Toronto Maple Leafs vs Boston Bruins Prediction, Preview and Odds - 03/07/2024

by Rod Pearson

Wednesday, Mar 06, 2024
Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Thursday, March 7, 2024
Venue:  TD Garden, Boston, MA
Where to Watch:  ESPN+


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Moneyline:  Leafs +120, Bruins -142; Over/Under:  6.5 goals
Bet365:  Moneyline:  Leafs +120, Bruins -142; Over/Under:  6.5 goals
BetMGM:  Moneyline:  Leafs +120, Bruins -142; Over/Under:  6.5 goals

Season Record

Toronto Maple Leafs:  35-18-8 (3rd place, Atlantic Division)
Boston Bruins:  36-13-15 (2nd place, Atlantic Division)

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Recent Form
Toronto Maple Leafs:  8-2-0 last 10
Boston Bruins:  4-1-5 last 10



Toronto Maple Leafs vs Boston Bruins Preview and Analysis


The Maple Leafs are entering this game with 78 points, a 35-18-8 record overall, and they are 18-6-6 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Boston Bruins in their last game, losing that one at home 4-1, but this is also the 2nd game of a back-to-back for them with their game against the Buffalo Sabres still to be played on Wednesday. In their game against the Bruins, John Tavares scored 1 goal for them in that game. Ilya Lyubushkin and Morgan Rielly each led the team in assists with 1 while Auston Matthews and Bobby McMann each led the team in shots on net in that game with 5. Joseph Woll was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 4 goals on 27 shots with 23 saves and a .852 save percentage. Their offense has scored 225 goals this season averaging 3.7 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 194 goals against them allowing 3.2 goals per game.


The Bruins are entering this game with 87 points, a 36-13-15 record overall, and they are 19-7-6 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Edmonton Oilers in their last game, losing that one at home 2-1 in overtime. Pavel Zacha scored 1 goal for them in that game. Danton Heinen and Parker Wotherspoon each led the team in assists with 1 while Brad Marchand led the team in shots on net in that game with 5. Linus Ullmark was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 2 goals on 26 shots with 24 saves and a .923 sv percentage. Their offense has scored 213 goals this season averaging 3.3 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 177 goals against them allowing 2.8 goals per game.


Maple Leafs vs Bruins Prediction

The current betting odds have the Bruins listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Bruins have looked really good in their games this season with their 36-13-15 record overall which has them in 2nd place of their division in the East with one of the best records in the entire NHL. They have also looked really good on home ice this year with their 19-7-6 home record. Meanwhile, the Leafs have also looked good in their games this season with their 35-18-8 record overall, but that record only has them in 3rd place of their division in the East and trying to stay out of the Wild Card. They have looked good in their road games this season with their 18-6-6 road record and have been better in those games compared to being on home ice, but they are also in a bad situation here. The Leafs are playing this game on a back-to-back and even though they have been really hot lately, going 8-2-0 in their last 10 games, they are starting to cool off now with a loss right before this back-to-back. That loss was also at home against the Bruins and even though the Bruins have looked terrible lately with their 4-1-5 record in their last 10 games, they have still been improving lately as they are climbing out of their slump. The Bruins are going to bring their best effort for the Leafs as they usually do against their Original 6 rival and will be looking to bounce back from that tight loss at home to the Oilers in their last one. The best way to place a bet here is on the Bruins to win this game. 

Maple Leafs Bruins Prediction:  Our NHL Pick for Thursday, March 7, 2024 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Bruins 4 Leafs 2.
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NHL Betting Trends


Toronto Maple Leafs: 147-95 (-21 units) on the moneyline in all games. 45-41 (-27.4 units) on the moneyline vs. division opponents. 54-35 (-12.6 units) on the moneyline revenging a loss versus opponent. 18-8 OVER revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 3 goals or more. 9-5 OVER revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite.

Boston Bruins: 157-84 (+23.7 units) on the moneyline in all games. 52-26 (+8.7 units) on the moneyline vs. division opponents. 54-27 (+12.5 units) on the moneyline after 1 or more consecutive losses. 6-1 OVER after playing a game where 3 or fewer total goals were scored. 8-5 OVER after losing their previous game in overtime. 

Key Injuries


Toronto Maple Leafs:  C. Timmins (D) Mid March - Illness. D. Kampf (C) Ques Wed - Illness. M. Giordano (D) Out indefinitely - Concussion. J. Klingberg (D) out for season - Hip. M. Murray (G) out for season - Hip. J. Muzzin (D) out for season - Spine.

Boston Bruins:  H. Lindholm (D) Mid March - Lower Body. M. Poitras (C) out for season - Shoulder. M. Lucic (LW) out for season - Ankle.


Notable Quotes


“A few too many mistakes. They just did a little better job around their net than we did around ours. Playing against a team like Boston, and games down the stretch, those are big difference makers. Margins are very small.” - John Tavares after their loss against the Bruins in their game on Monday.


“It felt like we had it. It slipped out of our hands that final minute. I’ve got to take ownership of it as well.” - Linus Ullmark after their loss against the Oilers in their game on Tuesday.


Starting Lineups


Toronto Maple Leafs
LW Knies, Matthew
C Matthews, Auston
RW Marner, Mitchell
LD Rielly, Morgan
RD Lyubushkin, Ilya
G Samsonov, Ilya

Boston Bruins
LW Marchand, Brad
C Coyle, Charlie
RW DeBrusk, Jake
LD Grzelcyk, Matt
RD McAvoy, Charlie
G Ullmark, Linus

Statistical Leaders


Toronto Maple Leafs
Points: W. Nylander (83)
Goals: A. Matthews (53)
Assists: W. Nylander (50)
GAA: M. Jones (2.71)

Boston Bruins
Points: D. Pastrnak (90)
Goals: D. Pastrnak (38)
Assists: D. Pastrnak (52)
GAA: J. Swayman (2.49)

Coaches:
Toronto Maple Leafs: Sheldon Keefe (5th season)
Boston Bruins: Jim Montgomery (2nd season)


Rod Pearson

About the Author:

Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life.  He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years.  In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective.  Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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