Time to keep an eye on the XFL

by Vegas Writer

Thursday, Feb 23, 2023
Now that the eight-team XFL has a week under its belt, it's time to start making a move on the weekly betting lines.

The way I see it, this is a league that will be fueled by which the teams that can control possessions, the teams that can execute the speciality extra points, and those coaches who show aggressiveness with the 4th-and-15 onside kicks. 

Also keep in mind that travel shouldn't play too much into what you're thinking. The teams are centralized out of Arlington, Texas, and then fly to the cities they're playing in weekly. It'll take a few weeks to determine true homefield advantages for these teams.

Truth is, there was no surprise Arlington was one of the favorites to win the league, considering the league is based there.

I think after the first week, one overreaction from bettors will be that the teams are pretty evenly matches with three of the four games finishing as one-score games that could've very easily gone the opposite direction with different winners.

Orlando was the only team to serve a beatdown, stomping Houston, 33-12.

Favorites closed Week 1 with marks of 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS, and the average margin of victory was 7.5 points. Toss out Houston's 19-point demolition, and the average margin of victory was 3.0 points per game.

I can't say whether the edge goes to the underdogs or favorites just yet, but I do like the idea of investigating every Over until the books get a better handle on the defensive units.

Overs went 3-1 in Week 1, and it's the defensive units that are going to have adjust weekly to those aggressive coaches with tricks up their sleeves. After Week 1, we've seen balanced offenses that can control the clock, but that can strike quick, too.

There was an average of 40.0 points per game in Week 1, with the posted totals averaging 36.125 per game.

and this week only one game hits the 40-point matk, the Sunday night game between Arlington and Houston. That's two Texas teams with little to no travel, again, with the teams based out of Arlington all week.

Week 2 should be a bit more interesting, and I get things underway with my XFL NORTH DIVISION GAME OF THE MONTH, as St. Louis visits Seattle. I have a free winner on the total, but my big play from the North is Thursday's side winner.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

© 2023 Al McMordie's BigAl.com. All Rights Reserved.