by Rod Pearson
Friday, Feb 23, 2024
Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Saturday, February 24, 2024
Venue: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
Where to Watch: ESPN+
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline: Leafs +110, Avalanche -130; Over/Under: 6.5 goals
Bet365: Moneyline: Leafs +110, Avalanche -130; Over/Under: 6.5 goals
BetMGM: Moneyline: Leafs +110, Avalanche -130; Over/Under: 6.5 goals
Season Record
Toronto Maple Leafs: 32-16-8 (3rd place, Atlantic Division)
Colorado Avalanche: 35-18-5 (2nd place, Central Division)
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Recent Form
Toronto Maple Leafs: 8-2-0 last 10
Colorado Avalanche: 4-4-2 last 10
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Colorado Avalanche Preview and Analysis
The Maple Leafs are entering this game with 72 points, a 32-16-8 record overall, and they are 17-6-6 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Vegas Golden Knights in their last game, winning that one on the road 7-3. Max Domi led the team in goals scored with 2 while Pontus Holmberg, David Kämpf, Auston Matthews, Jake McCabe, and John Tavares each scored 1 goal for them in that game. Mitchell Marner led the team in assists with 2 while Auston Matthews led the team in shots on net in that game with 6. Martin Jones was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 3 goals on 26 shots with 23 saves and a .885 save percentage. Their offense has scored 210 goals this season averaging 3.8 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 176 goals against them allowing 3.1 goals per game.
The Avalanche are entering this game with 75 points, a 35-18-5 record overall, and they are 22-5-0 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Detroit Red Wings in their last game, losing that one on the road 2-1 in overtime. Nathan MacKinnon scored 1 goal for them in that game. Jack Johnson and Mikko Rantanen each led the team in assists with 1 while Nathan MacKinnon led the team in shots on net in that game with 11. Justus Annunen was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 2 goals on 30 shots with 28 saves and a .933 sv percentage. Their offense has scored 213 goals this season averaging 3.7 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 184 goals against them allowing 3.2 goals per game.
Maple Leafs vs Avalanche Prediction
The current betting odds have the Avalanche listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Avalanche have looked really good in their games this season with their 35-18-5 record overall which has them in 2nd place of their division in the West. They are holding down a playoff spot in their division right now and they have looked a lot better on home ice all year with their 22-5-0 home record. Meanwhile, the Leafs have also looked really good in their games this season with their 32-16-8 record overall which has them in 3rd place of their division in the East and trying to protect the playoff spot they are in. They have also been a good road team with their 17-6-6 road record and they are the much hotter team coming into this one with their 8-2-0 record in their last 10 games. The Leafs have a lot of momentum on their side right now with 6 wins in a row but they have also been on a long road trip and are coming into a tough situation here at altitude after playing back-to-back games on Wednesday and Thursday. The Avalanche haven't been as hot as the Leafs have been lately but they have been such a strong team on home ice all year and they are going to be motivated to bounce back after a tight loss in their last game. The best way to place a bet here is on the Avalanche to win this game.
Maple Leafs Avalanche Prediction: Our NHL Pick for Saturday, February 24, 2024 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Avalanche 3 Maple Leafs 1.
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NHL Betting Trends
Toronto Maple Leafs: 144-93 (-21.2 units) on the moneyline in all games. 48-34 (-12.9 units) on the moneyline after a win by 2 goals or more. 82-61 (-29 units) on the moneyline off a win or tie in their previous game. 19-10 OVER after one or more consecutive overs. 31-14 OVER after scoring 3 goals or more in 5 straight games.
Colorado Avalanche: 161-87 (+13.4 units) on the moneyline in all games. 20-7 (+10.1 units) on the moneyline after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game. 55-29 (+9.6 units) on the moneyline after 1 or more consecutive losses. 34-23 OVER in all games. 15-7 OVER after 1 or more consecutive losses. 12-5 OVER off a close road loss by 1 goal.
Key Injuries
Toronto Maple Leafs: M. Giordano (D) Ques Sat - Personal. C. Jarnkrok (C) Early March - Hand. C. Timmins (D) Out indefinitely - Illness. J. Woll (G) Out indefinitely - Ankle. J. Klingberg (D) out for season - Hip. M. Murray (G) out for season - Hip. J. Muzzin (D) out for season - Spine.
Colorado Avalanche: A. Cogliano (C) Ques Sat - Illness. V. Nichushkin (RW) Out indefinitely - Personal. P. Francouz (G) out for season - Groin. G. Landeskog (LW) out for season - Knee.
Notable Quotes
“We've played good hockey over the course of the season, but we haven't put together a stretch like this.” - Sheldon Keefe after his team’s win against the Golden Knights in their game on Thursday.
“Justus was the reason we got a point. I thought he was really good.” - Jared Bednar after his team’s loss against the Red Wings in their game on Thursday.
Starting Lineups
Toronto Maple Leafs
LW Knies, Matthew
C Matthews, Auston
RW Marner, Mitchell
LD Brodie, TJ
RD Liljegren, Timothy
G Jones, Martin
Colorado Avalanche
LW Drouin, Jonathan
C MacKinnon, Nathan
RW Rantanen, Mikko
LD Toews, Devon
RD Makar, Cale
G Annunen, Justus
Statistical Leaders
Toronto Maple Leafs
Points: A. Matthews (76)
Goals: A. Matthews (52)
Assists: M. Marner (48)
GAA: M. Jones (2.71)
Colorado Avalanche
Points: N. MacKinnon (93)
Goals: N. MacKinnon (34)
Assists: N. MacKinnon (59)
GAA: A. Georgiev (2.90)
Coaches:
Toronto Maple Leafs: Sheldon Keefe (5th season)
Colorado Avalanche: Jared Bednar (8th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
