Toledo Rockets vs. Ohio Bobcats: MAC Championship Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 12/3/2022

Time: Noon ET

Venue: Ford Field, Detroit, MI

Where to watch: ESPN

DraftKings: Toledo -2

FanDuel: Toledo -1.5

BetMGM: Toledo -1.5

Caesars: Toledo -2.5

Toledo: 7-5 (5-3 MAC)

Ohio: 9-3 (7-1 MAC)

Toledo: lost 20-14 at Western Michigan

Ohio: won 38-14 vs. Bowling Green

Nothing like good MACtion on an early Saturday morning. This is going to be a very fun MAC championship game between the Toledo Rockets and the Ohio Bobcats. Now normally I would say that I would rather want a team with a better record to face the hottest team in the conference, but I'm not going to be all mad about this kind of match-up. Because you should absolutely take the over for two offenses that are bound to put up a bunch of points. We're talking about the top two offenses in the conference and you should be enjoying how this one plays out.

Thanks to owning the tiebreaker over Eastern Michigan after defeating the Eagles 27-24 back on October 29th, Toledo had just enough despite losing its final two games to get to the conference championship game. It wasn't the most appealing of finishes to the regular season to get to this point, but Toledo did just enough in the early part of conference play to get themselves in prime position to win a championship. Toledo quarterback Tucker Gleason was horrendous in this game, putting it mildly completing 13 of 38 passes for 200 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. And yet somehow, Toledo only lost by 6 to Western Michigan.

Think of how badly you have to play in order to only lose by one touchdown to a team that you probably should have won by at least 10 to 13 points. Toledo was actually figured by 8 in that game on the road against Western Michigan. Somehow still lost that game, and only lost by 6 despite playing that badly. I think that goes to show you just how bad Western Michigan is this year because there is no resilience on the other side. Toledo didn't do itself any favors the week prior with a 42-35 loss to Bowling Green. if only Bowling Green was in the same division as Toledo, then Bowling Green would have been playing in the conference championship game despite losing to Ohio of all teams. Again, conference football is weird.

So while I respect what Toledo has done to this point and while I respect the commitment to trying and being a better team, defensively they're not good, and right now the offense is struggling really badly. Not really what you want to have to happen when you are going into a championship game against the hottest team in the conference, sitting at 9-3 with seven straight victories, the latest being a 38-14 victory over Bowling Green.

But if there's one major problem for Ohio going into this one, it's going to be the quarterback position. Because the worst possible case for Ohio happened two weeks ago when quarterback Kurtis Rourke was pronounced out for the rest of the season due to a season-ending knee injury. So it will be CJ Harris stepping in the biggest game of the year for Ohio. The good news is that Harris look like he's stepped in flawlessly to help lead Ohio to victory last week against Bowling Green. He ran for three touchdowns and he threw for one in the dominant victory. Ohio went on to score 28 points in the second quarter against a very stout Bowling Green team.

Harris isn't the talented thrower that Rourke is, but at least he's shown he has some ability to keep plays alive and make big plays happen with his legs rather than his arm. So if Ohio has any chance of winning this game it seems like it's a little bit more amplified.

even though Ohio is without its star quarterback, there is not enough good fortune in the world for Toledo to think they can pull off this kind of upset. They are just too deficient on both sides of the ball right now that even if the overall does happen, their defense does not have enough to contain this high-powered Ohio offense. And that doesn't matter who the quarterback is. Ohio by 21

Toledo is 22-8 ATS after scoring 14 points or less in its last game since 1992.

Ohio is 2-12 ATS on the road after 3 straight games where they committed 1 turnover or less since 1992.

Ohio is 8-0 ATS against conference opponents this season.

Passing: Dequan Finn -- 1,973 yards, 21 TD, 12 INT

Rushing: Jacquez Stewart -- 566 yards, 3 TD

Receiving: Jerjuan Newton -- 711 yards, 9 TD

Passing: Kurtis Rourke -- 3,256 yards, 25 TD, 4 INT

Rushing: Sieh Bangura -- 884 yards, 11 TD

Receiving: Sam Wiglusz -- 814 yards, 11 TD