Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, Odds and Preview - 07/29/2021

Game Time: 7:10 pm ET, Thursday,  July 29, 2021

Venue:  Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts 

Where to Watch: MLB Network, 

Blue Jays:   49-47  (4th place, American League East)

Red Sox:  62-39 (1st place, American League East)

DraftKings:   Blue Jays -110, Red Sox -115; Over/Under:  10 runs

BetMGM:   Blue Jays -110, Red Sox -115; Over/Under 10 runs

Key Injuries:

Blue Jays:  Corey Dickerson (foot) Out, Danny Jansen (hamstring), Out

Red Sox:  Marwin Gonzalez (hamstring) Out, Danny Santana (groin) Out



Recent Lineups:

C Springer (CF)

Vlad Guerrero jr.  (1B)

M Simien (2B)

B Bichette (SS)

T Hernandez (DH)

L Gurriel jr. (LF)

R Grichuk (RF)

C Biggio (3B)

A Kirk (C)

K Hernandez (SS)

R Devers (3B)

J Martinez (LF)

H Renfroe (RF)

C Vazquez (C)

A Verdugo (CF)

K Plaweki (DH)

B Dalbec (1B)

M Chavis (2B)

Team1:

Batting Average and RBI  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.  (.326) (80)

Home Runs and Hits :  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (32) (114)

Stolen Bases:  Bo Bichette  (14)

Wins:  Hyun Jin Ryu (9)

ERA:  Robbie Ray (3.13)



Red Sox:

Batting Average:  Xander Bogaerts (.309)

Hits:  J.D. Martinez (108)

Home Runs and RBI:  Rafael Devers (27) (81)

Stolen Bases: Christian Vazquez (8)

Wins and ERA :  Nathan Eovaldi (9) (3.49)



Managers:



Blue Jays:  Charlie Montoya (3rd season)

Red Sox: Alex Cora (3rd season)

The Blue Jays are 4-5 over their last 9 games.  Why nine games and not ten?  Game 2 (Tuesday) of a 4 game stand got rained out.   If you had Boston Red Sox tickets for Tuesday night's game, and you didn't get a refund, then you were there for a doubleheader on Wednesday.  Rained out July games are a bummer for fans.  If you did not have a buyer guarantee and chose a personal resale transaction, make sure to got face value on that ticket.  In the Blue Jays last ten games they notched 6 Unders and 4 Overs.

The Boston Red Sox are 7-3 over their last ten (Wednesday's doubleheader excluded) and leading the majors. They beat up on the Yankees last week taking 3 games in a four game series.  Over their last ten games the Red Sox notched 8 Unders, 1 Over, and 1 Push.  The O/U number is inflated a little to account for the slugging and strong offense in recent Boston plate appearances.

The season series so far is Red Sox 7 Blue Jays 4 (excluding Wednesdays' doubleheader which you should check out).  The Jays are trending down having lost the last couple against the Sox and burning through quality pitchers to do it. 

The Toronto Blue Jays as a team are second in batting average at .265 and fifth in runs scored. (thanks Vlad Guerrero Jr.) Pitching is their soft spot tied for 19th league wide, 12th in ERA at 4.03.  They give up runs 19th in the league. If they want to contend (next year) they'll need to find an ace in the farm system or deal for one.  All this offense is going to waste.

The Boston Red Sox 

The Boston Red Sox also have a potent offense. They are 4th in batting average .257 and third in runs scored.  Boston pitching isn't much better than Toronto (except for all the extra wins). They are 13th in ERA  at 4.07 and 16th in runs given up.  The difference in record has to be described as timeliness.  Boston hitters provide run support on nights the pitchers struggle and Boston's pitchers throw well when the runs aren't coming.



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The scheduled duel for Thursday's game (the last of four) pits Blue Jays lefty Hyun Jin Ryu (9-5, 3.44 ERA, WHIP 1.18) against Red Sox lefty Eduardo Rodriguez (7-5, 5.23 ERA, WHIP 1.35). I give the edge here to Ryu, he has more innings pitched, more wins, and a better ERA.  Plus this is the last game of a 4 game series with a doubleheader coming the day before.  This is the game Boston should drop.  The Blue Jays hitters will be quite comfortable in Fenway after 27 innings (possibly more, Wednesday double header results not in) in 48 hours.  I look for them to shell Fenway's bleachers off Rodriguez and the tired bullpen that will follow him.  

Blue Jays:  The Blue Jays are 2-3 in their last 5.  They have gone 3 Unders and 2 Overs in the last 5.

Red Sox: The Red Sox have hit the Under 5 times in a row!  They have gone 4-1 in wins, but only 1-4 against the spread.

Our MLB Pick for Thursday's game is Blue Jays 8 Boston 5  This explosion of offense should be good for an Over as well.

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