Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins Prediction, Preview and Odds - 10/03/2023

Game Time: 4:38 pm ET, Tuesday, October 3, 2023

Venue:  Target Field, Minneapolis, MN

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Blue Jays -105, Twins -115; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Blue Jays -110, Twins -110; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Blue Jays -110, Twins -110; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Toronto Blue Jays:  89-73 (3rd place, AL East)

Minnesota Twins:  87-75 (1st place, AL Central)

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Toronto Blue Jays:  4-6 last 10

Minnesota Twins:  7-3 last 10

The Blue Jays are entering this series on a 2 game losing streak and lost their 3-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays 2-1 in their last series of the regular season. They finished the regular season with an 89-73 record overall and had a road record of 46-35. This is the series opener of a best 2 out of 3 game series with the Twins on Tuesday for the AL Wild Card Series and they have Monday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 11th in the MLB with a .746 OPS. Wes Parsons was their starting pitcher on Sunday while Kevin Gausman is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 12-9 with a 3.16 ERA this season. His team lost 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 ER, 0 HR, and 2 BB with 5 Ks on 3 hits through 7 IP against the New York Yankees.

The Twins are entering this series off a loss but won their 3-game series against the Colorado Rockies 2-1 in their last series of the regular season. They finished the regular season with an 87-75 record overall and had a home record of 47-34. This is the 1st game of a best 2 out of 3 game series with the Blue Jays on Tuesday for the AL Wild Card Series and they had Monday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 7th in the MLB with a .753 OPS. Bailey Ober was their starting pitcher on Sunday while Pablo López is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 11-8 with a 3.66 ERA this season. His team won their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 3 earned runs, 0 homers, and 1 BB with 6 strikeouts on 5 hits through 4.1 innings played against the Oakland Athletics.

The current betting odds have the Twins listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This will be the 1st game of a best of 3 series to see who advances to the ALDS. The Blue Jays finished the regular season with a better record than the Twins but the Twins will have home advantage in this series since they won the AL Central. The Twins finished a few games behind the Blue Jays with their overall record but they have been the hotter team coming into the playoffs. The Twins ended the season winning their last series while the Blue Jays lost their last series. The Blue Jays strength is their offense and they have been hitting well lately but their pitching has been terrible and they have been losing in high scoring games. The Twins have been putting up a ton of runs themselves lately and they are going to have their way with this Blue Jays bullpen while the Jays struggle more against the Twins solid pitching staff. The Twins were also a lot better in their home games all year so their offense is going to perform well here. The best way to place a bet here is on the Twins to win this game. 

Blue Jays Twins Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Tuesday, October 3, 2023 (4:38 pm ET start time) is Twins 6 Blue Jays 3.

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Toronto Blue Jays: 37-29 (+6.7 units) on the moneyline when the money line is +125 to -125. 22-10 (+6.4 units) on the moneyline against AL Central opponents. 62-29 OVER when the total is 7 or less. 35-18 OVER after 6 consecutive games versus division rivals. 

Minnesota Twins: 87-75 (-9 units) on the moneyline in all games. 9-18 (-19.2 units) on the moneyline at home when the total is 7 to 7.5. 17-9 OVER at home when the total is 7 to 7.5. 14-7 OVER after 3 consecutive games versus an interleague opponent. 23-11 OVER after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less.

Toronto Blue Jays:  A. Cimber (RP) Early Oct - Shoulder. D. Jansen (C) Early Oct - Finger. H. Danner (RP) Out indefinitely - Oblique. O. Lopez (2B) out for season - Oblique.

Minnesota Twins:  J. Polanco (SS) Ques Tues - Ankle. D. Keuchel (SP) out for season - Calf. C. Correa (SS) Early Oct - Foot. R. Lewis (SS) Early Oct - Hamstring. N. Gordon (2B) Early Oct - Shin. B. Buxton (DH) Early Oct - Hamstring. J. Gallo (1B) Early Oct - Foot. J. Miranda (3B) out for season - Shoulder. O. Ortega (SP) out for season - Back. J. De Leon (RP) out for season - Elbow. T. Mahle (SP) out for season - Elbow.

“We’ll be ready to roll. We’ve been through a lot, but this is why you do it.” - John Schneider after his team’s loss against the Rays in their last game of the regular season on Sunday.

“Yes, we want to win this game today. But the more important situation to prepare for is the playoff game. Our pitching staff is lined up and ready to go. We have everything that we’re looking for, that we need. It’s an exciting time.” - Rocco Baldelli after his team’s loss against the Rockies in their final game of the season on Sunday.

Whit Merrifield (R) RF

Brandon Belt (L) DH

Bo Bichette (R) SS

Davis Schneider (R) 2B

Cavan Biggio (L) 1B

Santiago Espinal (R) 3B

Daulton Varsho (L) CF

Tyler Heineman (S) C

Cam Eden (R) LF

Donovan Solano (R) 3B

Jordan Luplow (R) LF

Kyle Farmer (R) SS

Max Kepler (L) DH

Ryan Jeffers (R) C

Edouard Julien (L) 2B

Willi Castro (S) CF

Alex Kirilloff (L) 1B

Matt Wallner (L) RF

Batting Average:  Ernie Clement (.380)

Hits:  Bo Bichette (175)

Home Runs:  Vladimir Guerrero (26)

RBI:  Vladimir Guerrero (94)

Stolen Bases:  Whit Merrifield (26)

Wins:  Chris Bassitt (16)

Saves:  Jordan Romano (36)

ERA:  Hagen Danner (0.00)

Batting Average:  Royce Lewis (.309)

Hits:  Carlos Correa (118)

Home Runs:  Max Kepler (24)

RBI:  Max Kepler (66)

Stolen Bases:  Willi Castro (33)

Wins:  Joe Ryan (11)

Saves:  Jhoan Duran (27)

ERA:  Brock Stewart (0.65)

Managers:

Toronto Blue Jays: John Schneider (2nd season)

Minnesota Twins: Rocco Baldelli (5th season)