by Team Del Genio
Wednesday, Sep 30, 2026The San Diego Padres entered the postseason as one of the hottest teams in baseball, and much of their good stretch run is a result of their improved hitting.
In the last month, they are averaging 5.5 runs per game with a .280 batting average, a .343 on-base percentage, and a .456 slugging percentage in those 26 games. They won for the fourth time in their previous five games in a 9-4 win against Arizona on Sunday to finish the regular season. The Padres had a 12-2-1 mark to the over after winning their previous game. They had played twenty-seven of their forty-six games this year over the number at home after winning their previous game. They had an 8-1-1 mark to the over after playing a game where they scored seven or more runs. At home at Petco Park, they had played eight straight overs.
They were expected to face the Cubs’ Matthew Boyd in Game 1 of their best-of-three wildcard sereis. The lefty had a 10-5 record with a 3.91 era and a 1.21 whip in 22 starts. He was getting by despite only striking out 18.5% of the batters he has faced, ranking in the lowest 23rd percentile in MLB. Opposing hitters were getting a barrel rate on 7.7% of their batted balls against him, ranking in the lowest 46th percentile. Boyd’s teams had played twenty-one of their thirty-five games on the road when the oddsmakers installed them as a money line underdog priced up to +150 and he is their starting pitcher.
Chicago ended a two-game losing streak with a 6-2 win at Boston on Sunday to close out their regular season. The Cubs had played twenty-six of their previous forty-one games over the total on the road after winning their previous game. They stayed on the road where they had played forty-five of their seventy-seven games this year over the total, and they had played five of their previous seven games on the road over the number. They had played ten of their previous fifteen games on the road over the total when the oddsmakers installed the over/under at 7 or 7.5. Chicago had played thirty-two of their fifty-three games on the road over the number this year when the oddsmakers installed them as a money line underdog priced up to +125 or as a money line favorite priced up to -125. They had played twenty-three of their previous thirty-five games over the total against winning teams.
The Cubs would face the Padres’ Michael King tonight. The right-hander had a 12-10 record with a 3.21 era and a 1.18 whip in 32 starts. His walk rate of 9.2% ranked in the lowest 40th percentile and could get him into trouble given the pressure of the postseason. Opposing hitters were getting a barrel rate on 8.2% of their batted balls against him, ranking in the lowest 37th percentile. The Cubs were averaging 5.4 runs per game against National League opponents with a .254 batting average, a .340 on-base percentage, and a .438 slugging percentage. Chicago had played thirty-three of their fifty-six games this year over the total on the road against opponents using a right-handed starting pitcher.
We designated the over for this game as our National League Total of the Month. When the Padres scored their eighth run in the bottom of the seventh inning, the over was in. San Diego roughed up Boyd by scoring four runs against him in his four innings of work before the Cubs went to the bullpen. The Padres scored another four runs against those Chicago relievers. It was fortunate since King was outstanding for San Diego by giving up only one hit and no earned runs in his seven innings.
Good luck - TDG.
In the last month, they are averaging 5.5 runs per game with a .280 batting average, a .343 on-base percentage, and a .456 slugging percentage in those 26 games. They won for the fourth time in their previous five games in a 9-4 win against Arizona on Sunday to finish the regular season. The Padres had a 12-2-1 mark to the over after winning their previous game. They had played twenty-seven of their forty-six games this year over the number at home after winning their previous game. They had an 8-1-1 mark to the over after playing a game where they scored seven or more runs. At home at Petco Park, they had played eight straight overs.
They were expected to face the Cubs’ Matthew Boyd in Game 1 of their best-of-three wildcard sereis. The lefty had a 10-5 record with a 3.91 era and a 1.21 whip in 22 starts. He was getting by despite only striking out 18.5% of the batters he has faced, ranking in the lowest 23rd percentile in MLB. Opposing hitters were getting a barrel rate on 7.7% of their batted balls against him, ranking in the lowest 46th percentile. Boyd’s teams had played twenty-one of their thirty-five games on the road when the oddsmakers installed them as a money line underdog priced up to +150 and he is their starting pitcher.
Chicago ended a two-game losing streak with a 6-2 win at Boston on Sunday to close out their regular season. The Cubs had played twenty-six of their previous forty-one games over the total on the road after winning their previous game. They stayed on the road where they had played forty-five of their seventy-seven games this year over the total, and they had played five of their previous seven games on the road over the number. They had played ten of their previous fifteen games on the road over the total when the oddsmakers installed the over/under at 7 or 7.5. Chicago had played thirty-two of their fifty-three games on the road over the number this year when the oddsmakers installed them as a money line underdog priced up to +125 or as a money line favorite priced up to -125. They had played twenty-three of their previous thirty-five games over the total against winning teams.
The Cubs would face the Padres’ Michael King tonight. The right-hander had a 12-10 record with a 3.21 era and a 1.18 whip in 32 starts. His walk rate of 9.2% ranked in the lowest 40th percentile and could get him into trouble given the pressure of the postseason. Opposing hitters were getting a barrel rate on 8.2% of their batted balls against him, ranking in the lowest 37th percentile. The Cubs were averaging 5.4 runs per game against National League opponents with a .254 batting average, a .340 on-base percentage, and a .438 slugging percentage. Chicago had played thirty-three of their fifty-six games this year over the total on the road against opponents using a right-handed starting pitcher.
We designated the over for this game as our National League Total of the Month. When the Padres scored their eighth run in the bottom of the seventh inning, the over was in. San Diego roughed up Boyd by scoring four runs against him in his four innings of work before the Cubs went to the bullpen. The Padres scored another four runs against those Chicago relievers. It was fortunate since King was outstanding for San Diego by giving up only one hit and no earned runs in his seven innings.
Good luck - TDG.
