With the college football season at the halfway point or just past, there are a number of teams still stuck in limbo. Time becomes a commodity for these squads still trying to get over the hump. And, as we inch closer to November, the window for success starts to close and that means a number of programs need to make a move.
When doing my research for the upcoming college card, I decided to take a look at those schools that found themselves in a must win situation. It was my opinion that teams playing their seventh game of the season fit that criteria if they owned a 3-3 SU record. At that specific stage, the last thing any program wants to do is drop to 3-4 SU with a loss especially when a victory pushes them to 4-3 SU and on a much better path.
Thankfully, with the help of my college football database, the same one that was featured in the December 13th, 2010, issue of the ESPN Insider magazine, I’ve been able to isolate and profit from a number of early season technical sets that have performed very well. Here is a game seven system that has been money. Take a look:
Since 1980, PLAY ON any game seven high-priced favorite of -12 or more provided they hold a 3-3 SU record provided their opponent carries a team won/loss percentage of .500 or less.
41-Year ATS Record = 73-44-3 ATS for 62.3 percent
This Week’s Play = MISSISSIPPI STATE
Off last Saturday’s embarrassing 49-9 home loss to the Crimson Tide, the Bulldogs find themselves with a 3-3 SU mark on the season and staring at home game against a ranked UK team on deck. Head coach Mike Leach’s kids don’t want to go into that battle against the Wildcats with a 3-4 SU record and they will do whatever it takes to beat up on a Commodores bunch that busts in with a 2-5 SU mark and off last week’s heart-breaking road loss to the Gamecocks.
There are a couple of parameters than can be added to this general system that really makes it pop. If both teams enter this contest without confidence off straight up losses, this situation tightens up to a rewarding 29-12 ATS. As stated, Mississippi State takes the field off their 40-point home loss to Alabama and Vanderbilt arrives off its one-point road loss at South Carolina which means the Bulldogs fit this tightener perfectly.
MSU is looking to get a move on. Good luck with the Bulldogs on Saturday.