Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins Prediction, Preview and Odds - 10/04/2023

Game Time: 4:38 pm ET, Wednesday, October 4, 2023

Venue:  Target Field, Minneapolis, MN

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Blue Jays +120, Twins -142; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Blue Jays +110, Twins -130; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Blue Jays +115, Twins -140; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Toronto Blue Jays:  89-73 (3rd place, AL East)

Minnesota Twins:  87-75 (1st place, AL Central)

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Toronto Blue Jays:  4-6 last 10

Minnesota Twins:  7-3 last 10

The Blue Jays are entering this series on a 2 game losing streak and lost their 3-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays 2-1 in their last series of the regular season. They finished the regular season with an 89-73 record overall and had a road record of 46-35. This is the 2nd game of a best 2 out of 3 game series with the Twins on Wednesday for the AL Wild Card Series and they lost game 1 of this series on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 11th in the MLB with a .746 OPS. Kevin Gausman was their starting pitcher on Tuesday while José Berríos is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 11-12 with a 3.65 ERA this season. His team lost their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 4 ER, 1 HR, and 3 BB with 10 Ks on 5 hits through 6 IP against the New York Yankees.

The Twins are entering this series off a loss but won their 3-game series against the Colorado Rockies 2-1 in their last series of the regular season. They finished the regular season with an 87-75 record overall and had a home record of 47-34. This is the 2nd game of a best 2 out of 3 game series with the Blue Jays on Wednesday for the AL Wild Card Series and they won game 1 of this series on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 7th in the MLB with a .753 OPS. Pablo López was their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Sonny Gray is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 8-8 with a 2.79 ERA this season. His team lost their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 earned run, 0 homers, and 1 BB with 4 strikeouts on 3 hits through 4 innings played against the Oakland Athletics.

The current betting odds have the Twins listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This will be the 2nd game of a best of 3 series to see who advances to the ALDS and the Twins now have a 1-0 series lead after winning the 1st game on Tuesday. They have a chance to end this series with 1 more win at home and they have a solid starter on the mound to lead the way as Sonny Gray will be starting. He has been really consistent all season not giving up many runs in his starts while the Jays are going with Berrios in this game and he has had a history of giving up a ton of runs in his starts going back to last season. He is going to give up runs in this game and the Blue Jays weren't playing that great to end the season either. They only put up 1 run on Tuesday and they will struggle to put more runs up in this game with the way their offense has been performing lately. The best way to place a bet here is on the Twins to win this game. 

Blue Jays Twins Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Wednesday, October 4, 2023 (4:38 pm ET start time) is Twins 4 Blue Jays 2.

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Toronto Blue Jays: 37-29 (+6.7 units) on the moneyline when the money line is +125 to -125. 22-10 (+6.4 units) on the moneyline against AL Central opponents. 22-9 UNDER against AL Central opponents. JOSE BERRIOS is 10-3 UNDER when the money line is +125 to -125. 

Minnesota Twins: 87-75 (-9 units) on the moneyline in all games. 66-57 (-8.8 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. SONNY GRAY is 23-12 UNDER in day games and 6-2 UNDER in playoff games.

Toronto Blue Jays:  A. Cimber (RP) Early Oct - Shoulder. D. Jansen (C) Early Oct - Finger. H. Danner (RP) Out indefinitely - Oblique. O. Lopez (2B) out for season - Oblique.

Minnesota Twins:  J. Polanco (SS) Ques Tues - Ankle. D. Keuchel (SP) out for season - Calf. C. Correa (SS) Early Oct - Foot. R. Lewis (SS) Early Oct - Hamstring. N. Gordon (2B) Early Oct - Shin. B. Buxton (DH) Early Oct - Hamstring. J. Gallo (1B) Early Oct - Foot. J. Miranda (3B) out for season - Shoulder. O. Ortega (SP) out for season - Back. J. De Leon (RP) out for season - Elbow. T. Mahle (SP) out for season - Elbow.

“You don’t want to say like an over sense of urgency, but these guys know it’s going to take everybody to get to Game 3.” - John Schneider after his team’s loss against the Twins in game 1 of this series.

“I thought the place was going to split open and melt, honestly. It was out of this universe out there on the field. The fans took over the game. They helped us win today.” - Rocco Baldelli after his team’s win against the Blue Jays in game 1 of this series.

George Springer (R) RF

Brandon Belt (L) DH

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R) 1B

Bo Bichette (R) SS

Cavan Biggio (L) 2B

Alejandro Kirk (R) C

Kevin Kiermaier (L) CF

Matt Chapman (R) 3B

Daulton Varsho (L) LF

Edouard Julien (L) 2B

Jorge Polanco (S) 3B

Royce Lewis (R) DH

Max Kepler (L) RF

Alex Kirilloff (L) 1B

Carlos Correa (R) SS

Ryan Jeffers (R) C

Matt Wallner (L) LF

Michael A. Taylor (R) CF

Batting Average:  Ernie Clement (.380)

Hits:  Bo Bichette (175)

Home Runs:  Vladimir Guerrero (26)

RBI:  Vladimir Guerrero (94)

Stolen Bases:  Whit Merrifield (26)

Wins:  Chris Bassitt (16)

Saves:  Jordan Romano (36)

ERA:  Hagen Danner (0.00)

Batting Average:  Royce Lewis (.309)

Hits:  Carlos Correa (118)

Home Runs:  Max Kepler (24)

RBI:  Max Kepler (66)

Stolen Bases:  Willi Castro (33)

Wins:  Joe Ryan (11)

Saves:  Jhoan Duran (27)

ERA:  Brock Stewart (0.65)

Managers:

Toronto Blue Jays: John Schneider (2nd season)

Minnesota Twins: Rocco Baldelli (5th season)