The NBA's Home Stretch

by AAA Sports

Tuesday, Feb 27, 2024
ARE WE HEADED FOR A LAKERS-WARRIORS ELIMINATION GAME?

Two teams who view themselves as championship contenders appear looks like they’ll have to slum it this season in the Play-In Tournament. Worse yet, they might be the 9-10 teams in the Western Conference, which would be the equivalent of a Taylor Swift concert in the local high school gym. There are a couple of dozen games left in the regular season, and as of this writing, the Lakers and Warriors are four games behind the No. 8 Mavericks. Just when they would need to start thinking about getting Steph Curry and LeBron James rest for the playoffs, they’ll have to play them big minutes to avoid falling out of the playoffs completely. Both teams are now at about +4000 to win the title, but even those odds seem generous considering the mountain they would have to climb just to make it to the playoffs proper.

WHAT’S HAPPENING AT THE TOP OF THE WEST?

Down the stretch they come, and everything points to a photo finish among the top four teams. Neither Minnesota nor Oklahoma City are showing any signs of slowing down, but Denver and the Clippers each have far more experience. Oddsmakers still like the defending-champ Nuggets to come out of the West (+190), with the Thunder (+800) getting little respect for a team that has both an MVP candidate in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and a Rookie of the Year possible in Chet Holmgren, plus young legs up and down the rotation. The Clippers were the best team in the league just prior to the All-Star Game, but have faded just a bit.

SPEAKING OF MVPs, WHO’S IN THE MIX?

With injured Joel Embiid out of the running, it’s time to round up the usual suspects. MVP talk now begins and ends with Nikola Jokic, who is now a solid if not prohibitive favorite at -160. In any game the Nuggets play, everything offensively and defensively seems to revolve around Jokic. He is the man, and it’s hard to envision Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Doncic, or Giannis Antetokounmpo doing anything about it in the last month of the season.

CAN THE CELTICS FINALLY GET IT DONE?

They have the most talented starting five in the league, by a large margin, and they’re on pace to win 65 games. They’ll have a home-court advantage in every series they play. Oddsmakers like their chances to win it all (+250). They have two all-NBA players in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Yet they carry the weight of the Finals loss to Golden State two years ago and the embarrassment of losing to the Play-In Heat last year. They are a 3-point-shooting team with a coach (Joe Mazzulla) who says weird things, loves analytics, and thinks 40-plus 3s is not enough from behind the line. So there are doubts that will persist until they hang championship banner 18.

IF BOSTON FALTERS, WHO COMES OUT OF THE EAST?

Who knows? Everyone else in the East has issues. Boston may take too many 3s, but the Cavaliers worry that they’re taking too few. What should be a great backcourt (Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland) struggle at times when they are on the court together. Milwaukee has had problems defensively all season after emptying the cupboard for Damien Lillard. The Knicks are plenty deep – but only when injured starters O.J. Anunoby, Julius Randle and Donovan Mitchell get back, and no one knows when that will be. And then there’s Miami, which plays 82 games only to comply with NBA rules and then turns it on in the postseason.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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