by Jazz Ray
Saturday, May 23, 2026Positive regression to the mean is something that all successful organizations have to contend with from one season to the next. For many teams, the upcoming 2026/27 season brings heightened expectations after a successful 2025 campaign. DraftKings Sportsbook and most other books have released their season win totals and after highlighting three teams in my last article that I thought would go over their posted win total, this time around I'm going to explore three teams that I feel overachieved last season and who are poised for regression this year.
Detroit Lions Under 10.5 Wins
Detroit's 2026 win total is set at 10.5 at DraftKings, but it's carrying -115 juice to the under. The Lions had another decent season in 2025, but they face one of the NFL's most difficult schedules this year, including grueling NFC North battles and other difficult non-conference games. Jared Goff is an above average quarterback, in my opinion, but key defensive pieces have left, which thins out a unit that struggled in several categories last season. There are question marks surrounding the offensive line as well, so a drop to 8 or 9 wins looks like the most likely outcome to me in this loaded conference, where potentially close games may not bounce their way again.
Denver Broncos Under 9.5 Wins
Denver posted 14 wins in 2025/26 and its remarkable campaign pushed it to the top of the AFC West. The Broncos' season win total is set at 9.5 and around -105 to the under. Many will be quick to back another big campaign for Denver, but I'll issue some caution. The Broncos benefited from one of the easiest schedules in the league, but the 2026 schedule is much more difficult and it raises serious questions about sustainability, in my opinion. Quarterback Bo Nix has shown plenty of promise, but his supporting cast remains a weak point, despite additions like Jaylen Waddle. Denver "surprised" many teams last year, but the playbook is now out on the Broncos coming into the season. Was Denver's 2025/26 campaign an outlier? Possibly, but either way, an 8 or 9 win season looks like the most victories they'll achieve, rather than posting ten or more.
New England Patriots Under 9.5 Wins
Like the Broncos, the New England Patriots also enjoyed a better-than-expected season which culminated in a Super Bowl appearance. The Pats have opened at 9.5 wins with the under favored. Not many would argue, though, that the Patriots benefited from likely the "easiest" schedule in the league, and plenty of fortunate calls and bounces on the way to the Super Bowl. But, a much tougher 2026 campaign points to plenty of upcoming struggles. Roster depth across the board is concern and regression often occurs after unexpected deep playoff runs. 8 or 9 wins looks more probable to me, rather than another 10-plus win season.
Don't believe the hype on these three teams! Natural regression and demanding schedules combine and make the "under" on their season win totals the correct call. As I stated in my last article as well, remember that futures carry risk, and you always have to consider whether you can afford to, or even want to, tie up a portion of your bankroll for the entire year. That said, if you enjoy making these types of wagers, these three picks are my top teams to go under their season win total in 2025/26.
Detroit Lions Under 10.5 Wins
Detroit's 2026 win total is set at 10.5 at DraftKings, but it's carrying -115 juice to the under. The Lions had another decent season in 2025, but they face one of the NFL's most difficult schedules this year, including grueling NFC North battles and other difficult non-conference games. Jared Goff is an above average quarterback, in my opinion, but key defensive pieces have left, which thins out a unit that struggled in several categories last season. There are question marks surrounding the offensive line as well, so a drop to 8 or 9 wins looks like the most likely outcome to me in this loaded conference, where potentially close games may not bounce their way again.
Denver Broncos Under 9.5 Wins
Denver posted 14 wins in 2025/26 and its remarkable campaign pushed it to the top of the AFC West. The Broncos' season win total is set at 9.5 and around -105 to the under. Many will be quick to back another big campaign for Denver, but I'll issue some caution. The Broncos benefited from one of the easiest schedules in the league, but the 2026 schedule is much more difficult and it raises serious questions about sustainability, in my opinion. Quarterback Bo Nix has shown plenty of promise, but his supporting cast remains a weak point, despite additions like Jaylen Waddle. Denver "surprised" many teams last year, but the playbook is now out on the Broncos coming into the season. Was Denver's 2025/26 campaign an outlier? Possibly, but either way, an 8 or 9 win season looks like the most victories they'll achieve, rather than posting ten or more.
New England Patriots Under 9.5 Wins
Like the Broncos, the New England Patriots also enjoyed a better-than-expected season which culminated in a Super Bowl appearance. The Pats have opened at 9.5 wins with the under favored. Not many would argue, though, that the Patriots benefited from likely the "easiest" schedule in the league, and plenty of fortunate calls and bounces on the way to the Super Bowl. But, a much tougher 2026 campaign points to plenty of upcoming struggles. Roster depth across the board is concern and regression often occurs after unexpected deep playoff runs. 8 or 9 wins looks more probable to me, rather than another 10-plus win season.
Don't believe the hype on these three teams! Natural regression and demanding schedules combine and make the "under" on their season win totals the correct call. As I stated in my last article as well, remember that futures carry risk, and you always have to consider whether you can afford to, or even want to, tie up a portion of your bankroll for the entire year. That said, if you enjoy making these types of wagers, these three picks are my top teams to go under their season win total in 2025/26.
