goals can be.
But it’s the people that cover the team and the perception of Toronto itself that annoys me. So when they lose games like they did Tuesday against Florida, it makes it all the more sweet and enjoyable from that aspect. Even Mitch Marner scores twice and Toronto can’t find a way to make anything happen.
“We go from having a chance on a breakaway to go up 6-1 to taking a too-many-men-on ice penalty right after. That starts the snowball,” coach Sheldon Keefe said. “We had pretty terrible penalty killing. I’m not going to focus on all that stuff, I’m going to focus on the fact we played a good hockey game today.”
The good news for the Leafs is they currently sit second in the Atlantic Division with a 3-point cushion on the Tampa Bay Lightning. Should the season end today, Toronto would host the two-time defending Stanley Cup champions in a seven-game series. Imaging Toronto winning and then asking the NHL to take one of their Stanley Cups because they feel obligated.
That wouldn’t happen … would it?
Not if Dallas has something to say about it. The Stars are coming off a 3-2 win over the New York Islanders on Tuesday that leapfrogged them once again ahead of Vegas in terms of points for that second wild-card spot. The Stars have played two fewer games than the Golden Knights and that’s the biggest factor right now in determining who gets that final spot.
Radek Faksa scored the game-winning shorthanded goal, and Jake Oettinger was great in net again to propel the Stars to another victory.
“One (of the three teams) is going to have a hell of a year and miss it,” Dallas coach Rick Bowness said of the West playoff race.
That’s fairly true at this point.
Prediction
There’s no winning here. Either Toronto wins and people gets insufferable further, or Dallas wins, sends a statement and pads the lead in the wild-card picture. Try getting Golden Knights fans to rally around this one. Leafs win 3-2
Betting trends
The Maple Leafs are 12-6 this season following a division game.
The Maple Leafs are 19-12 in non-conference games this season.
The Stars are 11-3 when revenging a loss when the opponent scored four or more goals this season.
The Stars are 19-12 this season after a home game.
Projected lines
Maple Leafs:
Michael Bunting -- Auston Matthews -- Mitchell Marner
Ilya Mikheyev -- John Tavares -- Alexander Kerfoot
William Nylander -- David Kampf -- Pierre Engvall
Nicholas Abruzzese -- Colin Blackwell -- Wayne Simmonds
Morgan Rielly -- Ilya Lyubushkin
TJ Brodie -- Justin Holl
Jake Muzzin -- Mark Giordano
Jack Campbell
Michael Bunting -- Auston Matthews -- Mitchell Marner
Ilya Mikheyev -- John Tavares -- Alexander Kerfoot
William Nylander -- David Kampf -- Pierre Engvall
Nicholas Abruzzese -- Colin Blackwell -- Wayne Simmonds
Morgan Rielly -- Ilya Lyubushkin
TJ Brodie -- Justin Holl
Jake Muzzin -- Mark Giordano
Jack Campbell
Stars:
Jason Robertson -- Roope Hintz -- Joe Pavelski
Vladislav Namestnikov -- Tyler Seguin -- Denis Gurianov
Jacob Peterson -- Jamie Benn -- Alexander Radulov
Michael Raffl -- Radek Faksa -- Luke Glendening
Ryan Suter -- Miro Heiskanen
Thomas Harley -- John Klingberg
Joel Hanley -- Andrej Sekera
Jake Oettinger
Jason Robertson -- Roope Hintz -- Joe Pavelski
Vladislav Namestnikov -- Tyler Seguin -- Denis Gurianov
Jacob Peterson -- Jamie Benn -- Alexander Radulov
Michael Raffl -- Radek Faksa -- Luke Glendening
Ryan Suter -- Miro Heiskanen
Thomas Harley -- John Klingberg
Joel Hanley -- Andrej Sekera
Jake Oettinger
Statistical leaders
Maple Leafs:
Points: Auston Matthews -- 95
Goals: Auston Matthews -- 54
Assists: Mitch Marner -- 57
Goalie: Jack Campbell -- 26-9-5, 2.72 GAA, .913 SV%
Stars:
Points: Joe Pavelski -- 68
Goals: Jason Robertson -- 32
Assists: Joe Pavelski -- 43
Goalie: Jake Oettinger -- 25-12-1, 2.48 GAA, .916 SV%
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
