The defending Super Bowl champions may have a 5-2 record, yet the Philadelphia Eagles are facing scrutiny for not being dominant enough in their victories and struggling with finding their identity on offense. They went into their game at home against the New York Giants, despite the oddsmakers installing them as a favorite of 7.5 points.
The Eagles had ended a two-game losing streak with a 28-22 victory on the road against Minnesota the previous week. The Eagles won the turnover battle by taking the ball away twice and not giving the ball away to the Vikings. Philadelphia had covered the point spread in six of their previous nine games after playing a game where they had a +2 or better net turnover margin. They had covered the point spread in fourteen of their previous twenty-one games after winning their previous game, and they have covered the point spread in ten of their last fifteen games after beating their previous opponent by six points or less. Wide receiver A.J. Brown starred last week with Jalen Hurts passing for 326 yards, yet he was out for this game with a hip injury.
The offensive line had not been quite as good so far this season, and center Cam Jurgens was going to miss this game due to an injury. Yet the oddsmakers had still installed the Eagles as a favorite of more than a touchdown, despite the Giants upsetting them 17 days ago by a 34-17 score as an eight-point underdog on October 9th. Philadelphia had covered the point spread in five of their last six opportunities to avenge a loss on the road to their opponent.
The Eagles get their bye week next week, and that tends to be advantageous for NFL teams heading into their break. NFL teams heading into their bye week playing a division opponent are 54-25-1 ats in those last eight NFL games, and favorites of seven or more points heading into their bye are 56-27-2 ats in those last eighty-five games when the oddsmakers installed them as a favorite of seven or more points. Philadelphia had covered the point spread in eight of their previous nine games before their bye week, and they had covered the point spread in six games in a row against division opponents.
New York lost for the second time in their previous three games in their 33-32 loss at Denver as an 8.5-point underdog last week. The Giants blew a 19-point lead in the fourth quarter to lose that game. Rebounding from that emotional loss may be difficult, especially with head coach Brian Daboll likely on the hot seat this season. New York had covered the point spread in two of their previous seven games on the road after giving up 30 or more points in their previous game.
Rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart passed for 283 yards and three touchdowns in that game, yet he only completed 15 of his 33 passes and threw an interception. Now Dart will play an NFL team for the first time that has already played against him, and can develop a specific game plan from that experience. The Giants were undermanned on defense with starting safety Javon Holland and starting linebacker Paulson Adebo out for this game, and star linebacker Brian Burns is questionable with a hip injury. That looked like bad news for a defense that was giving up 30.0 points per game and 412 yards per game on the road.
New York had covered the point spread in seven of their previous twenty games on the road, and they had covered the point spread in three of their previous eleven games on the road when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog of up to seven points. They had only covered the point spread three times in their previous ten games against winning teams.
The Eagles raced out to a 21-10 lead going into halftime in their eventual 38-20 victory against the Giants that avenged their earlier loss against their NFC East rivals. Philadelphia outgained New York by +181 net yards by gaining 427 yards and holding the Giants to only 246 total yards. At 6-2, the Eagles are in first place in the NFC East by 2 1/2 games and seem safely on pace to make the playoffs to defend their Super Bowl championship. When considering that Philadelphia rose to dominance in the second half of last season before blowing out Kansas City in the Super Bowl, counting them out before Halloween this season may be quite presumptuous.
Good luck - TDG.