Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/03/2026

Game Time: 10:10 pm ET, Friday, July 3, 2026

Venue:  T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA

Where to Watch:  MLB TV

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Blue Jays -125, Mariners +105; Over/Under:  7 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Blue Jays -125, Mariners +105; Over/Under:  7 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Blue Jays -125, Mariners +105; Over/Under:  7 runs

Toronto Blue Jays:  41-46 (3rd place, AL East)

Seattle Mariners:  44-43 (2nd place, AL West)

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Toronto Blue Jays:  3-7 last 10

Seattle Mariners:  5-5 last 10

The Blue Jays are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the New York Mets 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 41-46 record overall and have a road record of 17-21. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Mariners on Friday and they have Thursday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 23rd in the MLB with a .700 OPS. Braydon Fisher was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Dylan Cease is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 4-4 with a 3.02 ERA this season. His team won 3 of their last 4 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 4 ER, 0 HR, and 5 BB with 10 SO on 4 hits through 4.2 IP against the Texas Rangers.

The Mariners lost their 3-game series against the Cleveland Guardians 2-1. They enter this game with a 44-43 record overall and have a home record of 24-19. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Blue Jays on Friday with the series finale of their series against the Los Angeles Angels still to be played on Thursday. The Mariners won the 1st game of that series on Monday and the 2nd game on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 25th in the MLB with a .697 OPS. Bryce Miller is their starting pitcher on Thursday while Luis Castillo is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 3-6 with a 4.93 ERA this season. His team lost 3 of their last 4 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 earned run, 0 homers, and 1 walk with 4 strikeouts on 4 hits through 6 innings pitched against the Cleveland Guardians.

The current betting odds have the Blue Jays listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Blue Jays haven't looked good in their games this season with their 41-46 record overall which has them right in the middle of the AL East. They haven't been a great road team either with their 17-21 road record this year. Meanwhile, the Mariners have looked good in their games this season with their 44-43 record overall which has them right near the top of the AL West. They have looked good in their own ballpark too with their 24-19 home record this season. The Mariners are 5-5 in their last 10 games and have looked better than the Blue Jays who are only 3-7 in their last 10 games, but the Blue Jays do have the better pitching matchup here and can take advantage of that. The Blue Jays are going with Cease in this one and he has looked good this season. He is 4-4 with a 3.02 ERA and the team has been having success with him lately. He did give up 4 earned runs in his last start, but that hasn't been a common theme for him this year and the team has won 3 of their last 4 games with him starting. The Mariners are going with Castillo in this one and he hasn't looked great this season. He is 3-6 with a 4.93 ERA and he has been giving up quite a few runs lately. He is coming off a great start in which he only gave up 1 earned run, but that hasn't been a common theme for him lately and the team has also lost 3 of their last 4 games with him starting. The Blue Jays will be looking to pull themselves out of this slump with one of their better starters on the mound here and the Mariners have been really up and down themselves lately. Look for the Blue Jays to take advantage of Castillo's recent troubles and edge this one out. The best way to place a bet here is on the Blue Jays to win this game. 

Blue Jays Mariners Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Friday, July 3, 2026 (10:10 pm ET start time) is Blue Jays 3 Mariners 2.

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Toronto Blue Jays: 219-210 (-5.2 units) on the moneyline in all games. 165-162 (-10.3 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 72-68 (-10.8 units) on the moneyline vs. AL teams scoring 4.4 or less runs/game on the season. 7-2 UNDER on the road vs. AL teams scoring 4.4 or less runs/game on the season. 

Seattle Mariners: 127-85 (+15.1 units) on the moneyline in home games. 77-60 (+9.2 units) on the moneyline vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better. 54-36 (+15.8 units) on the moneyline vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better. 19-13 UNDER vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better.

Toronto Blue Jays:  J. Sanchez (RF) Ten Day IL - Ankle. M. Scherzer (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Back. J. Mantiply (RP) Sixty Day IL - Knee. L. Sosa (2B) Ten Day IL - Wrist. J. Berrios (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. Barger (RF) Ten Day IL - Elbow. C. Ponce (SP) Sixty Day IL - Knee. A. Santander (RF) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. Y. Garcia (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. B. Francis (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Seattle Mariners:  L. Raley (RF) Day To Day - Elbow. R. Refsnyder (DH) Ten Day IL - Knee. W. Wilson (3B) Sixty Day IL - Thumb. M. Brash (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Lat. C. Criswell (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. B. Donovan (3B) Ten Day IL - Groin. C. Vargas (RP) Sixty Day IL - Lat. L. Evans (SP) Sixty Day IL - Arm.

“That was great, man. He’s seen some tough pitching this series, both starters and relievers. He stayed on that fastball. I think he knew he got it even more so than us, based on his reaction. He’s been doing that. Big swing for us, big swing for him.” - John Schneider after his team’s win against the Mets in their game on Wednesday. 

“The homers are great, no question. Two- and three-run numbers are awesome. But I do think that to be consistently productive offensively, you need to be able to score in multi-dimensional ways. And tonight, we went a different route.” - Dan Wilson after his team’s win against the LA Angels in their game on Tuesday.

Nathan Lukes (L) RF

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R) 1B

Kazuma Okamoto (R) 3B

Daulton Varsho (L) CF

Alejandro Kirk (R) C

Yohendrick Piñango (L) LF

Ernie Clement (R) 2B

Sean Keys (L) DH

Andrés Giménez (L) SS

J.P. Crawford (L) 3B

Julio Rodríguez (R) CF

Dominic Canzone (L) DH

Randy Arozarena (R) LF

Josh Naylor (L) 1B

Cal Raleigh (S) C

Luke Raley (L) RF

Cole Young (L) 2B

Colt Emerson (L) SS

Batting Average:  Luis Urías (.400)

Hits:  Ernie Clement (96)

Home Runs:  Kazuma Okamoto (19)

RBI:  Kazuma Okamoto (54)

Stolen Bases:  Andrés Giménez (10)

Wins:  Jeff Hoffman (5)

Saves:  Louis Varland (17)

ERA:  Simeon Woods Richardson (0.00)

Batting Average:  Randy Arozarena (.283)

Hits:  Julio Rodríguez (89)

Home Runs:  Luke Raley (14)

RBI:  Cole Young (41)

Stolen Bases:  Randy Arozarena (19)

Wins:  George Kirby (7)

Saves:  Andrés Muñoz (15)

ERA:  Matt Brash (0.54)

Managers:

Toronto Blue Jays: John Schneider (5th season)

Seattle Mariners: Dan Wilson (3rd season)