Game Time:  6:10 PM ET, Thursday, May 5th,  2022 

Venue: Progressive Field, Cleveland, Ohio

Where to Watch: MLB TV

DraftKings: Moneyline: Blue Jays -145, Guardians +125; O/U 8

 BetMGM: Moneyline:  N/A

PointsBet: Moneyline:  Blue Jays -154, Guardians +130; O/U 8

Blue Jays: 15-10, 2nd place AL EAST

Guardians: 10-12, 2nd place AL CENTRAL

An American League matchup of East vs Central.  The NY Yankees, Blue Jays, and TB Rays are off to the usual AL East race… they beat up on each other all season until one or two of them pull away at the end.  This year the Blue Jays are stacked.  The line up is dangerous and like every year they need the pitching to pull their weight all the way through if they want to win the tough AL East.  The Cleveland Guardians have a much more gentle path to possible greatness this season… The AL Central is as filled with afterthoughts as they usually are.  The Minnesota Twins, the Cleveland Guardians and the Chicago White Sox will fight with each other all year… then one day in late summer we all will notice that just the Twins are deep out in front and the other guys will have no shot at even a wild-card.  The Guardians may have a dangerous line-up but their action off the mound is average on their best nights. Seems like an easy call… but we have to check the pitching matchup before we bet on the Jays.

The Toronto Blue Jays have won 5 of their last 10 games.  They went 5 Over and 5 Unders during that stretch.  They went 0-2 against the New York Yankees (with one more to play), 2-1 against the Houston Astros, 3-1 against the Boston Red Sox, and 0-1 against the Houston Astros during that stretch.  .500 does not get much accomplished for a team of promise… for a team of talent… for a team that needs this season to keep the fans coming through the gate.  The problem at the moment is the plate has gone dry and the batting numbers are plummeting… To make matters worse the pitching hit a rough patch… The Jays get quality starts from the top couple of starters, but a mixed bag from everyone else.  Something must happen to right the ship or they will soon be in third place looking up at the TB Rays.  Catcher Danny Jansen is out with injury until mid-May… he only played 3 games and had 2 home runs in 7 at bats… that could be part of the struggle.

The Cleveland Guardians have won only 3 of their last 10 games.  They went 5 Over and 5 Unders.  They had a nice 3-game win streak against the Oakland A’s… but that followed 0-4 from the Los Angeles Angels, and 0-3 from the New York Yankees during this span.  How the Guardians got the 10 wins on the season that they have is easy to figure out… They are hitting the ball wonderfully… showing up among the top-5 in several big categories… How the Guardians lost the 12 games they lost?... That is easy as well.  Bad pitching and sloppy fielding.   

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The Blue Jays are 20th in runs scored with 3.80 per game,  9th in batting average with .244, and 18th in OBP with .302.

The Guardians are 6th in runs scored with 4.59 per game, 3rd in batting average with .251, and 13th in OBP with .314.

The Blue Jays’ pitchers are tossing a team ERA of 3.83 for 19th place, 13th in WHIP with 1.20, and have amassed 13 errors for 17th place in fielding.

The Guardians pitchers are tossing a team ERA of 3.87 for 20th place, 11th in WHIP with 1.17, and land just behind the Jays for 14th in fielding with 12 errors (less games so far, higher percentage)

Our prediction for Thursday May 5th is... Blue Jays 5 - Guardians 2

This is Blue Jays and the Under time… don’t bet em both… pick your favorite.  The accumulated numbers above are based on a very very small season worth of sample size… this is baseball… the Guardians will drop offensively if they are anything like the team that played by a different name… The Blue Jays will go up in offensive numbers if they play anything like they did last season.  The time to start betting on the Jays is now… and against the Guardians is ALWAYS

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Toronto has 16 Overs and 44 Unders on the road when the money line is -125 to +125 the last 3 seasons.

Toronto is 5-2 against the Guardians the last 3 seasons.

Blue Jays: C Danny Jansen (oblique) Out

Guardians: Nothing of significance

The Blue Jays are still deciding who will take the mound for them (Jose Berrios is likely) .  So watch the guy that every fan in the stands will be watching first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr… The league has been waiting for the power hitter to reach just one level higher and become a real superstar… Is this the year?

The Guardians will start RHP Aaron Civale, 0-2, 10.67 ERA, 14 strikeouts in 14 innings.  This 26 year old has a 10.67 ERA with a 1.95 WHIP… He will be on a very short hook… the team is hoping he can return to the promise he showed in limited use since 2019… but oh boy a 10.67 ERA throwing to Vladimir Guerrero is a recipe for fireworks!

Blue Jays: CF George Springer, SS Bo Bichette, 1B Vladimir Guerrero, LF Lourdes Gurriel JR, RF Ramiel Tapia, 3B Matt Chapman, DH Zach Collins, C Alejandro Kirk, 2B Santiago Espinal

Guardians: CF Myles Straw, RF Steven Kwan, 3B Jose Ramirez, 1B Josh Naylor, 2B Ernie Clement, DH Franmill Reyes, SS Andres Jiminez, C Luke Maile, LF Richie Palacios

 

Blue Jays: Charlie Montoyo

Guardians: Terry Francona

Mostly cloudy throughout the day… then around game time it should be sunny and in the low 70’s.  Humidity at 76% with gentle winds of 13 mph.