Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Buffalo Sabres: Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 2/21/2023

by Chuck Sommers

Tuesday, Feb 21, 2023
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Venue: KeyBank Center, Buffalo, NY
Where to watch: HULU, ESPN+, TSN4

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Maple Leafs -170, Sabres +145
FanDuel: Maple Leafs -164, Sabres +136
BetMGM: Maple Leafs -155, Sabres +125
Caesars: Maple Leafs -169, Sabres +143

Season record
Maple Leafs: 34-15-8
Sabres: 28-22-4

The All-Star break is over, the second half of the NHL season can officially begin, and we're bound for what should be a very exciting second half of the hockey season. Basketball and hockey are about to rule the roost in the sports betting world once the Super Bowl is done with, and we should all be very excited for what's to come. When the trade deadline hits and players switch teams, you know things are about to get hectic over these final 30 games or so. One way you can stay tuned with the action is following what our champion handicappers are doing in the world of the NHL. Look at ASA, Inc., reeling in a $6,750 profit off a 17-9-0 run. Al McMordie is also doing well on the ice with a 13-5-0 run and a net profit of $6,050. Scott Rickenbach has also been hanging strong with a lot of betting action, in what's been an unusual year, with a 24-18-0 run and reeling in $5,950. You know this action is going to be great now that games are back and a busy second half if on the horizon. All you need to do is head to our BEST BETS page at bigal.com to find out all of what we're trying to tell you. Make sure you're locked in at bigal.com and go to our Best Bets page to find out what our champion handicappers have to say in the world of the NHL!

Maple Leafs - Sabres preview, prediction and analysis


So here's the question I have for you. When is the last time you looked this late into the NHL season and thought that a game between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Buffalo Sabres would be as must watch variety as one could ever imagine?
 
Because seriously, this is one of the more intriguing mid February games we are ever going to see. You have Toronto, who made the first big blockbuster trade of the trade deadline season by getting Ryan O'Reilly from the St. Louis Blues to bolster the forward group and the defensive play. And then you have Buffalo, a team that could probably benefit from making another move but is also good enough to show that they could very much get back to the playoffs this year and fully accelerate this rebuild.
 
Buffalo is coming off a 4-2 victory over the San Jose Sharks on Saturday in which Buffalo didn't make anything notable happen until late in the third period. Jeff Skinner scored a goal to break the tie in the third, and Alex Tuch added a goal and an assist. Dylan Cozens also scored his 20th goal of the season while Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen made 33 saves.
 
"We were much, much better in the third period. We finally decided to shoot a puck, and we did not through two periods," Buffalo coach Don Granato said. "We made a lot of work for ourselves because we were unwilling to shoot a puck."
 
It truly is incredible to know that Buffalo has been able to play as well as it has this year with a high octane offense and solid goaltending when it mattered most. I'm still unsure if they fully make the playoffs, even though I want them too badly but there is going to be a lot of work that needs to be done in the course of the last 20 or so games for me to start taking this team seriously. But they are absolutely on the right track.
 
Toronto is in a very weird place right now because when I look at this team, they should absolutely be able to mop the floor with whomever they get at the deadline and they should be able to mop the floor with this revamped team. So losing 5-3 to the Chicago Blackhawks on Sunday is not really what I had in mind in such an endeavor, but here we are fresh off the O'Reilly trade and Toronto in a very interesting place to want to put something together.
 
Toronto was too busy worrying about Patrick Kane getting a hat-trick that it didn't get enough from what it needed to play some solid defense. John Tavares scored a goal, as did newcomer Noel Acciari, and Mitch Marner scored his 20th of the season in the loss.
 
"I just thought we were clearly a very tired group right from the start and made tired mistakes," Toronto coach Sheldon Keefe said. "When you're tired, you've got to be really smart and structured and all of that. Some of the clean looks we gave up tonight are the result of not being smart.
 
"Those kind of mistakes you look at, but in terms of the energy and the execution, as a group, we knew this was going to be a tough one today."
 
Prediction
 
This is the time of the year for the Sabres to show they belong. One way to do that is win big-time games at home against a division rival. Sabres 5, Maple Leafs 4

Betting trends


Maple Leafs are 25-19 off a road loss the last 3 seasons.

Maple Leafs are 65-34 after playing a road game the last 3 seasons; 13-10 this season.

Sabres are 10-6 off a road win this season.

Projected lines


Maple Leafs:

John Tavares -- Ryan O'Reilly -- Mitchell Marner

Michael Bunting -- Auston Matthews -- William Nylander

Pierre Engvall -- David Kampf -- Calle Jarnkrok

Zach Aston-Reese -- Noel Acciari - Alexander Kerfoot

Morgan Rielly -- TJ Brodie

Mark Giordano -- Timothy Liljegren

Rasmus Sandin -- Justin Holl

Ilya Samsonov

Sabres:

Jeff Skinner -- Tage Thompson -- Alex Tuch

JJ Peterka -- Dylan Cozens -- Victor Olofsson

Casey Mittelstadt -- Peyton Krebs -- Jack Quinn

Zemgus Girgensons -- Tyson Jost -- Kyle Okposo

Rasmus Dahlin -- Henri Jokiharju

Mattias Samuelsson -- Owen Power

Kale Clague -- Ilya Lyubushkin

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert hockey picks today. And if you enjoyed this Toronto Maple Leafs - Buffalo Sabres prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily NHL projections and previews.

Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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