by Jazz Ray
Saturday, May 16, 2026If you like wagering on the NFL and don't mind tying up a small portion of your bankroll for a few months, then betting on team's season win totals is one of the most popular options for betting fans. In this article I'm going to highlight three teams that I believe show value on the over as far as their projected win total is concerned (Odds in parenthesis from DraftKings Sportsbook)
Chicago Bears over 9.5 (+110)
I think the Bears are worth a "second look" to exceed their 2026 win total of 9.5, which pays plus-money odds. The Bears almost earned the No. 1 NFC seed last year and they return most of their core players. Ben Johnson continues to help Caleb Williams evolve into a legitimate MVP candidate, and the NFC North would appear "winnable." A couple of months ago, I was "down" on the Bears' outlook, but have since started to change my view. Chicago's schedule features what I believe to be several different favorable matchups. The Bears have addressed some defensive issues and along with their core continuity carrying over, I believe 11 or 12 wins is the most likely outcome. Chicago appears primed to make another run for the division title, and a minimum of 10 wins appears very attainable to me. The +110 price may not stick around long, though, as the plus-money price reflects market skepticism, with a possible correction imminent.
New York Jets over 5.5 (-115)
Not much is expected of the Jets this season, but with a favorable schedule and revamped roster, everything points to some minor improvement in 2026, in my opinion. Last year's major setbacks were mostly due to instability at the quarterback position, and major defensive lapses. Enter veteran quarterback Geno Smith, who will bring that much-needed stability under center, albeit on the back-half of his career. David Bailey, Kenyon Sadiq, and Omar Cooper Jr. are all interesting draft additions that should be able to contribute almost immediately. Scheduling does indeed play a part in this wager, with weak opponents like the Dolphins, Raiders, Browns and Titans already circled on the calendar. I think the veteran talent brought in at key positions, along with the new talented additions, will combine to help the Jets comfortably clear six or seven wins. New York will still be a bottom-feeder regardless, but a slightly better bottom-feeder than it was last season!
Tennessee Titans over 6.5 (-110)
Like the Jets, the Titans were a disappointment last year, but they also show potential for improvement in 2026. Robert Saleh has a knack of maximizing potential with limited rosters (especially on the defensive side). Cam Ward enters his second year and should be able to take the "next step" with new weapons to utilize (plus a year's experience under his belt). The AFC South appears to potentially be competitive this season, but Tennessee has a legitimate shot at competing for the division title, in my opinion. The Titans also benefit from a favorable schedule, with many "winnable" games that Saleh will look to take advantage of with the experience he brings to the table. The roster and coaching has been upgraded and the starting quarterback appears ready for further progression; 7 or 8 wins appears very attainable to me.
Manageable schedules, coaching upgrades, and talent gains make these three overs (Bears at +110, the Jets close to even and the Titans at -110), my three strongest picks to go over their posted win totals for the 2026 campaign. Of course, futures carry risk, and you always have to consider whether you can afford to, or even want to, tie up a portion of your bankroll for the entire season. That said, if you enjoy making these types of wagers, I think these three selections offer positive edge for disciplined bettors. Also, please remember to shop around and bet responsibly.
Chicago Bears over 9.5 (+110)
I think the Bears are worth a "second look" to exceed their 2026 win total of 9.5, which pays plus-money odds. The Bears almost earned the No. 1 NFC seed last year and they return most of their core players. Ben Johnson continues to help Caleb Williams evolve into a legitimate MVP candidate, and the NFC North would appear "winnable." A couple of months ago, I was "down" on the Bears' outlook, but have since started to change my view. Chicago's schedule features what I believe to be several different favorable matchups. The Bears have addressed some defensive issues and along with their core continuity carrying over, I believe 11 or 12 wins is the most likely outcome. Chicago appears primed to make another run for the division title, and a minimum of 10 wins appears very attainable to me. The +110 price may not stick around long, though, as the plus-money price reflects market skepticism, with a possible correction imminent.
New York Jets over 5.5 (-115)
Not much is expected of the Jets this season, but with a favorable schedule and revamped roster, everything points to some minor improvement in 2026, in my opinion. Last year's major setbacks were mostly due to instability at the quarterback position, and major defensive lapses. Enter veteran quarterback Geno Smith, who will bring that much-needed stability under center, albeit on the back-half of his career. David Bailey, Kenyon Sadiq, and Omar Cooper Jr. are all interesting draft additions that should be able to contribute almost immediately. Scheduling does indeed play a part in this wager, with weak opponents like the Dolphins, Raiders, Browns and Titans already circled on the calendar. I think the veteran talent brought in at key positions, along with the new talented additions, will combine to help the Jets comfortably clear six or seven wins. New York will still be a bottom-feeder regardless, but a slightly better bottom-feeder than it was last season!
Tennessee Titans over 6.5 (-110)
Like the Jets, the Titans were a disappointment last year, but they also show potential for improvement in 2026. Robert Saleh has a knack of maximizing potential with limited rosters (especially on the defensive side). Cam Ward enters his second year and should be able to take the "next step" with new weapons to utilize (plus a year's experience under his belt). The AFC South appears to potentially be competitive this season, but Tennessee has a legitimate shot at competing for the division title, in my opinion. The Titans also benefit from a favorable schedule, with many "winnable" games that Saleh will look to take advantage of with the experience he brings to the table. The roster and coaching has been upgraded and the starting quarterback appears ready for further progression; 7 or 8 wins appears very attainable to me.
Manageable schedules, coaching upgrades, and talent gains make these three overs (Bears at +110, the Jets close to even and the Titans at -110), my three strongest picks to go over their posted win totals for the 2026 campaign. Of course, futures carry risk, and you always have to consider whether you can afford to, or even want to, tie up a portion of your bankroll for the entire season. That said, if you enjoy making these types of wagers, I think these three selections offer positive edge for disciplined bettors. Also, please remember to shop around and bet responsibly.
